Subject. This article deals with the problems of development of promising sectors of the region's economy. Objectives. The article aims to assess the scenarios of regional industry changes considering a case study of the automotive industry. Methods. For the study, we used the bootstrap and wavelet transform techniques. Results. The article describes the inertial, pessimistic (5% percentile) and optimistic (95% percentile) scenarios for the development of the automotive industry and shows the range of possible deviations of industry dynamics in the case of the influence of external and internal factors. Conclusions. The proposed methodology and tools make it possible to fine-tune the forecast of industry dynamics, take into account its possible deviations from a predetermined path during the year, and put management decisions into proactive impact effect.
Lindgren M., Bandhold H. Stsenarnoe planirovanie: svyaz' mezhdu budushchim i strategiei [Scenario Planning: The Link Between Future and Strategy]. Moscow, Olimp-Biznes Publ., 2009, 233 p.
Naumov I.V. [Scenario design of the flow of finances between banking and institutional sectors in the regional system]. Zhurnal ekonomicheskoi teorii = Russian Journal of Economic Theory, 2018, vol. 15, iss. 4, pp. 621–632. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Uzyakov M.N., Sapova N.N., Khersonskii A.A. [A toolkit for macrostructural regional forecasting: methodological approaches and results of computations]. Problemy prognozirovaniya = Studies on Russian Economic Development, 2010, no. 2, pp. 3–20. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Minakir P.A., Prokapalo O.M. Regional'naya ekonomicheskaya dinamika. Dal'nii Vostok: monografiya [Regional economic dynamics. The Russian Far East: a monograph]. Khabarovsk, Economic Research Institute of Far Eastern Branch of RAS Publ., 2010, 304 p.
Minakir P.A., Antonova N.E., Bardal A.B. et al. Tikhookeanskaya Rossiya – 2030: stsenarnoe prognozirovanie regional'nogo razvitiya: monografiya [The Pacific Russia – 2030: scenario forecasting for regional development: a monograph]. Khabarovsk, Economic Research Institute of Far Eastern Branch of RAS Publ., 2010, 560 p.
Rusina A.N., Karpycheva O.V. [Modeling of scenario conditions for forecasting staffing requirements of the region's economy]. Ekonomika truda = Russian Journal of Labor Economics, 2017, vol. 4, no. 4, pp. 309–322. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Kleiner G. [Sustainability of Russian economy in the mirror of the system economic theory (Part 2)]. Voprosy Ekonomiki, 2016, no. 1, pp. 117–138. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Grinin L.E., Korotaev A.V. Issledovanie kondrat'evskikh, zhyuglyarovskikh i vekovykh tsiklov, global'nykh krizisov, mal'tuzianskikh i postmal'tuzianskikh lovushek [The study of Kondratieff, Juglyar and age-old cycles, global crises, Malthusian and post-Malthusian traps]. Moscow, URSS Publ., 2012, 478 p.
Adizes I.K. Upravlenie zhiznennym tsiklom korporatsii [Managing Corporate Lifecycles: How to Get to and Stay at the Top]. St. Petersburg, Piter Publ., 2007, 383 p.
Rosenberg N. Exploring the Black Box: Technology, Economics and History. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1994, 274 p.
Serkov L.A., Petrov M.B., Kozhov K.B. [Modeling the interaction of the regions of Russia and the Republic of Belarus in the sphere of the processing industry]. Journal of Applied Economic Research, 2021, vol. 20, no. 2, pp. 217–240. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Orlova I.V., Filonova E.S. [Analysis and forecasting the nominal wage of the population of the Russian Federation taking into account its regional differentiation]. Fundamental'nye issledovaniya = Fundamental Research, 2021, no. 5, pp. 67–74. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Timushev E.N. [Intraregional (local) fiscal decentralization and investment in fixed assets in Russia]. Problemy prognozirovaniya = Studies on Russian Economic Development, 2021, vol. 32, no. 1, pp. 87–97. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Ringland G. [Future as Unexplored Domain: Connecting Foresight to the Making Strategic Decisions]. Forsait = Foresight-Russia, 2013, vol. 7, no. 4, pp. 60–69. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Semenychev V.K., Khmeleva G.A., Korobetskaya A.A. [Proposed methodology and tools of econophysics to analyze mesodynamics of economic sectors in Russian regions]. Ekonomicheskii analiz: teoriya i praktika = Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, 2020, vol. 19, iss. 7, pp. 1192–1217. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Agaeva L.K., Burets Yu.S., Egorova K.S. et al. Rossiiskie regiony v usloviyakh sanktsii: vozmozhnosti operezhayushchego razvitiya ekonomiki na osnove innovatsii: monografiya [Russian regions in the context of sanctions: opportunities for advanced development of the economy on the basis of innovations: a monograph]. Samara, SSUE Publ., 2019, 446 p.