Bogdanova A.L.Central Economics and Mathematics Institute of RAS (CEMI RAS), Moscow, Russian Federation annabogd@gmail.com ORCID id: not available
Subject The article examines leading indicators of economic dynamism. Objectives The study assesses whether it is possible to make forecasts more accurate if the specifics of some economic development phases are considered when using leading indicators. Methods The study employs analytical and statistical approaches and comparative analysis and the methodology for analyzing cyclical indicators Conference Board. Results The reliability of GDP forecast proved to be relatively higher than the feasibility of leading indicators of industrial production dynamism. The feasibility of the indicators differs depending on a phase of a long wave. There are fewer false signals at some phases. This may be due to the specifics of the phase, at which mature sectors are retrofitted with new wave technologies in a predictable manner. Having analyzed whether leading indicators can predict sectoral trends, I traced patterns arising at the macroscopic level, i.e. the aggressive phase ensures more accurate and reliable forecasts. Most errors are made at the phase of maturity, whether it be sectors or the macroeconomic level. Conclusions and Relevance Although leading indicators of economic dynamism may give false signals, the frequency of such signals depends in a phase of a long wave. The analysis of GDP and some sectors reveals such dependency.
Keywords: crisis, economic security, leading indicators, long waves
References:
Loungani P., Trehan B. Predicting When the Economy Will Turn. FRBSF Economic Letter, 2002, March 15, pp. 1–3. URL: Link
Levanon G., Manini J.-C., Ozyildirim A. et al. Using a Leading Credit Index to Predict Turning Points in the U.S. Business Cycle. The Conference Board Economics Program Working Paper, 2011, no. 11-05. URL: Link
Ng E.C.Y. Forecasting US Recessions with Various Risk Factors and Dynamic Probit Models. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2012, vol. 34, iss. 1, pp. 112—125. URL: Link
Smirnov S.V. [The system of leading indicators for Russia]. Voprosy Ekonomiki, 2001, no. 3, pp. 23–42. (In Russ.)
Smirnov S.V. [Economic growth and economic crises in Russia: The end of the 1920s–2014]. Voprosy Ekonomiki, 2015, no. 5, pp. 28–47. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Stock J.H., Watson M.W. Understanding Changes in International Business Cycle Dynamics. National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER Working Paper, 2003, no. 9859. URL: Link
Estrella A., Mishkin F. Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators. Review of Economics and Statistics, 1998, vol. 80, no. 1, pp. 45–61.
Bogdanova A.L. [Leading indicators as an instrument of economic forecasting]. Ekonomicheskaya nauka sovremennoi Rossii = Economics of Contemporary Russia, 2018, no. 2, pp. 35–56 (In Russ.)
Perez C. Tekhnologicheskie revolyutsii i finansovyi kapital. Dinamika puzyrei i periodov protsvetaniya [Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages]. Moscow, Delo Publ., 2011, 231 p.
Grishin V.I., Ustyuzhanina E.V., Komarova I.P. [GDP as an indicator of socio-economic development: Problems of measurement and use]. Rossiiskii ekonomicheskii zhurnal = Russian Economic Journal, 2018, no. 4, pp. 34–48. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Blomberg S.B., Harris E.S. The Commodity-Consumer Price Connection: Fact or Fable? Economic Policy Review, 1995, vol. 1, no. 3, pp. 21–38.
Steindel C., Cecchetti S.G., Chu R. The Unreliability of Inflation Indicators. Current Issues in Economics and Finance, 2000, vol. 6, no. 4, pp. 1–6. URL: Link
Banerjee A., Marcellino M. Are There Any Reliable Leading Indicators for US Inflation and GDP Growth? International Journal of Forecasting, 2006, vol. 22, iss. 1, pp. 137–151. URL: Link
Hirooka M. Innovation Dynamism and Economic Growth. A Nonlinear Perspective. Cheltenham (UK), Northampton (MA), Edward Elgar, 2006, 448 p.
Dement'ev V.E. Dlinnye volny v ekonomike: investitsionnyi aspekt. Preprint, no. WP/2012/297 [Long waves in the economy: An investment aspect]. Moscow, CEMI RAS Publ., 2012, 59 p.
Men'shikov S.M., Klimenko L.A. Dlinnye volny v ekonomike: kogda obshchestvo menyaet kozhu [Long waves in the economy: When the society changes its face]. Moscow, LENAND Publ., 2014, 288 p.
Dement'ev V.E. Struktura korporativnoi sistemy i dlinnye volny v ekonomike [The structure of the corporate system and long waves in the economy]. Moscow, CEMI RAS Publ., 2011, 211 p.
