Subject The study focuses on the development of crisis indicators for the Russian financial market. Objectives The aim is to develop such crisis indicators that can predict a crisis one, three, and six months in advance. Methods The methodology includes the use of binary choice models that are often used in such types of studies. To test the significance of coefficients, we apply the Bayesian approach in logit modeling. We determined crisis and non-crisis periods on the basis of the EMP crisis indicator. Results The main indicators of crisis, which can be used for the Russian financial market are the money multiplier, M2 to foreign reserves ratio, growth of imports, market conditions, increase in stock prices, growth of M2 to GDP, the ratio of foreign liabilities to assets. The highest predictive capability of the indicators is within 1 to 6-month time-lags. Conclusions Significant factors in the logit model were approximately equal when using the Bayesian approach for lags of 1 and 6 months. Thus, they show resistance to selecting the model of the study. Therefore, the offered indicators may be useful to predict crisis situations in Russia.
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