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Finance and Credit
 

The problem of choosing the exchange rate regime for the Russian economy: conceptual views

Vol. 21, Iss. 46, DECEMBER 2015

PDF  Article PDF Version

Received: 25 May 2015

Accepted: 26 August 2015

Available online: 15 December 2015

Subject Heading: BUDGET REGULATION

JEL Classification: 

Pages: 31-39

Sukharev A.N. Tver State University, Tver, Russian Federation
su500005@yandex.ru

Subject The article addresses the problem of choosing the exchange rate regime by the monetary authorities of Russia to ensure macroeconomic stability.
     Objectives The aim is to study the effect of the exchange rate regime of Russia on the country’s economy, particularly, on the Federal budget balance.
     Methods The methodological framework includes the formal logic, systems approach and statistical data grouping.
     Results The study reveals advantages and disadvantages of various exchange rate regimes to use them for economic stabilization under external shocks associated with oil price fluctuations in global markets.
     Conclusions The fixed rate of exchange leads to larger fluctuations in the Federal budget revenues as compared with floating rate. Under fixed rate of exchange, the Central Bank may face a ‘trap’ of the monetary policy, when growing oil prices necessitate an increase in foreign exchange reserves as the national currency strengthens. This requires a negative revaluation of international reserves and reduction in the capital of the Bank of Russia up to a negative value. When an oil exporting country chooses the floating exchange rate regime, it is able to automatically smooth the Federal budget revenues. The volume of the stabilization fund will be significantly less. For inflation targeting purposes, under floating rate of exchange the Bank of Russia should use the wide monetary base as a nominal anchor.

Keywords: exchange rate regime, fixed exchange rate, floating rate, monetary policy, stabilization fun

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