Yashin S.N.National Research Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod (UNN), Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation jashinsn@yandex.ru
Trifonov Yu.V.National Research Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod (UNN), Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation decanat@ef.unn.ru
Koshelev E.V.National Research Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod (UNN), Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation ekoshelev@yandex.ru
Importance Despite the existence of standard models to manage clusters, their formation and evolution processes are understudied. The required models should adequately describe organizational problems and market mechanisms of their realization, using proper tools. Objectives The aim of the study is to develop an approach enabling to distinguish the core company of the future innovative and industrial cluster so as to subsequently expand this type of business to a pilot cluster of the region. Methods We offer using a book value multiplier, Tobin's Q Ratio and revenue multipliers. They help find out whether the investigated company is able to become the core company of the potential cluster in the near future. To manage the risk of cluster evolution, we apply the technologies of real options. Results To estimate the cost of real options, we compared three the most common models, i.e. the Black-Scholes model, binomial model and trinomial model. We accounted for money depreciation, even over one-year period. This is especially important for emerging markets like Russia. Thus, we used the Asian option model, i.e. an option with changing exercise price (in our case, at the inflation rate). The findings show that the trinomial model is more precise as compared to the binomial or Black-Scholes model. Conclusions and Relevance This approach to risk management of cluster evolution enables to correct the global strategy of a cluster, if required.
Keywords: cluster, core, multiplier, real option, Asian option
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