Subject. The article considers the oil market functioning under sanctions restrictions. Objectives. The aims are to determine indicators characterizing the ability of the oil market to resist the sanctions, develop tools to study the impact of sanctions on the stability of the energy market, analyze economic consequences of the embargo on the purchase of oil from some producers, perform an economic analysis of possibilities of achieving equilibrium market conditions under an oil embargo. Methods. The main research tool is mathematical modeling of the market. The methodology rests on the study of changes in the typification of the market, caused by the introduction of sanctions restrictions into its regulatory system. This enables to build a game-theoretic model of the market, suitable for its research in the current state. Results. I determined the main indicators characterizing the global oil market functioning under sanctions, constructed a game-theoretic model, examined the market and determined its critical parameters during the introduction of the embargo on the purchase of oil from some producers. The paper defines ways to stabilize the market under the embargo. Conclusions. The model is suitable for studying the current state of the global oil market. Under the current conditions, attempts by consumer countries to circumvent their own sanctions are possible to stabilize the market, which lead to the introduction of secondary sanctions and an increase in market volatility. It is also feasible to enter into contracts between individual large oil producers and consumers at preferential prices. The study of non-market methods of market regulation, specific to the current market situation, is possible by including consumer countries in the model’s set of players.
Keywords: global oil market, sanctions restrictions, goods with saturated demand, game-theoretic model, oil embargo
References:
Popova I.M. [Geopolitical Factors and Their Role in the Development of the International Oil Market: A Literature Review] Vestnik mezhdunarodnykh organizatsii: obrazovanie, nauka, novaya ekonomika = International Organisations Research Journal, 2020, vol. 15, no. 3, pp. 282–306. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Miriello C. Energy Security and Geopolitics in the Trans-Europe Space. In: S. Giusti, I. Mirkina (eds). The EU in a Trans-European Space. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham, 2019.
Plakandaras V., Gupta R., Wing-Keung Wong. Point and density forecasts of oil returns: The role of geopolitical risks. Resources Policy, 2019, vol. 62, pp. 580–587. URL: Link
Pusenkova N.N. [The Low-carbon Future of Hydrocarbon Companies: The Case of American and European Oil Producers]. EKO = ECO, 2021, no. 7, pp. 73–96. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Pusenkova N.N. [Climate policy of national oil companies: De-carbonization in a European way or in an American way?]. Problemy ekonomiki i upravleniya neftegazovym kompleksom = Problems of Economics and Management of Oil and Gas Complex, 2021, no. 11, pp. 52–62. URL: Link 2021/11/52-62/?ysclid=ltcwps0tzf50964857 (In Russ.)
Malova T.A., Sysoeva V.I. [Тhе world oil market: The search for balance in the new "oil" reality]. Vestnik MGIMO Universiteta = MGIMO Review of International Relations, 2016, no. 6, pp. 115–124. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Volotkovskaya N.S., Volotkovskaya Yu.A., Semenov A.S. [The global energy market: Analysis of energy production and demand, sector prospects]. Sovremennaya nauka: aktual'nye problemy teorii i praktiki. Seriya: Ekonomika i pravo = Modern Science: Actual Problems of Theory and Practice, 2020, no. 6, pp. 12–17. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Shutaeva E.A., Pobirchenko V.V. [World oil market: Analysis of production and demand, Russia’s position]. Nauchnyi vestnik: finansy, banki, investitsii = Scientific Bulletin: Finance, Banking, Investment, 2021, no. 2, pp. 170–184. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Pusenkova N.N. Natsional'nye neftyanye kompanii v novykh realiyakh mirovoi energetiki [National oil companies in the new realities of world energy]. Moscow, Ideya-Press Publ., 2022, 400 p.
Konyukhovskiy P.V., Holodkova V.V. Cooperative Game Theory Methods in the Analysis of Economic and Political Interaction at the International Level. Contributions to Game Theory and Management, 2021, vol. 14, pp. 192–215. URL: Link
Petrosian O., Li Y., Nastych M. The Looking Forward Approach in a Differential Game Model of the Oil Market with Non-transferable Utility. In: L.A. Petrosyan, V.V. Mazalov, N.A. Zenkevich (eds) Frontiers of Dynamic Games. Static & Dynamic Game Theory: Foundations & Applications. Birkhäuser, Cham, 2020, pp. 215–244.
Nastych M.A. [Analysis of Management Collusive Decisions on the World Oil Market]. Rossiiskii zhurnal menedzhmenta = Russian Management Journal, 2018, vol. 16, no. 3, pp. 371–392. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Kuternin M.I. [Market regulation of oligopolistic markets for goods with saturated demand]. Ekonomika: vchera, segodnya, zavtra = Economics: Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow, 2023, vol. 13, no. 1A, pp. 145–155. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Kuternin M.I. [On opportunities to achieve market equilibrium in the global oil market]. Ekonomicheskii analiz: teoriya i praktika = Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, 2023, vol. 22, iss. 3, pp. 574–594. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Case J.H. Economics and the Competitive Process. New York, New York University Press, 1979, 295 p.
Imangozhina Z.A., Niyazbekova Sh.U. [The international economic cooperation of Gulf States in gas sector]. Vestnik Moskovskogo universiteta im. S.Yu. Vitte. Seriya 1: Ekonomika i upravlenie, 2019, no. 1. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Luce R.D., Raiffa H. Games and Decisions. New York, Wiley, 1957, 509 p.
Nastych M.A. [Strong Nash equilibrium for oligopoly with quantity and price settings]. Dal'nevostochnyi matematicheskii zhurnal = Far Eastern Mathematical Journal, 2019, vol. 19, no. 2, pp. 223–234. URL: Link 3d9b3a87b48103c5f66b6badd0d82a8c/dvmg410.pdf (In Russ.)
Moulin H. Théorie des jeux pour l'économie et la politique. Paris, Herrman, 1981, 248 p.
Malova T.A. [Competition for world leadership as risk factor of global instability]. Strakhovoe delo, 2018, no. 6, pp. 3–9. URL: Link (In Russ.)
