Subject. The article addresses the multivariate regression modeling and analysis of the dynamics of performance indicators of a scientific organization related to the field of social sciences and humanities. Objectives. The aim is to identify factors affecting the key performance indicators of a scientific organization, namely, publication activity and relevance of results. Methods. The study employs multivariate regression modeling to identify factors affecting the indicators of publication activity of a scientific organization, comparative and statistical methods to analyze the dynamics of specific indicators, forecasting methods (time series analysis and correlation-regression analysis) to confirm the results of modeling. Results. We identified the main factors influencing the publication activity of a scientific organization. The forecasting results confirmed the significance of the identified factors. The paper defines differences in the trends in key indicators of scientific organization's activity. The findings can be useful for government agencies to develop and improve the methodology for evaluating the activities of scientific organizations related to the field of social sciences and humanities. Conclusions. A scientific organization’s performance is influenced by such factors as the number of researchers under the age of 39, the number of researchers in general, the number of articles by employees of the scientific organization in journals included in Russian and international databases, the total number of positive and neutral references in the media and the Internet, the number of citations in the RSCI, views of publications for the year.
Keywords: scientific organization, multivariate regression analysis, publication activity, statistical and comparative analysis, specific indicator
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