Subject. The article addresses economic diagnostics of performance of payment obligations based on scenario approach, enabling to evaluate possible scenarios, unveil the main causes of financial threats to the organization, and develop measures to eliminate them. Objectives. We focus on the development of methodological aspects of implementing economic diagnostics of payment obligations fulfillment based on the scenario approach to reduce risks of insolvency and improve resource management efficiency. Methods. The methodological basis of the study was analysis and synthesis, generalization and comparison, logical and systematic reasoning, grouping, economic and mathematical models in the form of regression equations. Results. We offered to conduct economic diagnostics of payment obligations performance, using the scenario approach and considering the industry specifics. The basis is an assessment of solvency and liquidity of economic entity, reflecting the ability to repay obligations and fund turnover. To determine potential scenarios for future developments, we recommended to build scenarios for changes in the statement of financial results. The paper describes specifics of modeling different types of scenarios: realistic, optimistic, and pessimistic, aimed at minimizing the problems of the organization associated with the level of solvency. Conclusions. Economic diagnostics of payment obligations fulfillment requires a study of organization’s production and financial activities, the results of which are reported in the income statement. Predictive scenarios considering the industry specifics based on performance data make it possible to strengthen the financial stability of the organization, reduce risks of its insolvency, and optimize the use of resources.
Shelkunova T.G. [Scenario approach in regional development strategic management]. Ekonomika i biznes: teoriya i praktika = Economy and Business: Theory and Practice, 2016, no. 7, pp. 87–91. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Kolbasov V.I. [Scenary Planning as Efficient Method of Strategy Development]. Kreativnaya ekonomika = Journal of Creative Economy, 2012, no. 8, pp. 86–92. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Kovalev P.P. [Scenario analysis, methodological aspects]. Finansy i kredit = Finance and Credit, 2009, no. 44, pp. 9–13. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Badmaeva D.G. [Analysis of the solvency and sustainability of the development of agricultural organizations]. Izvestiya Mezhdunarodnoi akademii agrarnogo obrazovaniya = Izvestia MAAO, 2021, no. 54, pp. 85–92. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Vinkel' A.V. [Application of the scenario method in financial planning at an agricultural enterprise]. Molodoi uchenyi = Young Scientist, 2018, no. 42, pp. 190–192. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Zamuraeva L.E., Il'ina K.N. [Designing a strategy for the development of a beauty salon based on the scenario method]. Molodoi uchenyi = Young Scientist, 2019, no. 18, pp. 189–191. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Ziganshina T.E., Aletkin P.A. [Modern methods of economic diagnostics of payment]. Sinergiya Nauk = Synergy of Sciences, 2018, no. 25, pp. 45–53. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Kozmenkova S.V., Shatina E.N., Tel'gaeva O.O. [Methodological features of checking financial results from ordinary activities]. Bukhgalterskii uchet v byudzhetnykh i nekommercheskikh organizatsiyakh = Accounting in Budgetary and Non-Profit Organizations, 2017, no. 11, pp. 24–35. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Kozmenkova S.V., Shatina E.N., Tel'gaeva O.O. [Financial performance: Audit features]. Bukhgalterskii uchet v byudzhetnykh i nekommercheskikh organizatsiyakh = Accounting in Budgetary and Non-Profit Organizations, 2017, no. 16, pp. 13–25. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Mukanov A.Kh. [Development of scenarios as the basis for strategic planning of production activities in enterprises]. Vestnik Omskogo universiteta. Seriya: Ekonomika = Herald of Omsk University. Series Economics, 2015, no. 2, pp. 103–110. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Safiullin M.R., El'shin L.A., Prygunova M.I. [Volatility and competitiveness of regions in conditions of foreign-political and market changes (illustrated by regions of Privolzhsky Federal District)]. Vestnik Rossiiskogo ekonomicheskogo universiteta im. G.V. Plekhanova = Vestnik of Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, 2014, no. 12, pp. 115–127. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Sungatullina L.B., Badgutdinova I.R. [Control of the organization's solvency based on the assessment of the quality of receivables and payables]. Bukhgalterskii uchet v byudzhetnykh i nekommercheskikh organizatsiyakh = Accounting in Budgetary and Non-Profit Organizations, 2021, no. 2, pp. 19–27. (In Russ.)
Sungatullina L.B., Chupova Yu.I. [The use of the scenario analysis to assess and prevent possible corporate bankruptcy]. Mezhdunarodnyi bukhgalterskii uchet =International Accounting, 2020, vol. 23, iss. 4, pp. 395–413. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Sungatullina L.B., Chupova Yu.I. [Financial diagnostics of the activity of an economic entity]. Bukhgalterskii uchet v byudzhetnykh i nekommercheskikh organizatsiyakh = Accounting in Budgetary and Non-Profit Organizations, 2020, no. 6, pp. 16–22. (In Russ.)
Tsygichko V.N., Chereshkin D.S., Smolyan G.L. [Analysis and assessment of negative consequences of strategic solutions in organizational systems]. Trudy ISA RAN = Proceedings of ISA RAS, 2018, vol. 68, iss. 1, pp. 3–23. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Tolpegina O.A. [System of solvency indicators in financial diagnostics]. Strategicheskie resheniya i risk-menedzhment = Strategic Decisions and Risk Management, 2013, no. 1, pp. 62–69. (In Russ.) URL: Link
