Malkina M.Yu.Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod - National Research University, Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation mmuri@yandex.ru
Pavlinova O.V.Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod - National Research University, Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation olgapavlinova@yandex.ru
Importance The research focuses on the mineral extraction tax applicable in the Russian Federation and the Russian regions to oil production. The authors investigate the scale, structure, dynamics, and factors influencing the mineral extraction tax revenue of the Russian budget. Objectives The research is to review trends and the number of factors influencing the revenue from the mineral extraction tax nationally and per oil producing region of Russia. It also examines the effect of oil production volumes, standard tax rate, coefficient including various benefits, price ratio and breaks it down into global oil pricing factors and foreign exchange rate. Methods The research employs the dynamic, structural and factor analysis, and statistical methods for assessing the variability. The authors propose to combine the logarithmic method and proportional division method in order to measure the factors' effect on the mineral extraction tax revenue from the Russian oil producing regions. Results The article presents, nationally and regionally, a detailed analysis, growth trends of the basic tax constituents, i.e. tax base, standard tax rate, coefficient including benefits, global oil prices and US Dollar exchange rate. The authors identify the inverse relationship between changes in global prices and USD exchange rate, thus ensuring the hedging effect of the mineral extraction tax revenue. This trend is mostly evident during crises. The factor analysis defines the quantitative effect of each factor on the growth in the mineral extraction tax revenue in the entire country and the main regions of Russia from 2007 through 2013. The article summarizes fundamental macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, which will determine the mineral extraction tax revenue of the Russian budget in the nearest future. First and foremost, intensifying competition in the global oil market, economic sanctions against Russia and falling global oil prices. Conclusions and Relevance The authors conclude that the global oil prices have the prevailing quantitative effect on growth in the mineral extraction tax revenue nationally. The research also indicates that the exchange rate (natural hedge against falling oil prices) and standard tax rate (regulatory effect under massive benefits) have the compensating effect. As the researchers find out, changes in oil production resulted in little positive effect on growth in the mineral extraction tax revenue, with benefits demonstrating little negative effect. As for the Russian regions before 2010, the researchers detect the highest variability of the production factor, while the period after 2010 features the highest variability of the benefit factor. The researchers conclude about the oil industry development trends under the current macroeconomic and geopolitical circumstances and their effect on the Russian economic development, as a whole.
Keywords: mineral extraction tax, tax revenue, tax base, tax rate, benefits, global oil prices, US Dollar exchange rate, logarithmic method, factor analysis
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