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Improving the methodology for industry analysis based on the Harvard paradigm

Kogdenko V.G. National Research Nuclear University MEPhI, Moscow, Russian Federation ( kogdenko7@mail.ru )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #10, 2019

Subject The article addresses the development of industry analysis within the Harvard paradigm.
Objectives The aim is to generalize the industry analysis algorithms and justify the methodology, using the SPARK information resource.
Methods The study rests on general scientific principles and methods of research, like abstraction, generalization of approaches of domestic and foreign authors to industry analysis.
Results The paper presents an industry analysis technique that includes four stages. The first explores basic industry conditions based on qualitative and quantitative financial information. At the second stage, the industry structure, its cyclicality and volatility of industry indicators are assessed. The third stage deals with analyzing the behavior of industry's companies in terms of operating, investment and financial activities. At the fourth stage, the possibility of creating value for industry companies, their dynamics and the industry's contribution to GDP are analyzed. The technique has been tested on companies operating in the non-ferrous metals industry.
Conclusions The main forces of competition are the intra-industry competition and market power of buyers. The efficiency of individual large businesses achieves the required profitability, however, the entire industry does not create value. The industry's contribution to GDP is declining, which is generally the case in the primary sector of the economy.


Predictive and prescriptive analyses: Theoretical considerations

Kogdenko V.G. National Research Nuclear University MEPhI, Moscow, Russian Federation ( kogdenko7@mail.ru )

Journal: Digest Finance, #3, 2019

Subject The article discusses theoretical considerations of predictive and prescriptive analyses.
Objectives The research summarizes algorithms and aspects of predictive, prescriptive analysis and identifies points of corporate growth triggered by the use of digital analytics.
Methods The research employs general principles and methods of research, such as analysis and synthesis, grouping and comparison, abstraction, generalization.
Results The article characterizes predictive and prescriptive analyses, modeling algorithms and identifies six focal points for analysis. I focus on key algorithms for modern analysis, i.e. setting trends and regression models, clusterization and classification of data, detection of data deviations and association analysis. The article reviews the algorithm used to build models, which involves training and test datasets. As part of each analysis, I find key aspects and points of corporate performance growth.
Conclusions and Relevance The article provides solutions for better business performance resulting from the use of digital analytics, i.e. adapting a product and marketing to customers’ needs, reduction in the cost of business processes, articulation of the effective HR policy, making preventative decisions on fraudulent transactions, optimization of business model. The findings may be useful to analysts.


Specifics of Analysis of Companies Operating in the Digital Economy

Kogdenko V.G. National Research Nuclear University MEPhI, Moscow, Russian Federation ( kogdenko7@mail.ru )

Journal: Digest Finance, #2, 2018

Importance The article analyzes companies operating in the quaternary sector of the economy (digital economy).
Objectives The study aims to investigate the specifics of companies operating in the digital economy and to develop proposals for improving their analysis.
Methods The methodology of the study rests on the stakeholder theory and resource-based approach to organizational analysis.
Results I developed a methodology that is in sync with the specifics of companies operating in the quaternary sector of the economy. It includes seven steps. At the first step, corporate competitive advantages are assessed. At the second step, risks generated by key stakeholders are analyzed, including those associated with intellectual capital and social and reputation capital. At the third step, intellectual capital is examined, followed by social and reputation capital and its four components. At the fifth step, company's cash flows and financial solvency are estimated; at the sixth step, efficiency of investment activities is evaluated on the basis of cash flows from operations and financing. At the final step of the analysis, value drivers that relate directly to intellectual capital and social and reputation capital, and company's intrinsic value are estimated.
Conclusions and Relevance The proposed methodology helps assess corporate operations in the digital economy through a stakeholder approach. The article may be useful for analysts involved in corporate performance appraisal using integrated reporting.


A method to analyze the corporate payout policy

Kogdenko V.G. National Research Nuclear University MEPhI, Moscow, Russian Federation ( kogdenko7@mail.ru )

Journal: International Accounting, #16, 2017

Importance The article addresses the algorithms of payout policy, including the dividend policy and share buyback policy.
Objectives The aim is to develop analytical procedures to assess the impact of the payout policy on the company's financial condition, investment activity, fundamental value and capitalization.
Methods Objective principles of the systems approach, basic tenets of economic analysis, logical and comprehensive approach to the assessment of of economic phenomena and processes form the methodological framework of the study.
Results The method to analyze the payout policy includes four stages. At the first stage, the key indicators of the payout policy are analyzed, i.e. payments to shareholders, profit distribution proportions, dividend yield, which enable to assess the scale of financial resource withdrawal from the company and determine the payout policy direction. The second stage focuses on assessing two major implications of the payout policy, i.e. its impact on company's liquidity and solvency and investment activity. At the third stage, the impact on fundamental value drivers is assessed, namely, WACC, sustainable growth and ROIC. The fourth stage deals with the analysis of the policy's impact on market capitalization and substantiation of the conclusion on how market reacts to an increase or decrease in dividends per share and in retained earnings, and determines the total return on investment in the company's shares.
Relevance I developed algorithms of the corporate payout policy analysis. The article may be useful for experts of financial services, who are involved in financial decision-making under economic crisis.


Methods to analyze consolidated financial statements of Russian strategic enterprises on the basis of aggregate, matrix and dynamic forms

Kogdenko V.G. National Research Nuclear University MEPhI, Moscow, Russian Federation ( kogdenko7@mail.ru )

Journal: International Accounting, #18, 2017

Subject The article addresses the analysis of consolidated financial statements of Russian strategic enterprises.
Objectives The aim of the study is to develop methods to analyze consolidated financial statements on the basis of aggregate, matrix and dynamic forms.
Methods The study employs objective principles of the systems approach, provisions of economic analysis, logical and comprehensive approaches to economic phenomena and processes.
Results I propose methods of consolidated financial statements analysis based on aggregate, matrix and dynamic forms. They are used to analyze the statement of financial position, statement of comprehensive income, and cash flow statement. For instance, in the process of the analysis of consolidated statement of financial position, a matrix balance sheet is formed, which represents company's sources of financing and assets. Based on the matrix balance sheet, the figures of dynamic, index, and structural balance for assets and liabilities are calculated. These analytical forms enable to assess movements in company development, its asset structure and capital management strategy. The proposed methods have been tested on the data of a Russian strategic company.
Conclusions The paper investigates problem of the analysis of consolidated financial statements and reveals typical elements of the financial policy of Russian strategic enterprises. It may be interesting for analysts involved in company's activities evaluation on the basis of consolidated financial statements.


Modern trends in business analysis: Studying the company's ecosystem, reviewing the business model's information content, evaluating growth opportunities

Kogdenko V.G. National Research Nuclear University MEPhI, Moscow, Russian Federation ( kogdenko7@mail.ru )

Mel'nik M.V. Financial University under Government of Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation ( diakina2002@mail.ru )

Journal: Regional Economics: Theory and Practice, #1, 2018

Importance The article considers a business analysis perfection based on the stakeholder approach and taking into account the development of the Quaternary sector of economy and informatization of company business models.
Objectives The purpose of the study is to develop proposals to improve the analysis of company's ecosystem, the information component of business model, and the assessment of growth opportunities.
Methods The methodological basis of the proposals includes the theory of stakeholders, the theory of sectoral structure of economy, patterns of business informatization. The methodology rests on the International Integrated Reporting Framework.
Results The developed methodology includes five stages. At the first stage, we identify company's ecosystem and investigate relationships with stakeholders. Then we analyze types of capital that the company needs regardless of the economy sector, and types of capital that are pivotal for each individual company, estimate the financial condition of the company and indicators of its development. At the third stage, we investigate characteristics of survival, assess risks associated with stakeholders. At the fourth stage, we evaluate characteristics of informatization of business models that ensure business development, including digitalization technologies, crowdsourcing information, updateability of products, technologies, methods of business management. At the final stage of the analysis, we examine indicators of the company value for all stakeholders within the ecosystem, and estimate the value of intangible capital.
Conclusions The offered methodology enables evaluation of company operations on the basis of the stakeholder approach, taking into account the economy sector to which the company belongs.


A methodology to assess the efficiency of company's internal stakeholders: Owners and management

Kogdenko V.G. National Research Nuclear University MEPhI, Moscow, Russian Federation ( kogdenko7@mail.ru )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #6, 2017

Importance The article considers efficiency of company's internal stakeholders, taking into account the impact of external environment on company operations.
Objectives The purpose of the study is to develop a methodology to analyze the performance of internal stakeholders on the basis of consolidated reporting and information about company's external environment.
Methods The methodological basis includes objective principles of the systems approach, main points of economic analysis, the logical and comprehensive approach to economic phenomena and processes assessment.
Results The offered methodology consists of two stages. At the first stage, the company's external environment is examined to substantiate the indicator of changes (a consolidated sector index of production volume and product pricing). The comparison of the consolidated index and the index of changes in company financial performance enables to conclude on internal stakeholders' efficiency. At the second stage, the efficiency from the perspective of strategic and operational decisions is investigated. To assess strategic decisions, investment activity and its impact on long-term business performance (the growth rate and return on invested capital) are analyzed. To assess the operational efficiency, secondary cost factors (return on sales and invested capital turnover) are examined. The methodology has been tested on the data of one of the Russian strategic companies.
Conclusions The methodology helps assess the impact of external environment on company's performance indicators and efficiency of strategic and operational decisions of stakeholders.


A methodology for financial modeling based on published consolidated financial statements

Kogdenko V.G. National Research Nuclear University MEPhI, Moscow, Russian Federation ( kogdenko7@mail.ru )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #7, 2017

Importance The article considers modeling the company performance on the basis of published information.
Objectives The purpose of the study is to develop a methodology for financial modeling based on consolidated financial statements and other published information.
Methods The article presents algorithms for prospective financial analysis and calculations based on Excel 2016 forecasting tools that allow modeling and evaluating the company's future performance and financial results using the published information.
Results The developed methodology includes five stages. At the first stage of the analysis, the company's strategy is determined using the space analysis based on quantitative assessments of external and internal environment. At the second stage, the algorithm for revenue forecasting and other financial results is underpinned based on exponential smoothing and trend model building. At the third stage, regression models of current and capital expenditures are built and other indicators are justified that are needed to calculate projected financial results. At the fourth stage, parameters of the realistic, pessimistic and optimistic scenarios of company's development are substantiated. At the final stage, projected financial results and the fundamental value of the company are calculated and the likelihood of achieving the results. The proposed methodology is tested on the data of a Russian strategic company.
Conclusions and Relevance The presented methodology may be useful for analysts evaluating the company's activities on the basis of consolidated financial statements.


Modern trends in business analysis: Studying the company's ecosystem, reviewing the business model's information content, evaluating growth opportunities

Kogdenko V.G. National Research Nuclear University MEPhI, Moscow, Russian Federation ( kogdenko7@mail.ru )

Mel'nik M.V. Financial University under Government of Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation ( diakina2002@mail.ru )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #10, 2017

Importance The article considers business analysis perfection based on the stakeholder approach and taking into account the development of the Quaternary sector of economy and informatization of company business models.
Objectives The purpose of the study is to develop proposals to improve the analysis of company’s ecosystem, the information component of business model, and the assessment of growth opportunities.
Methods The methodological basis of the proposals includes the theory of stakeholders, the theory of sectoral structure of economy, patterns of business informatization. The methodology rests on the International Integrated Reporting Framework.
Results The developed methodology includes five stages. At the first stage, we identify company’s ecosystem and investigate relationships with stakeholders. Then we analyze types of capital that the company needs regardless of the economy sector, and types of capital that are pivotal for each individual company, estimate the financial condition of the company and indicators of its development. At the third stage, we investigate characteristics of survival, assess risks associated with stakeholders. At the fourth stage, we evaluate characteristics of informatization of business models that ensure business development, including digitalization technologies, crowdsourcing information, updateability of products, technologies, methods of business management. At the final stage of the analysis, we examine indicators of the company value for all stakeholders within the ecosystem, and estimate the value of intangible capital.
Conclusions The offered methodology enables evaluation of company operations on the basis of the stakeholder approach, taking into account the economy sector to which the company belongs.


Specifics of analysis of companies operating in the digital economy

Kogdenko V.G. National Research Nuclear University MEPhI, Moscow, Russian Federation ( kogdenko7@mail.ru )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #3, 2018

Importance The article analyzes companies operating in the quaternary sector of the economy (digital economy).
Objectives The study aims to investigate the specifics of companies operating in the digital economy and to develop proposals for improving their analysis.
Methods The methodology of the study rests on the stakeholder theory and resource-based approach to organizational analysis.
Results I developed a methodology that takes into account the specifics of companies operating in the quaternary sector of the economy. It includes seven stages. At the first stage, company's competitive advantages are assessed. At the second stage, risks generated by key stakeholders are analyzed, including those associated with intellectual and social and reputation capital. At the third stage, intellectual capital is examined, then – social and reputation capital by its four components. At the fifth stage, company's cash flows and financial solvency are estimated; at the sixth stage, efficiency of investment activities is evaluated on the basis of cash flows from operations and financing. At the final stage of the analysis, value drivers that relate directly to intellectual and social and reputation capital, and company's fundamental value are estimated.
Conclusions The developed methodology enables to assess the operations of companies of the digital economy on the basis of stakeholder approach. The article may be useful for analysts involved in company performance evaluation using the integrated reporting.


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