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Structural transformation of the Russian economy in the employment context: An analysis of trends and forecast

Vikharev V.V. Kuban State Technological University, Krasnodar, Russian Federation ( v.v.viharev@mail.ru )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #2, 2019

Subject The article investigates the structural transformation of the Russian economy, problems related to its assessment and analysis, and identifies the need for improving the relevant methodological tools.
Objectives The purpose of the study is to define approaches, assess and reveal tendencies, and give forecasts of structural transformation of the Russian economy.
Methods I employ methods of dynamic, statistical, comparative and regression analysis.
Results The analysis of structural changes in the Russian economy shows that the share of the employed in the service sector is steadily increasing, while other sectors demonstrate an inverse trend. The presented conservative forecast of changes in the structure of the Russian economy up to 2027 shows that the share of employment in the service industry will continue increasing, and in other industries it will shrink.
Conclusions The service sector currently acts as a buffer, where former employees from industry and agriculture are accumulated due to increased labor efficiency in these sectors. However, the public sector has not evolved to the level of the leading countries.


The use of WGI methods of the World Bank to evaluate change in Russia’s institutional environment: opportunities and constraints

Vikharev V.V. Kuban State Technological University, Krasnodar, Krasnodar Krai, Russian Federation ( v.v.viharev@mail.ru )

Journal: Financial Analytics: Science and Experience, #46, 2016

Importance Whereas the institutional environment should be improved during the transformation of socio-economic systems, there should be relevant methodological tools to analyze and evaluate it. Researches, scholarly teams and large international organizations devised a lot of various methods, including World Governance Indicators (WGI). Therefore, it is reasonable to determine opportunities and constraints of this method for purposes of evaluation of Russia’s institutional environment.
Objectives The research identifies and indicates what impedes the use of the WGI method proposed by the World Bank, and analyzes trends in the development of Russia’s institutional environment using this method.
Methods Using methods of dynamic, situation and comparative analysis and the indicative method based on the World Bank’s WGI, I evaluate and investigate the development of Russia’s institutional environment.
Results Having evaluated the development of Russia’s institutional environment and analyzed its trends in 2000–2015, I concluded that, notwithstanding positive trends in most WGIs, almost each indicator of Russia lagged behind not only foreign countries, but also some countries of the BRICS and CIS.
Conclusions and Relevance WGI methods face certain practical constraints due their complexity, with some source indicators being incomparable in terms of time and space, and indicators used to assess WGI being disputable. If applied, the method will allow for evaluating the institutional environment by different aspect, i.e. the efficiency of governmental authorities, civil rights and freedoms, political stability, security, legislative regulation, supremacy of law, and corruption.


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