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Methods of the analysis and modelling of development of transport system of region

Kiselenko A.N. dr. sci. tech., dr. econ., the professor managing laboratory of problems of transport, Komi science centre, Ural Branch, Russian academy of sciences ( kiselenko@ib.komisc.ru )

Sundukov E.J. cand. econ. sci., the scientific employee, Komi science centre, Ural branch, Russian academy of sciences ( translab@ib.komisc.ru )

Journal: Regional Economics: Theory and Practice, #11, 2010

Presence of parallel means of communication, complex use of different types of transport increases reliability of process of transportation of cargoes and passengers, therefore for effective functioning economy of region it is necessary to develop transport system. Existing methods of the analysis and modelling of development of transport system of region are considered. The example of construction graphic stream model is given for transport system of Republic of Komi. The initial data for forecasting volumes of freight and volumes of passenger traffic in model can be received by a method of regression analysis


Transport links European north-east to water area of northern port and ways

Kiselenko A.N. Doctor of Technical Sciences, Doctor of Economics, Professor, Head of Transport Problems Laboratory, the Komi Science Centre, the Ural Division of the Russian Academy of Sciences ( kiselenko@iespn.komisc.ru )

Sundukov E.Yu. PhD in Economics, Associate Professor, Research Worker of Transport Problems Laboratory, the Komi Science Centre, the Ural Division of the Russian Academy of Sciences ( translab@iespn.komisc.ru )

Malashchuk P.A. PhD in Technical Sciences, Research Worker Transport Problems Laboratory, the Komi Science Centre, the Ural Division of the Russian Academy of Sciences ( translab@iespn.komisc.ru )

Tarabukina N.A. engineer-programmer of Transport Problems Laboratory, the Komi Science Centre, the Ural Division of the Russian Academy of Sciences ( translab@iespn.komisc.ru )

Journal: Regional Economics: Theory and Practice, #13, 2013

In the article the graphic flow and mathematical models of communications from transport objects of the European Northeast to ports of water areas of the Northern sea way, the White and Barents seas were constructed. The existing and perspective transport communications are analyzed and the shortest ways throughout the distance from the considered objects to the North Sea are calculated.


Exploring the access to transportation of the European and Cis-Urals North of Russia based on the result-oriented approach and strategic planning

Kiselenko A.N. Institute of Socio-Economic and Energy Problems of the North, Komi Science Centre of Ural Branch of RAS, Syktyvkar, Komi Republic, Russian Federation ( kiselenko@iespn.komisc.ru )

Sundukov E.Yu. Institute of Socio-Economic and Energy Problems of the North, Komi Science Centre of Ural Branch of RAS, Syktyvkar, Komi Republic, Russian Federation ( translab@iespn.komisc.ru )

Journal: Regional Economics: Theory and Practice, #1, 2019

Subject The article considers the result-oriented approach and strategic planning to investigate transport accessibility of the European and Cis-Urals North of Russia.
Objectives The study aims to review access to transportation of settlements and economic centers of the region through comparing the current transport network and the perspective one, using the result-oriented approach and strategic planning.
Methods The study draws on the methods of systems, statistical, and comparative analyses, result-oriented approach, and strategic planning.
Results We offer variants of traffic network of the region to achieve the desirable transport accessibility.
Conclusions The main transportation hubs of the European and Cis-Urals North of Russia will be accessible on condition that projects specified in documents on strategic planning and management by results are implemented.


The network of water routes in the Northeastern Europe and Northern Transurals: analysis and forecast

Kiselenko A.N. Institute of Socio-Economic and Energy Problems of North, Komi Scientific Center, Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Syktyvkar, Komi Republic, Russian Federation ( kiselenko@iespn.komisc.ru )

Sundukov E.Y. Institute of Socio-Economic and Energy Problems of North, Komi Scientific Center, Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Syktyvkar, Komi Republic, Russian Federation ( translab@iespn.komisc.ru )

Tarabukina N.A. Institute of Socio-Economic and Energy Problems of North, Komi Scientific Center, Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Syktyvkar, Komi Republic, Russian Federation ( nadandtar@mail.ru )

Journal: Regional Economics: Theory and Practice, #37, 2015

Importance The article discusses the state-of-the-art of water transport in the Northeastern Europe and the Northern Transurals. During the shipping season, inland water transport is the only transportation means for residents of some districts to get to centers of the federal district, region and district.
     Objectives The research aims at determining how to overcome negative trends in river transportation in the Northeastern Europe and Northern Transurals, and the traffic volume carried by water.
     Methods When projecting traffic trends, we performed an applied regression analysis and used the Andronov-Kiselenko forecasting methodology. The methodology includes expert and formalistic methods, methods of active and passive forecasting.
     Results The research included a systems analysis of water routes of the Northeastern Europe and the Northern Transurals and their condition. We devised regression models (linear, polynomial ones with degrees 2 and 3). To obtain the projected estimates, we chose the best of them in terms of dispersion analysis: upward and top-to-bottom methods, and individual and group models.
     Conclusions and Relevance We expect the region to decrease volumes of freight and passenger traffic carried by water, within the coming two-three years. If there are no regular dredging operations, shallow draft vessels or other modern and effective water transportation means should be used for river transportation purposes. Thorough environmental and economic evaluation should precede the implementation of water infrastructure projects. The State should support water transportation in access routes leading to the Northern Sea Route and publicly important routes.


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