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The methodological approach to evaluating the softness of the system towards external factors

Golovkova K.S. Dubna International University, Dubna, Moscow region, Russian Federation ( golovkovaks@yandex.ru )

Pakhomov A.V. Dubna International University, Dubna, Moscow region, Russian Federation ( dubna@list.ru )

Pakhomova E.A. Dubna International University, Dubna, Moscow region, Russian Federation ( uni-dubna@mail.ru )

Journal: National Interests: Priorities and Security, #26, 2015

Importance Evaluating the effect of external factors on the stock exchange market still remains one of relevant issues for researchers and investors.
     Objectives The objective is to devise a methodological approach to evaluating the dynamic range of prices for shares in terms of softness and rigidity in relation to external circumstances, and to test the approach with the dynamic range of prices for Aeroflot's shares.
     Methods The methodological framework comprises the general principles of the systems analysis, including a new methodology for applying systems tools of economic research, applied statistics methods, generalization and analysis of the information about the object under study. The model parameters were assessed using econometric methods, with the key parameter being subsequently determined.
     Results We describe the methodological approach as an algorithm that evaluates the softness and rigidity of the system, with its subsequent testing and case study of Aeroflot. Using the regression method, we make the 2014 forecast, compare the forecast data with real prices, thus determining the most important external factors, i.e. political and economic circumstances that influence the Russian stock market.
     Conclusions and Relevance The algorithm is possible to apply to various dynamic ranges of financial instruments indicators. The article also provides our conclusions on the specifics of the applicable analytical tools. As the analysis shows, the object is the soft system in relation to external factors. This approach can be used by investors, analysts in order to evaluate the sustainability of various economic objects.


Building the model for predicting the regions staffing needs through the CobbDouglas production function

Pakhomova E.A. Dubna State University, Dubna, Moscow Oblast, Russian Federation ( uni-dubna@mail.ru )

Pisareva D.A. Administration of Dubna, Dubna, Moscow Oblast, Russian Federation ( pisarevada@mail.ru )

Kharcheva K.S. Dubna State University, Dubna, Moscow Oblast, Russian Federation ( kharcheva562@gmail.com )

Journal: National Interests: Priorities and Security, #2, 2018

Importance The article proposes the model for predicting staffing needs of municipal districts in the Moscow Oblast through economic and mathematical modeling and some programming techniques.
Objectives The research analyzes staffing needs of municipal districts of the Moscow Oblast.
Methods The proposed methodology for a staffing needs analysis follows our research into staffing needs and distribution of human resources among regions and sectors in order to determine whether staffing needs can be forecasted regionally for ensuring the competitiveness of the national economy and increasing living standards. Inputs are processed using methods of norm setting, deflation, assessment of integral indicators in five modifications. We also apply the CobbDouglas functions, classical method of least squares, non-linear unconstrained optimization and LevenbergMarquardt algorithm.
Results Using MS Excel, STATISTICA 12, Wolfram Mathematica 11, we set regression models of the CobbDouglas functions. We selected the correlations, which adequately approximate empirical material to quality criteria. The CobbDouglas classical function with restricted specification parameters is not suitable for describing the Russian non?stationary economy. However, a modified function can be constructed.
Conclusions and Relevance The progress of the analysis may underlie the formation of the techniques for predicting the regions staffing needs. The research materials may be used by public authorities to analyze and forecast regional labor markets and plan educational institutions activities.


Harmonic and spectral analysis to identify key development cycles of the socio-economic system: Evidence from agriculture

Vazhenina V.S. Dubna International University, Dubna, Moscow Oblast, Russian Federation ( valentino91@yandex.ru )

Pakhomova E.A. Dubna International University, Dubna, Moscow Oblast, Russian Federation ( uni-dubna@mail.ru )

Pisareva D.A. Dubna Administration, Dubna, Moscow Oblast, Russian Federation ( pisarevada@mail.ru )

Journal: National Interests: Priorities and Security, #11, 2016

Importance When development cycles of the socio-economic system are determined, it helps to understand causes of some events. Agriculture is one of the fundamental industries, with its development cycles being the subject of this research. It is especially important to analyze the development of agriculture so to subsequently make up relevant decisions on the industry development in modern Russia, considering historical retrospect and anti-Russian sanctions.
Objectives The research analyzes isolated time series of available data on the agricultural development in the USSR (19701990) and the Russian Federation. We also identify key development cycles of agriculture and try to provide an economic interpretation of the cyclicality.
Methods We involved the econometric framework, harmonic analysis (Fourier), spectral analysis, extended algorithm for studying time series and identifying considerable harmonics. We used the LevinsonDurbin algorithm in the Wolfram Mathematica 10 software application to solve the YuleWalker equations.
Results We found key development cycles of agriculture and provided an economic interpretation of what could possibly cause the cycles of such time series as Crop Yield, Livestock Number, Agricultural Machines.
Conclusions and Relevance The industry had been developing more intensively for 19701990 as compared with 19912012. The 19701990 cyclicality can be explained with the five-year economic plans practiced in the USSR economy. Even if unbiased and objective mathematical tools detect strengths of the State-planned economy, then the past experience and practices should be examined more thoroughly in terms of organizational mechanisms so to adapt them to contemporary economic conditions.


The application of production functions to analyze the effect of fixed assets on economic growth in the Russian Federation

Lychagina T.A. Dubna International University, Dubna, Moscow Oblast, Russian Federation ( lychagina@jinr.ru )

Pakhomova E.A. Dubna International University, Dubna, Moscow Oblast, Russian Federation ( uni-dubna@mail.ru )

Pisareva D.A. Dubna Administration, Dubna, Moscow Oblast, Russian Federation ( pisarevada@mail.ru )

Journal: National Interests: Priorities and Security, #10, 2016

Importance The research examines how fixed assets of the Russian Federation influence an economic growth of the country through production functions.
Objectives The research formulates methods to analyze how the state of fixed assets influence the economic growth in Russia, and confirms the critical condition of the fixed assets through econometric modeling of economic growth.
Methods We conducted an econometric analysis using the CobbDouglas production functions. We used a linear least-squares method to set a linear model and nonlinear unconditional optimization to set a nonlinear model using the LevenbergMarquardt iteration algorithm.
Results Using production functions, we analyzed how the state of fixed assets of the Russian Federation had been influencing the economic growth for 19992013. We built three regression model of the CobbDouglas production function. Drawing upon the regressions, we analyzed the production function, which approximates empirical material most and adequately describes the economic condition of Russia. The least-squares linear method provides a more exact description of empirical material than the nonlinear LevenbergMarquardt algorithm. The sequence of analytical steps can lay the basis for methods to analyze how socio-economic factors influence the development of Russia.
Conclusions and Relevance The findings verify official data on the critical condition of Russias fixed assets, thus posing a significant threat to the national economic security. The national investment policy, which pursues new high-tech (innovative) enterprises, does not exclude the renewal of fixed assets in the existing enterprises in order to prevent the falldown in production and technological catastrophes.


Analyzing the financial position of the production enterprise using the fuzzy set framework

Pakhomova E.A. Dubna International University, Dubna, Moscow Oblast, Russian Federation ( uni-dubna@mail.ru )

Lychagina T.A. Dubna International University, Dubna, Moscow Oblast, Russian Federation ( lychagina@jinr.ru )

Golubeva M.S. Dubna International University, Dubna, Moscow Oblast, Russian Federation ( mariya.20.06.92@mail.ru )

Journal: National Interests: Priorities and Security, #35, 2015

Importance The article demonstrates a method for analyzing the financial position of the production enterprise. To evaluate the financial position of the business entity, it is necessary to assess a lot of various indicators and use them to conclude on the entity's position as a whole. Many financial indicators have no exact rates or standards, being strongly dependent on the industry the entity operates in. Classical bankruptcy probability evaluation models cannot deal with such data. In such cases, the fuzzy set framework can be used. The research draws upon this method to calculate an integral indicator that depicts the financial position of the entity.
     Objectives The objective of the research is to analyze the financial position of the entity using the fuzzy set framework. In this respect, we computed six local financial indicators and used them to get an integral fuzzy indicator.
     Methods The research relies upon the fuzzy set framework. Two methods were used to defuzzify the integral indicator, i.e. the Mean of Maximum defuzzification method and the center method.
     Results Following the research, we could conclude on the financial position of the entity, compare various methods for analyzing corporate performance and obtain the final result. We also analyzed the correlation of estimates we obtained using different defuzzification methods and made general conclusions on the use of the fuzzy set framework for similar economic purposes.
     Conclusions We conclude that results do not contradict each other, even if various methods are used. We also illustrate that the fuzzy set framework is easy and flexible for analyzing the financial position of the entity.


The technique for determining the innovative potential of socio-economic actors at different hierarchical levels through elements of the vector analysis and field theory

Istomina S.V. Atomenergoproekt, State Atomic Energy Corporation ROSATOM, Moscow, Russian Federation ( istomina_sv@aep.ru )

Lychagina T.A. Joint Institute for Nuclear Research, Dubna, Moscow Oblast, Russian Federation ( lychagina@jinr.ru )

Pakhomova E.A. Dubna State University, Dubna, Moscow Oblast, Russian Federation ( uni-dubna@mail.ru )

Pakhomov A.V. NPK Dedal, State Atomic Energy Corporation ROSATOM, Dubna, Moscow Oblast, Russian Federation ( pakhomov_av@dedal.ru )

Journal: National Interests: Priorities and Security, #1, 2018

Importance The article focuses on the phenomenon of innovative potential of socio?economic actors at different hierarchical levels (macro-, meso-, micro-) through the triple interaction of university, industry and government.
Objectives We devise our own toolkit by involving elements of vector calculus and field theory so as to analyze how innovation influences the development of the above actors, and test it from perspectives of defining the innovative potential of Russia as a macroactor.
Methods The research draws upon elements of vector calculus and field theory (gradient, divergence, continuity equation), method of analogies to adapt concepts of natural sciences to economics (dividing the above actors' characteristics into structural and dynamic by their substantive comparison), regression analysis to define components of the regions innovative potential.
Results We devise the technique for defining the innovative potential of socio-economic actors at different hierarchical levels through the lens of the triple helix UniversityIndustryGovernment. The innovative potential is represented with three elements. The proposed tool kit was tested by examining trends in Russia's innovative potential during 20102015. As the analysis shows, the 'University' element makes the most valuable contribution.
Conclusions and Relevance Having tested the technique, we assured not only its practical significance, flexibility of the proposed toolkit, but also a method for handling official statistics irrespective of its quality. Domestic data processing is too difficult that it shall be compensated with a transparent and concise toolkit.


Western and Russian versions of the triple helix model as an integrated approach to analyzing the formation of knowledge-based economy

Panov S.A. Dubna State University, Dubna, Moscow Region, Russian Federation ( panov-s-a@mail.ru )

Pakhomova E.A. Dubna State University, Dubna, Moscow Region, Russian Federation ( uni-dubna@mail.ru )

Pakhomov A.V. Dubna State University, Dubna, Moscow Region, Russian Federation ( dubna@list.ru )

Journal: National Interests: Priorities and Security, #25, 2015

Importance This research substantially summarizes a number of studies into the University - Science City - Region triad and learning environment in Russia at various hierarchical levels.
     Objectives We make the first attempt of comparing the University - Science City - Region triad with the concurrent Western research, i.e. The triple helix of University - Industry - Government relations by H. Etzkowitz, Professor of Stanford University.
     Methods We propose an analytical approach the paradigm of which constitutes a concept that is based on a number of principles, and methodology comprised of a number of methods and techniques. The fundamental methodological principle is represented with the principle of advanced function of education. As prescribed by this principle, the development of education should outperform the pace of economic development so that education would act as the driving force of economic development. The research components rely upon the methods of numerical and non-numerical statistics, including parametric/non-parametric correlation and regression analysis, expert methods, theory of fuzzy sets, and data of the official statistical websites of Russia.
     Results We present some generalized results of the research into methodology and instrumental bases of evaluating the effect of education on the development of socio-economic systems at various hierarchal level that strive for the 6th economic mode, i.e. economy of knowledge. The proposed instruments are of recurring nature. It is important for evaluating the current position of objects under study, adjusting tactical decisions to achieve and/or realign development strategies. It helps address issues of the national economy and regional development.
     Conclusions and Relevance We demonstrate that such researches gain special political and ideological relevance. They help understand the role of Russia in today's world. We conclude that the combined approach of the triple helix and University - Science City - Region triad may be regarded as a new area of research into the learning environment in the social and economic milieu, being a complex system, which, if sustainably developed, will lead to the new economic mode of knowledge-based economy.


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