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Analyzing changes in financial soundness of the BRICS countries

Smirnov V.V. I.N. Ulianov Chuvash State University, Cheboksary, Chuvash Republic, Russian Federation ( walera712006@mail.ru )

Mulendeeva A.V. I.N. Ulianov Chuvash State University, Cheboksary, Chuvash Republic, Russian Federation ( alena-mulendeeva@yandex.ru )

Journal: Finance and Credit, #6, 2018

Subject The article reviews the financial soundness of the BRICS countries.
Objectives Our aim is to analyze changes in the BRICS countries' solvency with evaluation of the growth rate (GR) of a set of mutually conditioned financial and economic factors and subsequent polynomial approximation.
Methods The methodology of the study rests on fundamental provisions of the theory and practice of factor analysis, financial and economic laws, findings in the field of equilibrium and non-equilibrium development of countries in the world economy.
Results The analysis of trends in the financial soundness of the BRICS countries with GR assessment and polynomial approximation of liquid bank reserves versus assets, broad money supply, exchange rate, deflator index, inflation rate, consumer prices, interest rates on loans (private sector) of listed domestic companies unveiled countries with high and low GR for 2006–2016, as well as high and low instability by absolute amplitude value.
Conclusions It is practicable to use the findings in the process of formation and adjustment of international policy and foreign trade with the BRICS countries, and for improving the mechanism of their implementation.


Transregional conflict of interests in the Russian economy

Smirnov V.V. I.N. Ulianov Chuvash State University, Cheboksary, Chuvash Republic, Russian Federation ( walera712006@mail.ru )

Mulendeeva A.V. I.N. Ulianov Chuvash State University, Cheboksary, Chuvash Republic, Russian Federation ( alena-mulendeeva@yandex.ru )

Journal: National Interests: Priorities and Security, #6, 2018

Importance The article focuses on the transregional conflict of interests in the Russian economy.
Objectives We conduct a systems analysis of what inflicts the transregional conflict of interests in the Russian economy due to unequal growth rate of Gross Regional Product per capita, Industrial Production Index, number of enterprises and organizations, unemployment, demographic burden.
Methods We apply fundamental principles of the theory and practice of a systems analysis, economic laws, scientific findings on the equal and unequal development of economy, origination and resolution of conflicts.
Results We identify regions that experience conflicts and not. In the Russian economy, the transregional conflict of interests results from controversies of the State policy for sustaining highly subsidized regions in the long-term planning horizon. This attributes the other regions to the conflict group.
Conclusions and Relevance The substance of conflict-driven regions is that they are reluctant to break up with their highly-subsidized status impeding real investment. Regions should avoid the passive development, curb any reasons for it, thus paving the way for reducing the number of conflict-laden regions. The findings can be used to form and adjust the national policy for economic stimulation of the Russian regions and improving the respective mechanism.


Forecasting the dynamics of the Russian cash flow

Smirnov V.V. I.N. Ulianov Chuvash State University (ChuvSU), Cheboksary, Chuvash Republic, Russian Federation ( v2v3s4@mail.ru )

Mulendeeva A.V. I.N. Ulianov Chuvash State University (ChuvSU), Cheboksary, Chuvash Republic, Russian Federation ( alena-mulendeeva@yandex.ru )

Journal: Finance and Credit, #10, 2018

Subject The article addresses the dynamics of the Russian cash flow.
Objectives The focus is on the analysis of prospects of the Russian cash flow created by the regulator, creditors and organizations.
Methods The study relies on the systems approach and uses the elements of graphical and factor analysis.
Results Forecasting the rates of increment of the Russian cash flow of the regulator unveils restrictions in the increase of money supply, which are associated with the structure of the economy. The projected rates of increment of the Russian cash flow of creditors show heavy losses for unprofitable credit institutions and low risks of positive and negative expectations during the periods of growth and decline in profits for organizations.
Conclusions Maintaining the free float of ruble enables the regulator to provide low rates of Russian cash flow increment. Adhering to the requirements of Basel III, the regulator limits the number of credit institutions thus strengthening the banking system and improving the stability of the Russian financial market. Rates of increment of the Russian cash flow of organizations are connected with continuous obsolescence of fixed assets and a decline in labor productivity. They demonstrate minor positive changes over the long term, high amplitude sensitivity to financial risks that it is caused by a low margin of financial safety.


Forecasting the trends in the Russian labor flow

Smirnov V.V. I.N. Ulianov Chuvash State University, Cheboksary, Chuvash Republic, Russian Federation ( walera712006@mail.ru )

Mulendeeva A.V. I.N. Ulianov Chuvash State University, Cheboksary, Chuvash Republic, Russian Federation ( alena-mulendeeva@yandex.ru )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #10, 2018

Subject The article investigates the changes in the Russian labor flow and deals with forecasting the Russian labor flow by region, type of economic activity and gender differences.
Objectives We focus on formation of forecasts of trends in the Russian labor flow on the basis of balance of the number of hired and retired employees by region, type of economic activity, and gender rates of growth by type of economic activity.
Methods The study relies on the systems approach, using the elements of graphic and factor analysis.
Results The results of forecasting the changes in the Russian labor flows by region and type of economic activity enabled their ranking to identify the most stable regions with positive and negative dynamics. We revealed reasons for positive and negative changes in labor flows by region and economic activity. The analysis of gender rate of growth by economic activity helped define the most mobile category. The findings may be used to design optimal economic space in Russia with adequate labor resources, taking into account gender differences.
Conclusions The study provides a fresh approach to the Russian labor flow, without reference to highly profitable regions, and consider it in conjunction with types of economic activity and gender differences, in the context of the new indicator of efficient economic development of Russia.


Express analysis of Russia's economy development with and without the Group of Seven

Smirnov V.V. I.N. Ulianov Chuvash State University, Cheboksary, Chuvash Republic, Russian Federation ( walera712006@mail.ru )

Mulendeeva A.V. I.N. Ulianov Chuvash State University, Cheboksary, Chuvash Republic, Russian Federation ( alena-mulendeeva@yandex.ru )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #9, 2018

Importance The article reviews the trends in Russia's economy development with and without the Group of Seven.
Objectives The purpose of the study is to analyze changes in Russia's economy development with and without the Group of Seven on the basis of estimation of growth rates in the set of interdependent financial and economic factors, reveal positive and negative factors, show beneficiary countries of the Rusexit process.
Methods The study draws on general tenets of prediction theories and practices of systems analysis of financial and economic factors, fundamental laws, findings of applied research in the field of economic equilibrium.
Results The factor analysis of changes in the country development of the Group of Seven and Group of Seven+ on the basis of assessing the growth rates in the set of interrelated financial and economic factors enabled to show positive and negative rates of growth of the Russian economy, as well as beneficiary countries by each factor. The findings can be used in the international financial and economic policy formation, in the process of selecting countries and groups of countries for cooperation, and assessing the benefits of international cooperation and the exit from it.
Conclusions To maintain the equilibrium state of the Russian economy, it is important to ensure growth in broad money, GDP per capita, gross fixed capital formation, a decrease in imports of goods (services) and inflation, and population growth while formulating the strategic areas of international cooperation.


Forecasting entrepreneurship development trends in Russia

Smirnov V.V. I.N. Ulianov Chuvash State University (ChuvSU), Cheboksary, Chuvash Republic, Russian Federation ( v2v3s4@mail.ru )

Mulendeeva A.V. I.N. Ulianov Chuvash State University (ChuvSU), Cheboksary, Chuvash Republic, Russian Federation ( alena-mulendeeva@yandex.ru )

Journal: National Interests: Priorities and Security, #10, 2018

Importance The research examines the entrepreneurship development trends in Russia and forecasts their future behavior.
Objectives The research constitutes a forecasting analysis of the Russian business development by evaluating the growth rate of demographic indicators of the Russian entities, number of active sole proprietors, those employed in sole proprietorship, revenue from sale of goods, products, work, services.
Methods The methodology rests upon the general principles of forecasting theories and techniques for analyzing economic indicators. It also refers to fundamental laws and findings of applied researches in entrepreneurship.
Results We found that demographic indicators of the Russian entities slowed down in their growth. We also capture a consensus between sole proprietors and hired manpower on the need to develop certain types of business activities and respective spectrum of priorities.
Conclusions and Relevance The Russian entrepreneurship development depends on growth rates of revenue from sale of goods, products, services as part of the agreement between a sole proprietor and employees. There should be more possibilities for hiring migrant workers to attain priorities of sole proprietors. The outdated technological model impedes the mastering of high-technology activities, focusing on agriculture, hunting and forestry, education. The findings should be used for creating and implementing the entrepreneurship development program, setting and improving the mechanism for encouraging it in new economic circumstances.


A factor analysis of trends in financial soundness of member states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization

Smirnov V.V. I.N. Ulianov Chuvash State University, Cheboksary, Chuvash Republic, Russian Federation ( walera712006@mail.ru )

Mulendeeva A.V. I.N. Ulianov Chuvash State University, Cheboksary, Chuvash Republic, Russian Federation ( alena-mulendeeva@yandex.ru )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #8, 2018

Subject The article addresses the financial viability of member States of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
Objectives The study aims to perform a factor analysis of trends in the financial soundness of member States of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, including the estimation of growth rates of a set of interdependent indicators, with subsequent polynomial approximation.
Methods The study draws on fundamental premises of the theory and practice of factor analysis, financial and economic laws, results of scientific research in the field of equilibrium and non-equilibrium country development of the global economy and world order.
Results We reveal countries with high and low growth rates of a set of interdependent indicators, and also with high and low instability in absolute magnitudes. The findings may be used in the process of formation and updating the foreign trade policy with member States of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and for improving the implementation mechanism.
Conclusions We conclude that the following countries have high growth rates for 2006–2016: Tajikistan (bank liquid reserves to assets), Kyrgyzstan (broad money supply, inflation, consumer prices), Kazakhstan (exchange rate), Uzbekistan (deflator index), Russia (interest rate on loans in the private sector), China (listed domestic companies); and high absolute amplitude values of instability: Kazakhstan (bank liquid reserves to assets), Tajikistan (broad money supply), India (exchange rate), Russia (deflator index, listed domestic companies), China (inflation, consumer prices), Kyrgyzstan (interest rate on loans in the private sector).


A study into trends in indicators of development and international cooperation of Russia, China and European Union

Smirnov V.V. I.N. Ulianov Chuvash State University (Chuv SU), Cheboksary, Chuvash Republic, Russian Federation ( v2v3s4@mail.ru )

Mulendeeva A.V. I.N. Ulianov Chuvash State University (Chuv SU), Cheboksary, Chuvash Republic, Russian Federation ( alena-mulendeeva@yandex.ru )

Journal: National Interests: Priorities and Security, #11, 2018

Subject The article discusses trends in the development and international cooperation of Russia, China, USA and EU. We forecast the priority in the international cooperation of the above countries.
Objectives The research identifies aspects for the international cooperation of Russia and China, USA and EU in the long-term horizon.
Methods The research is based on a systems approach and elements of graphic and factor analysis.
Results Having evaluated the trends in development indicators of Russia, China, USA and EU through the straight line approximation by the least squares method within 2000–2016 (and onward up to 2020), we captured high positive growth rates, low negative skewness, and high correlation coefficient. Having estimated the trends in industrial development indicators in line with a polynomial trend, rank correlation coefficients of Spearman, Kendall and cross-correlation coefficient, we found favorable pairs of international cooperation.
Conclusions and Relevance The Chinese economy take the lead in terms of development indicators within the period from 2000–2016 and onward to 2020, while the U.S. lags behind. China and the USA, Russia and USA are often opposite. Russia and China are expected to succeed in their productive cooperation in the future, while Russia and the EU may reach positive cooperation results in the short run. The Russian–Chinese cooperation will shape the global economy, gradually squeezing out the USA and EU from the leadership positions. The findings may prove useful to form the strategy for choosing the beneficial international cooperation and regulatory approach to foreign trade in the new economic reality.


Forecasting the nature of construction activities in Russia and their reasons

Smirnov V.V. I.N. Ulianov Chuvash State University (Chuv SU), Cheboksary, Chuvash Republic, Russian Federation ( v2v3s4@mail.ru )

Mulendeeva A.V. I.N. Ulianov Chuvash State University (Chuv SU), Cheboksary, Chuvash Republic, Russian Federation ( alena-mulendeeva@yandex.ru )

Journal: National Interests: Priorities and Security, #9, 2018

Importance The article discusses the nature of, and reasons for construction activities in Russia for the future period.
Objectives The research analyzes the nature of, and reasons for construction activities in Russia within the future period of time, referring to estimates of work completed as part of construction activities, its growth rate, distribution skewness, average, Business Confidence Index, portfolio of orders, actual scope of work, numbers of the employed people, average utilization level of production capacity, economic situation, shortage of orders, high taxes, lack of qualified workforce.
Methods The research employs fundamental principles of the theory and contemporary practice of systems analysis concerning types of economic activities. We also adhere to economic laws and scholarly findings on the equitable economic development.
Results We found the optimal number of operational construction entities in the Russian regions, scope of work, percentage of residential buildings, prevailing importance of productive capacity launch, and illustrate points of decline. We unveil the hierarchy of reasons influencing construction activities in Russia, with the predominating factor being rather hard to trace due to mutual relatedness.
Conclusions and Relevance The optimal forecasting line of the Russian construction activities stems from the market environment they are performed in, i.e. abolishment of monopolies and reduction in the actual scope of work. It will dilute the mutual relatedness of factors influencing the construction activities in Russia and spotlight the predominating and controllable factor. The findings should be used to adjust the Roadmap for Construction Development in Russia, set up governmental initiatives for encouraging the construction activity in the Russian regions and improve the implementation mechanism.


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