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Economics of the energy security and methodological approaches to its evaluation

Kononov Yu.D. Melentiev Energy Systems Institute of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences (ESI SB RAS), Irkutsk, Russian Federation ( kononov@isem.irk.ru )

Kononov D.Yu. Melentiev Energy Systems Institute of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences (ESI SB RAS), Irkutsk, Russian Federation ( dima@isem.irk.ru )

Journal: National Interests: Priorities and Security, #6, 2019

Subject Strategic threats to the energy security imply two crucial economic aspects, i.e. the risk of unstable energy prices and their growth and risk of long-standing energy shortage, underdeveloped production capacity due to limited or retarded investment. It is one of the most difficult tasks to measure the possible loss that a delay in the power plant launch or a palpable increase in energy prices may cause for the social security and economy. There are no generally accepted methods to quantify the significance of the above threats and determine their probability. However, it is difficult to assess the thresholds of indicators without such measurement.
Objectives The study analyzes the above threats and possible methodological approaches to their measurement.
Methods Research is based on a systems analysis of a correlation between the power engineering sector and economy as a whole, involving optimization and stochastic models.
Results We suggest using new energy security metrics and approaches to evaluating the strategic threat of production capacity shortage in power engineering. We prove the reasonableness of stochastic models to evaluate and compare investment risks of power supply options.
Conclusions and Relevance When assessing metrics of investment risks and energy price trends, it is important to consider their correlation. Thresholds of such indicators depend on power engineering development scenarios and the nature of forecast uncertainty. They should be assessed step by step through the multi-tiered system of optimization and stochastic models.


A Single approach to the evaluation of the impact of input data uncertainty during long -term regional energy supply forecasting

Gal'perova E.V. Melentiev Energy Systems Institute, Siberian Branch of RAS, Irkutsk, Russian Federation ( galper@isem.sei.irk.ru )

Kononov D.Yu. Melentiev Energy Systems Institute, Siberian Branch of RAS, Irkutsk, Russian Federation ( dima@isem.sei.irk.ru )

Journal: Regional Economics: Theory and Practice, #1, 2015

Importance The paper studies the topical issue of an input data uncertainty accounting in the long-term forecasting of energy resources demand. The long-term forecasts of the possible dynamics in energy demand are necessary and primary stage in developing of programs and strategies of energy development of the country's economy and the regions, and they also serve as an important benchmark for investment decisions in the fuel and energy complex.
     Objectives The complication of economy and the fuel and energy complex relationships, the change of management methods, transition to market economy, and the increasing role of the price factor lead to the growth of uncertainty of the future development of the countries and territories and, it also generates the implications of the demand for future energy resources.
     Methods In our study we describe the developed model and software equipment and the procedure for its application, which consists of a family of simulation stochastic and statistical models (SSSM) of larger groups of consumers for different regions of the country, which allows to assess the effects of ambiguity used in the long-term forecasting of information on perspective indicators of energy supply of a region. The specifics of complex models imply the joint usage of methods of optimization and statistical tests (the Monte Carlo method). The optimization method is used to select the rational structures of fuel supply to consumers. The statistical test (the Monte Carlo method) is used for accounting of uncertainty of future conditions. In addition, the particulars of approach allow setting the prospective technical and economic, pricing and other indicators in the form of intervals of possible values with various degree of probability of their implementation within these intervals.
     Results The article presents the results of experimental calculations for some of the larger regions of the Russian Federation in the anticipated conditions of fuel supply in 2020, and also considers the interval (complete) uncertainty of the source data. We discuss the normal distribution of probability within the interval of uncertainty and deterministic (unambiguous) values. We also demonstrate the impact of probability of the indicators implementation inside of the intervals at the change of the effective volumes of gas demand for new power plants and large boilers, and also at the uncertainty of the cost of electrical and thermal production.
     Conclusions and Relevance We point out that taking into account the factor of uncertainty of source information in determining the prognosis values of energy consumption must facilitate enhancing of the feasibility of long-term projections for the development of fuel and energy complex of the country and regions.


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