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Descriptive, predictive, and prescriptive analytics: Data, methods, and algorithms

Kogdenko V.G. National Research Nuclear University MEPhI, Moscow, Russian Federation ( kogdenko7@mail.ru )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #3, 2019

Subject The article addresses data, methods and algorithms for descriptive, predictive, and prescriptive analysis.
Objectives The purpose of the study is to identify trends in the development of business analysis and summarize characteristics of descriptive characteristics, predictive, and prescriptive analysis.
Methods The methodological basis draws on general scientific principles and research methods, like analysis and synthesis, grouping and comparison, abstraction, generalization.
Results I investigated trends in the development of business analysis, revealed modern characteristics of descriptive analysis, offered an algorithm for predictive analysis, underpinned universal financial models of company profit and cash flow for prognostic analysis, reflecting the factors of business portfolio formation and created value distribution. The paper considers trends in the prescriptive analytics development and identifies four blocks: client analytics, industrial analytics, staff analytics, ecosystem and business environment analytics. It also analyzes sources of improving the company efficiency as a result of applying the methods of prescriptive analysis.
Conclusions The article may be useful for specialists of analytical services of companies.


Predictive and prescriptive analyses: Theoretical considerations

Kogdenko V.G. National Research Nuclear University MEPhI, Moscow, Russian Federation ( kogdenko7@mail.ru )

Journal: Digest Finance, #3, 2019

Subject The article discusses theoretical considerations of predictive and prescriptive analyses.
Objectives The research summarizes algorithms and aspects of predictive, prescriptive analysis and identifies points of corporate growth triggered by the use of digital analytics.
Methods The research employs general principles and methods of research, such as analysis and synthesis, grouping and comparison, abstraction, generalization.
Results The article characterizes predictive and prescriptive analyses, modeling algorithms and identifies six focal points for analysis. I focus on key algorithms for modern analysis, i.e. setting trends and regression models, clusterization and classification of data, detection of data deviations and association analysis. The article reviews the algorithm used to build models, which involves training and test datasets. As part of each analysis, I find key aspects and points of corporate performance growth.
Conclusions and Relevance The article provides solutions for better business performance resulting from the use of digital analytics, i.e. adapting a product and marketing to customers’ needs, reduction in the cost of business processes, articulation of the effective HR policy, making preventative decisions on fraudulent transactions, optimization of business model. The findings may be useful to analysts.


Analyzing the distributive policy within the framework of fundamental analysis of the company

Kogdenko V.G. National Research Nuclear University MEPhI, Moscow, Russian Federation ( kogdenko7@mail.ru )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #2, 2016

Subject The article considers the typology and analysis of the distributive policy of the company.
Objectives The aim of the study is to review the effect of various types of distributive policy on the company's financial condition.
Methods The methodological framework includes objective principles of systems approach, the economic analysis, a logical and comprehensive approach to economic phenomena and processes assessment.
Results The paper distinguishes two types of distributive policy: dominant and subordinate, presents key characteristics of the types of distributive policy, specifics of dominant and subordinate policies. It substantiates that the subordinate policy has a positive effect on sustainable growth and return on invested capital over the long term; identifies positive impact the dominant policy has on short-term performance of the company and the weighted average cost of capital due to lowering the required return on equity and involvement of the lower-cost debt capital. The paper also presents a flow chart to analyze the distributive policy consisting of four phases.
Conclusions The findings provide a rationale for two types of distributive policy and enable to offer a methodology to analyze the policy. The article can be useful for experts of financial services, who are involved in financial decision-making under economic crisis.


Analysis of integrated reporting: Social and reputation capital

Kogdenko V.G. National Research Nuclear University MEPhI, Moscow, Russian Federation ( kogdenko7@mail.ru )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #6, 2016

Importance The article discusses the issues related to social and reputation capital as part of the analysis of company's integrated reporting.
Objectives The study aims to develop a methodology of a complex analysis of social and reputation capital based on the information to be provided in integrated reporting.
Methods The methodology rests on objective principles of the systems approach, economic analysis, logical and comprehensive approach to assessment of economic phenomena and processes. The method is developed based on the international standard on integrated reporting.
Results The offered method of analyzing the social and reputation capital includes the analysis of four components of capital, i.e. corporate (relationships between internal stakeholders and interaction between group members, analysis of corporate culture and corporate governance), market (relationships with customers and distributors, suppliers, competitors), financial (analysis of company's credit rating and its relationship with investors) and social (relationships with social agencies, State and local authorities, company's activities in social programs, environmental protection). At the final stage, the impact of social and reputation capital on the value created by the business is reviewed.
Relevance The paper investigates the problems related to the social and reputation capital analysis and offers a complex analysis technique. It may be useful for analysts evaluating company's operations based on integrated reporting.


Improving the methodology for industry analysis based on the Harvard paradigm

Kogdenko V.G. National Research Nuclear University MEPhI, Moscow, Russian Federation ( kogdenko7@mail.ru )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #10, 2019

Subject The article addresses the development of industry analysis within the Harvard paradigm.
Objectives The aim is to generalize the industry analysis algorithms and justify the methodology, using the SPARK information resource.
Methods The study rests on general scientific principles and methods of research, like abstraction, generalization of approaches of domestic and foreign authors to industry analysis.
Results The paper presents an industry analysis technique that includes four stages. The first explores basic industry conditions based on qualitative and quantitative financial information. At the second stage, the industry structure, its cyclicality and volatility of industry indicators are assessed. The third stage deals with analyzing the behavior of industry's companies in terms of operating, investment and financial activities. At the fourth stage, the possibility of creating value for industry companies, their dynamics and the industry's contribution to GDP are analyzed. The technique has been tested on companies operating in the non-ferrous metals industry.
Conclusions The main forces of competition are the intra-industry competition and market power of buyers. The efficiency of individual large businesses achieves the required profitability, however, the entire industry does not create value. The industry's contribution to GDP is declining, which is generally the case in the primary sector of the economy.


Strategic modeling of company profits under the Monte Carlo method

Kogdenko V.G. National Research Nuclear University MEPhI, Moscow, Russian Federation ( kogdenko7@mail.ru )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #9, 2018

Importance The article addresses the problems related to strategic financial modeling.
Objectives The aim is to build a strategic profit model and, on its basis, evaluate company risks, using the Monte Carlo method.
Methods The study rests on forecasting algorithms, financial modeling, and risk assessment techniques for the company as a whole.
Results I developed methods for strategic financial modeling of profit under the Monte Carlo method. It includes five stages: creating data array; constructing a projection model of profit; substantiating the predictive algorithm for model's variables and determining their projected values; assessing the volatility of the model variables and defining the lower and upper limits of their variation on the basis of confidence intervals; generating the profit scenarios under the Monte Carlo method and assessing the profit at risk. The methodology has been tested on real public data of a Russian company.
Conclusions The offered approach enables to assess the influence of volatility on business and its financial performance. The developed model helps analyze changes in the business portfolio structure, the contribution of business portfolio components to the overall company risk, and evaluate cost minimization measures. The article may be useful for specialists of financial services involved in risk-based decision-making.


Analysis of integrated reporting: Intellectual capital

Kogdenko V.G. National Research Nuclear University MEPhI, Moscow, Russian Federation ( kogdenko7@mail.ru )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #10, 2016

Subject The article considers the analysis of intellectual capital within the framework of company's integrated reporting analysis.
Objectives The aim is to develop a methodology for a complex analysis of intellectual capital, taking into account the information to be provided in integrated reporting.
Methods The methodological basis of intellectual capital analysis includes objective principles of systems approach, provisions of economic analysis, logical and comprehensive approach to economic phenomena and processes. The method was developed based on the international integrated reporting standard.
Results I developed a method to analyze intellectual capital, which includes three stages. During the first stage, the value of all intangible capital is determined (including intellectual, social, reputation and human capital) based on market capitalization, fundamental value and return on assets. At the second stage, the composition, structure and condition of intellectual capital are investigated. Intellectual property and organizational capital, which includes process and innovative capital, are analyzed separately. At the third stage, the efficiency and value of intellectual capital are assessed. For these purposes, I apply a method for count up, fundamental value method and point evaluation method.
Conclusions and Relevance The article reviews problems of the analysis of intellectual capital, and offers a method of complex analysis. It may be useful for analysts evaluating the company's activities on the basis of integrated reporting.


Specifics of Analysis of Companies Operating in the Digital Economy

Kogdenko V.G. National Research Nuclear University MEPhI, Moscow, Russian Federation ( kogdenko7@mail.ru )

Journal: Digest Finance, #2, 2018

Importance The article analyzes companies operating in the quaternary sector of the economy (digital economy).
Objectives The study aims to investigate the specifics of companies operating in the digital economy and to develop proposals for improving their analysis.
Methods The methodology of the study rests on the stakeholder theory and resource-based approach to organizational analysis.
Results I developed a methodology that is in sync with the specifics of companies operating in the quaternary sector of the economy. It includes seven steps. At the first step, corporate competitive advantages are assessed. At the second step, risks generated by key stakeholders are analyzed, including those associated with intellectual capital and social and reputation capital. At the third step, intellectual capital is examined, followed by social and reputation capital and its four components. At the fifth step, company's cash flows and financial solvency are estimated; at the sixth step, efficiency of investment activities is evaluated on the basis of cash flows from operations and financing. At the final step of the analysis, value drivers that relate directly to intellectual capital and social and reputation capital, and company's intrinsic value are estimated.
Conclusions and Relevance The proposed methodology helps assess corporate operations in the digital economy through a stakeholder approach. The article may be useful for analysts involved in corporate performance appraisal using integrated reporting.


A methodology for financial modeling based on published consolidated financial statements

Kogdenko V.G. National Research Nuclear University MEPhI, Moscow, Russian Federation ( kogdenko7@mail.ru )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #7, 2017

Importance The article considers modeling the company performance on the basis of published information.
Objectives The purpose of the study is to develop a methodology for financial modeling based on consolidated financial statements and other published information.
Methods The article presents algorithms for prospective financial analysis and calculations based on Excel 2016 forecasting tools that allow modeling and evaluating the company's future performance and financial results using the published information.
Results The developed methodology includes five stages. At the first stage of the analysis, the company's strategy is determined using the space analysis based on quantitative assessments of external and internal environment. At the second stage, the algorithm for revenue forecasting and other financial results is underpinned based on exponential smoothing and trend model building. At the third stage, regression models of current and capital expenditures are built and other indicators are justified that are needed to calculate projected financial results. At the fourth stage, parameters of the realistic, pessimistic and optimistic scenarios of company's development are substantiated. At the final stage, projected financial results and the fundamental value of the company are calculated and the likelihood of achieving the results. The proposed methodology is tested on the data of a Russian strategic company.
Conclusions and Relevance The presented methodology may be useful for analysts evaluating the company's activities on the basis of consolidated financial statements.


Specifics of analysis of companies operating in the digital economy

Kogdenko V.G. National Research Nuclear University MEPhI, Moscow, Russian Federation ( kogdenko7@mail.ru )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #3, 2018

Importance The article analyzes companies operating in the quaternary sector of the economy (digital economy).
Objectives The study aims to investigate the specifics of companies operating in the digital economy and to develop proposals for improving their analysis.
Methods The methodology of the study rests on the stakeholder theory and resource-based approach to organizational analysis.
Results I developed a methodology that takes into account the specifics of companies operating in the quaternary sector of the economy. It includes seven stages. At the first stage, company's competitive advantages are assessed. At the second stage, risks generated by key stakeholders are analyzed, including those associated with intellectual and social and reputation capital. At the third stage, intellectual capital is examined, then – social and reputation capital by its four components. At the fifth stage, company's cash flows and financial solvency are estimated; at the sixth stage, efficiency of investment activities is evaluated on the basis of cash flows from operations and financing. At the final stage of the analysis, value drivers that relate directly to intellectual and social and reputation capital, and company's fundamental value are estimated.
Conclusions The developed methodology enables to assess the operations of companies of the digital economy on the basis of stakeholder approach. The article may be useful for analysts involved in company performance evaluation using the integrated reporting.


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