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Modeling the sustainable development of different hierarchical level economic systems based on a resource-oriented approach

Lyubushin N.P. Voronezh State University, Voronezh, Russian Federation ( lubushinnp@mail.ru )

Babicheva N.E. Voronezh State University, Voronezh, Russian Federation ( sigaeva@mail.ru )

Igoshev A.K. Nizhny Novgorod Branch of Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation ( Igoshev.AK@rea.ru )

Kondrashova N.V. Voronezh State University, Voronezh, Russian Federation ( n.kondrashova@outlook.com )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #48, 2015

Subject Sustainable development is achieved by the balance of three components, i.e. economic, social and environmental. The article examines the economic component of sustainable development through assessing the utilization of different types of resources and competencies.
     Objectives Based on a resource-oriented approach to assessing the operation of economic systems of different hierarchical levels and purposes, the study aims to create algorithms (models) enabling to assess sustainable development, which is characterized by the quantity and quality (efficiency) of consumed resources.
     Methods The study rests on the historical approach using general and special methods of analysis, synthesis and analogy.
     Results The developed algorithms (models) enabled to reveal interrelations between efficient use of resources and the type of economic development, types of financial stability, the stage of systems' life cycle at the production phase, the risk level, and the financial condition. In other words, a single methodological base is created to analyze sustainable development of economic systems of different hierarchical levels and purposes.
     Conclusions and Relevance Development is sustainable, if there is an increment in the intensive type of economic systems' development. The invariant characterizing the sustainable development is the availability of intensification of resource utilization.


Assessing the risk inherent in innovation processes

Boldyrevskii P.B. National Research Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod (UNN), Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation ( bpavel2@rambler.ru )

Igoshev A.K. National Research Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod (UNN), Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation ( akigoshev@iee.unn.ru )

Kistanova L.A. National Research Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod (UNN), Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation ( lakistanova@mail.ru )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #8, 2018

Importance Innovation activities are associated with high risk, therefore, building effective models to assess risks of innovative processes is a critical task of economic analysis and innovation management.
Objectives The study focuses on economic and mathematical model building, enabling the quantitative and qualitative analysis of risk factors of innovative processes on the basis of probabilistic characteristics and hazard considerations.
Methods We employ methods of systems analysis and the concepts of fuzzy logic adapted to the management theory. MATLAB serve as a basic software.
Results We present a relatively new approach to innovative process risk assessment based on the fuzzy logic theory. Our calculations show the possibility of risk assessment by stages throughout the life cycle of the innovation. We formulated and analyzed algorithms to assess and manage risks associated with innovative processes at a certain stage of project implementation.
Conclusions The paper offers a methodology to assess risks of innovative processes based on the fuzzy logic. The methods enable to distinguish risks that are not significant and those requiring special attention and control at all interrelated stages of innovative projects. We also give examples of calculations of probability characteristics and risk levels.


The influence of economic cycles and crises on the Industrial Production Index in Russia

Boldyrevskii P.B. National Research Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod (UNN), Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation ( bpavel2@rambler.ru )

Igoshev A.K. National Research Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod (UNN), Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation ( akigoshev@iee.unn.ru )

Kistanova L.A. National Research Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod (UNN), Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation ( lakistanova@mail.ru )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #2, 2019

Subject The article addresses the impact of interrelated factors of cyclicity and crisis phenomena on the industrial production index.
Objectives The aim is to investigate trends and dependencies and build economic and mathematical models enabling to carry out quantitative and qualitative analysis of changes in the industrial production index in Russia, taking into account the influence of cyclicity and crisis phenomena.
Methods We employ methods of systems analysis and econometrics. The STATISTICA software package was used for mathematical and statistical modeling, charts and reliability analysis of the constructed models. The Rosstat data for 2000–2017 served as information base for economic and mathematical model development.
Results We present economic and mathematical models, which enable to estimate the impact of factors determining the level of investment, innovation and labor productivity on the industrial production index in Russia. The paper includes econometric equations and graphical interpretation of the correlation of factors determining the dynamics of the said index in the manufacturing industry.
Conclusions The factor of investments in fixed capital has the most significant influence on the industrial production index. The analysis of time series shows that the dynamics of the index is subject to the universal laws of cyclical development. In general, the mechanism of changes in the industrial production index is rather complicated and depends on structural peculiarities of the main branches of Russian economy.


A Cluster analysis of Russian industrial enterprises' economic sustainability

Boldyrevskii P.B. National Research Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod, Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation ( bpavel2@rambler.ru )

Igoshev A.K. National Research Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod, Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation ( akigoshev@iee.unn.ru )

Kistanova L.A. National Research Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod, Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation ( lakistanova@mail.ru )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #10, 2017

Subject The article reviews the elements and factors of economic sustainability and offers mathematical models enabling to assess the economic condition of Russian industrial enterprises under current market conditions.
Objectives The purpose is to build economic and mathematical models to analyze factors of economic stability and assess conditions for their stabilization and development.
Methods To build mathematical models and obtain quantitative findings, we employ methods of systems theory, and cluster and factor analysis. Relevant statistical data of the Federal Service of State Statistics of the Russian Federation for the period from 2010 to 2015 served as the information base for the models' development. We performed multiparameter calculations and plotting, using the Statistica software package.
Results We present the results of cluster analysis of an array of economic indicators reflecting the economic stability of industrial enterprises. We distinguish and compare two main clusters. The paper formulates and analyzes conditions, under which industrial enterprises are incorporated in a certain cluster. We present a graphical interpretation of the clustering process, along with numerical estimates.
Conclusions We offer a technique of multiparameter analysis of industrial enterprises' economic activity, enabling to evaluate their economic sustainability based on a cluster analysis. It shows that at present the enterprises of the fuel and energy complex, steelmaking industry, and finished metal product manufacturers are the most stable enterprises of the Russian industry.


Researching the synergistic effects and cyclicality of modern economic systems

Boldyrevskii P.B. National Research Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod (UNN), Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation ( bpavel2@rambler.ru )

Igoshev A.K. National Research Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod (UNN), Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation ( akigoshev@iee.unn.ru )

Kistanova L.A. National Research Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod (UNN), Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation ( lakistanova@mail.ru )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #11, 2018

Subject Various cyclical structures represent the most important part in the dynamics of economic process. To analyze the sustainability of economic systems, it is crucial to investigate causes of cyclicality and evaluate the characteristics of its impact on the economic performance of entities.
Objectives The aim is to construct economic and mathematical models enabling quantitative and qualitative analysis of economical systems' cyclical development, taking into account possible synergistic effects.
Methods We employ methods of the systems theory and systems analysis. Mathematical modeling rests on the Lotka–Volterra equations earlier developed for biological systems.
Results We considered several hypotheses. The most efficient are those relying on synergistic approach, as in this case the interrelation of external and internal factors of economic entities is considered to the fullest extent possible. The paper offers economic and mathematical models enabling to search and detect cycles, visualize circular constructions, calculate their characteristics, find centers (stationary state), considering the competitive environment of economic systems. We present mathematical models, like the Lotka–Volterra ones, and analyze the specifics of their behavior for several possible equilibrium states of economic systems. Furthermore, we developed approaches that are based on methods of phase analysis of economic systems. They help find and visualize system economic cycles.
Conclusions The proposed methods to analyze cyclical development of economic systems taking into account the synergistic effects enable to assess stability and cyclicality depending on the level of disturbances and delays in the control circuit.


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