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Tools for integrated assessment of energy security

Zaitsev S.V. Astrakhan State Technical University (ASTU), Astrakhan, Russian Federation ( voland_home@mail.ru )

Grigor'eva I.A. Astrakhan State Technical University (ASTU), Astrakhan, Russian Federation ( nadeina_irene@mail.ru )

Journal: Finance and Credit, #1, 2020

Subject The article considers coping with unstable and crisis situations in all countries of the world and in modern Russia, and ensuring the national security. The relevance of the topic under study is that the national economic security, including the economic security, runs counter to revolutionary changes in the global energy market. The violation of energy security may lead the Russian Federation to an economic crisis and a crash.
Objectives We analyze the economic security in the context of energy security. The paper develops methods to assess the energy security of the Russian Federation.
Methods In the process of analyzing economic and energy security, we applied methods of logical, mathematical and statistical analysis.
Results As part of the study, we systematize theoretical aspects of assessing the economic and energy security of the Russian Federation. We also use the integral method of assessing the energy security of the Russian Federation.
Conclusions and Relevance The energy security of the Russian Federation is in the zone of low level of support. It requires the introduction of methods to improve the situation in the fuel and energy complex of the Russian Federation.


The financial status of diamond-cutting and jewelry enterprises of the region

Grigor'eva E.E. Scientific-Research Institute of Regional Economy of North, North-Eastern Federal University (NEFU), Yakutsk, Sakha Republic, Russian Federation ( elena.grigoreva80@mail.ru )

Ivanov I.E. Mining, Jewelry and Diamond-Cutting Department of Ministry of Industry of Sakha Republic (Yakutia), Yakutsk, Sakha Republic, Russian Federation ( minprom8@mail.ru )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #34, 2015

Importance Diamond-cutting and jewelry enterprises are part of the Diamonds Factory of Yakutia, which generates a significant share of the region's industrial production. Their development and financial status have a direct impact on the Republic's socio-economic development. The susceptibility of industries to shocks in the global economy entails a financial instability of the enterprises.
     Objectives The objectives are to identify the problems related to financial support to diamond-cutting and jewelry enterprises and to analyze their financial and economic indicators.
     Methods We used methods to reconcile statistical data, and calculated financial indicators, i.e. a net profit ratio and receivables to payables ratio.
     Results
The analysis of production and sale of diamonds and jewelry shows that after crisis recovery there are soaring sales of jewelry and diamonds. The increasing overall production of jewelry makes Yakut manufacturers expand in-house sales networks, however, only in the local market. The main problem of diamond-cutting and jewelry businesses continues to be the lack of working capital to buy costly feedstock (raw diamonds and precious metals).
     Conclusions and Relevance Under unstable economy, a State unitary enterprise is the most viable form of incorporation to raise funds to purchase expensive rough diamonds.


The diamond centre of the North-Eastern Federal University: engineering services for the diamonds factory of Yakutiya

NIkolaev M.V. Scientific-Research Institute of Regional Economy of North, North-Eastern Federal University named after M.K. Ammosov, Yakutsk, Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), Russian Federation ( nikolaevmv_aic@mail.ru )

Grigor'eva E.E. Scientific-Research Institute of Regional Economy of North, North-Eastern Federal University named after M.K. Ammosov, Yakutsk, Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), Russian Federation ( elena.grigoreva80@mail.ru )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #39, 2014

Engineering centers should be a basis of production technology level growth. These centers provide training of skilled engineering personnel having appropriate modern competencies, organize applied research work oriented to the needs of industry, create infrastructure enabling rapid adaptation and introducing innovation in production. In these circumstances, the task of the North-Eastern Federal University named after M.K. Ammosov, a large business facility of the region's economy, which is currently integrating education, science and business, is to directly participate in the process of building the innovation model of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) and North-East of Russia development. The article substantiates the need to create an academic research and education diamond center to provide engineering services to processing industries of the Diamonds Factory of Russia. The authors identify the place and the role of the centre in the infrastructure of Diamonds Factory of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutiya). Engineering services imply rendering services on creating and commissioning new types of diamond production (diamond processing, diamond-coated tools, laser cutting and marking, jewelry, etc.), which is based on the modern scientific knowledge. In this status, the University would enter the equal partnership with specific businesses that might finance research and development and act as real employers for the University graduates. The authors propose the areas of the engineering services and assess their effectiveness.


Effectiveness of palliative care services in the Russian Federation: Methodological approaches and practices of evaluation

Kul'kova V.Yu. Kazan Cooperative Institute of Russian University of Cooperation, Kazan, Republic of Tatarstan, Russian Federation ( Kulkova77@mail.ru )

Grigor'eva N.S. Lomonosov Moscow State University (MSU), Moscow, Russian Federation ( Grigorieva@spa.msu.ru )

Chubarova T.V. Institute of Economics, Russian Academy of Sciences (IE RAS), Moscow, Russian Federation ( t_chubarova@mail.ru )

Journal: National Interests: Priorities and Security, #10, 2018

Importance The research is conducted as access to palliative care becomes more important and the number of the Russian citizens who need it increases. Considering limited financial resources, the effectiveness of palliative care should be evaluated.
Objectives Summarizing the theory and practice of arranging palliative care, we propose our methodological approach to evaluating the effectiveness of palliative care and pointing out effectiveness criteria.
Methods We overview, summarize and compare methodological approaches to evaluating palliative care and point out the criteria. We perform descriptive modeling of the palliative care forms and grades system in Russia in line with requirements of the European Association for Palliative Care.
Results We propose, substantiate and test the organizational approach to evaluating the effectiveness of palliative care. The palliative care forms and grades system and effectiveness criteria should be set, including the quality of the palliative patient and his/her family, affordability and painkillers, public opinion on palliative care.
Conclusions and Relevance Palliative care requires a comprehensive approach to the applicable criteria of the palliative care effectiveness and its arrangement system. For better access to palliative care, higher quality and uninterrupted treatment, we suggest using the network-based model embracing palliative care services as part of the single regional network with the advanced centers.


Mergers & Acquisitions and value of financial companies in developed capital markets of Europe

Grigor'eva S.A. National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russian Federation ( sgrigorieva@hse.ru )

Cherkasova V.A. National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russian Federation ( vcherkasova@hse.ru )

Journal: Financial Analytics: Science and Experience, #35, 2015

Importance M&A deals often have different effect on value of transacting companies. M&A announcements build value for special-purpose entities almost every time. They can bring the acquirers' value up or down in line with certain factors. We investigate mergers and acquisitions assuming that they build value of acquirers, and focusing on how the stock market responds to M&A announcements.
     Objectives The research evaluates how M&A in the financial sector influence value of acquirers. The research examines the efficiency of such deals initiated by the West European companies before and after the crisis period of 2000 through 2013.
     Methods We examine how the stock market responds to M&A announcements, using the event study analysis. Based on linear regression, we identify key factors that impact on the efficiency of deals in the financial sector. The sample comprises 72 instances.
     Results M&A have a negative impact on value of acquirers from developed economies as of the M&A announcement date. National focus of agreements and the size of acquirers positively correlate with cumulative abnormal return of acquirers from developed European economies.
     Conclusions and Relevance The outcome should be prudently construed as the real return may not correlate with market expectations, though share prices reflect market expectations of the future cash flows. We conclude that consequences of M&A in banking are visible and static or invisible and dynamic. The latter ones include restructuring and changes in lending practices, which significantly impact on the return of a combined company. However, such consequences are difficult to forecast when M&A announcements just appear.


The efficiency of power generating facilities of the Northwestern Federal District in the context of the sustainable development concept

Larchenko L.V. Herzen State Pedagogical University of Russia (Herzen University), St. Petersburg, Russian Federation ( lubalar@mail.ru )

Grigor'eva T.V. Herzen State Pedagogical University of Russia (Herzen University), St. Petersburg, Russian Federation ( grigoreva_tv@bk.ru )

Journal: Regional Economics: Theory and Practice, #41, 2014

Importance In connection with the global economy crisis, the analysis of the processes based on the eco-energy estimate which reflects the principles of sustainable development, assumes the relevance. We emphasize that these concepts are deemed as widely discussed since the seventies of the last century.
     Objectives The article aims to provide a comprehensive assessment of the efficiency (with a focus on development sustainability) of generating companies in the Northwestern Federal District. The target goal contemplates solving the following tasks: to summarize research literature ideas about the sustainable development; to consider the structure of consumption of mineral raw materials by companies, and providing the Northwestern Federal District with primary power energy resources; to identify the specifics of functioning of the Central heating and power plants, hydroelectric power stations, atomic power stations; to provide indicators of the efficiency of different types of electric power stations.
     Methods With the help of the methodology developed by the Interfax-ERA agency for assessing the eco-energy efficiency of the economy (business), we have analyzed the efficiency of power energy generation in the Northwestern Federal District and its components in the context of sustainable development.
     Results In the result of the carried out analysis, we came to a conclusion that Central heating and power plants of the Northwestern Federal District possess the greatest eco-energy efficiency of power energy production. At the same time, the District faces the need for a qualitative modernization of hydroelectric power stations. We underline that the development of mini Central heating and power plants in the remote areas of the Unified Energy System has a potential for the further development.
     Conclusions and Relevance We came to a conclusion that in the circumstances of the Northwestern Federal District's economy, the efficiency of power generation stations, using the mineral raw materials as primary energy power, has great significance. Moreover, the indicated efficiency should be evaluated from the perspective of sustainable development. Our paper identifies the need for a qualitative modernization of hydroelectric power stations. We substantiate the expedience of the use of own resources of the region.


Methods of statistical forecasting of economic indicators: electricity consumption by enterprise

Grigor'eva D.R. Branch of Kazan (Volga) Federal University in Naberezhnye Chelny, Naberezhnye Chelny, Republic of Tatarstan, Russian Federation ( d.r.grigoreva@mail.ru )

Faizullina A.G. Branch of Kazan (Volga) Federal University in Naberezhnye Chelny, Naberezhnye Chelny, Republic of Tatarstan, Russian Federation ( dlya_pisem_t@mail.ru )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #17, 2015

Subject Consumption by the population and enterprises depends on many factors: temperature, day time, weather conditions. The constant need to supply electricity to households and enterprises generates the need for protection against serious damage. Termination of energy supply to vital objects may cause accidents and lead to huge financial losses; therefore, in most cases it is advisable to spend money on crisis prevention. A possibility to solve this problem is to predict energy consumption. As a rule, experts are aware of the information about potential electricity consumption, and predicting potential damage by an expert will be sufficient. This entails little financial cost and considerable time to collect representative samples. As a rule, the information needed to predict is going to power sensors or utilities. The article discusses the application of the STATISTICA system to forecast energy consumption at enterprises. In addition to risk mitigation, forecasting is another important application. For businesses, the cost of energy bills accounts for a significant budget item. Forecasting enables to apply a more balanced approach to the formation of expenditure items.
     Objectives The main objective of the work is to analyze statistical methods and forecasting of electricity consumption volume at a plant under the method of researching the time series with the help of the STATISTICA package using neural networks. In this paper, we consider the ARIMA model, which represents a whole class of stochastic processes used for time series analysis. In addition, the paper discusses the application of neural networks possibilities in the problem of forecasting. We set the following tasks: to forecast energy consumption under the ARIMA method; to make a forecast of electricity consumption using neural networks; to check the quality of the model for the recent year; to make a forecast for a longer period.
     Methods The paper discusses the theoretical basis of the analysis and forecasting, the basic concepts of time series and their types, the theory of the neural network model. We also used the ARIMA model, the indicators of the analysis of dynamics, and performed a comparative analysis of the dynamics of electricity consumption volume for the period of 2009-2013.
     Results We have made a forecast of a time series under the ARIMA method using the neural networks.
     Discussion Neural networks have many important properties, but the key one is learning capability. Training of neural networks involves, first of all, changing the 'strength' of synaptic connections between neurons. The classification of neural networks in terms of the nature of learning divides them into neural networks using supervised learning and neural networks using unsupervised learning. The supervised learning implies that for each input vector there is a target vector representing the desired output. Together they are called a training pair. Typically, the training of a neural network is based on a certain number of training pairs, where the output vector is presented, the network output is calculated and compared to appropriate target vector. Further, the weight changes in accordance with the algorithm seeking to minimize the error. The vectors of the training set are presented sequentially, then errors are computed and the weights are adjusted for each vector as long as the error for the entire learning array reaches an acceptable level. The unsupervised learning is a much more plausible model of learning in terms of biological roots of artificial neural networks. Teuvo Kohonen and many other scholars developed the model. It does not need a target vector for output and, therefore, does not require any comparison with predetermined ideal responses. The training set only consists of input vectors. The learning algorithm adjusts the network weights so that to achieve agreed output vectors, i.e. the presentation of sufficiently close input vectors would produce the same outputs. The learning process is, therefore, highlights the statistical properties of the training set and groups similar vectors into classes.
     Conclusions and Relevance We conclude that when predicting energy consumption in conditions of limited resources and rising prices, the methods based on the use of neural networks turn out to be the most effective. This method allows detecting patterns of events, hidden levers pushing the studied parameters in either direction. Despite the apparent simplicity, this analysis has a number of nuances, which, if disregarded, lead to serious errors in the interpretation of results.


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