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Assessing the informational significance of the three-component indicator of the financial situation type based on econometrics methods

Bukharin S.V. Voronezh State University of Engineering Technologies (VSUET), Voronezh, Russian Federation ( svbuharin@mail.ru )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #11, 2018

Subject Calculating a three-component indicator of the type of financial situation is a financial standing evaluation stage. This indicator uses additional balance sheet items, and therefore, represents a more detailed assessment. However, it is poorly connected with the results of overall assessment of financial condition.
Objectives The purpose is to determine the informational significance of the said indicator based on its correlation with scoring analysis estimates.
Methods I employ methods of the expert systems theory, fuzzy sets, the analytic hierarchy process by T. Saaty, rank statistics, and correlation analysis.
Results I introduce a coefficient of adequacy of own funding sources for stock cover and analyze its correlation with the results of overall evaluation of financial condition of the same enterprises based on the scoring analysis. To eliminate the ambiguity in the capital structure estimates, I offer a composite index instead of a set of separate coefficients. Its weighing coefficients are determined through the analytic hierarchy process. To register the impact of the three-component indicator, I suggest expanding the composite index by additional feature, i.e. the coefficient of adequacy, and demonstrate the efficiency of the expansion by computations.
Conclusions The correlation of the three-component indicator with overall estimates of financial standing on the basis of scoring analysis was very weak. However, the offered technique shows that in some cases it is valuable. First of all, it is important for distressed enterprises having unsatisfactory prior estimates of capital structure.


Increasing the efficiency of exposure to bankruptcy analysis under econometric methods

Bukharin S.V. Voronezh State University of Engineering Technologies, Voronezh, Russian Federation ( svbuharin@mail.ru )

Paraskevich V.V. Voronezh State University of Engineering Technologies, Voronezh, Russian Federation ( viktoriyparaskevic@yandex.ru )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #6, 2018

Importance The article analyzes the methodology for comparing the results of various methods to assess bankruptcy exposure.
Objectives The purpose of the study is to develop a single approach to comparing the results of various methods through the introduction of a composite index of financial standing on the basis of modern econometric methods.
Methods We employ methods of the theory of expert systems, fuzzy sets, the analytic hierarchy process by Thomas Saaty, rank statistician, correlation analysis.
Results Using the theory of expert systems, we offer a single composite index of enterprise financial condition; based on the modern method of analytic hierarchy process for the W. Beaver method, which traditionally estimates only separate attributes, we introduce an integrated rating number; for the R.S. Saifullin and G.G. Kadykov method, we introduce the vector of priorities to account for various importance of attributes in the rating. The findings show that the results of these three methods comply with the introduced composite index and can be compared from a unified position.
Conclusions The introduced composite index of financial condition enabled to compare the results of three widespread methods of exposure to bankruptcy analysis on a uniform methodological basis. The paper shows that the said three methods provide a qualitatively identical picture of separating the enterprises into 'normal' and 'unsatisfactory'.


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