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Logit models to assess the risk of fraudulent misstatements in financial statements of Russian banks

Arzhenovskii S.V. Rostov State University of Economics (RSUE), Rostov-on-Don, Russian Federation ( sarzhenov@gmail.com )

Bakhteev A.V. Rostov State University of Economics (RSUE), Rostov-on-Don, Russian Federation ( a_bakhteev@mail.ru )

Slobodyan A.S. Southern Federal University, Rostov-on-Don, Russian Federation ( a.slobodyan2011@yandex.ru )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #8, 2017

Importance The article investigates the possibilities to apply regression models when performing the audit procedures to assess the risk of material misstatement in financial statement due to fraud.
Objectives The aim is to develop mathematical models enabling to assess the risk of material misstatement arising from fraud during the financial audit of Russian banks.
Methods We overview current studies dedicated to model-building to assess the risk of fraud in financial statements, perform a praxeological analysis of information on reasons for financial organizations’ license revocation published by the Bank of Russia. The paper employs econometric modeling using panel data in Stata.
Results We reviewed the existing regression models that help identify and assess the risk of material misstatement in financial statements, prepared a list of reasons for license withdrawal of Russian banks associated with financial statement fraud, offered a five-factor logit model to assess the said risk in financial statements of Russian commercial banks.
Conclusions and Relevance If used, the model will increase the efficiency of audit procedures for assessing the risk of material misstatement due to fraud in the course of financial audit of Russian banks.


Logit models to assess the risk of fraudulent misstatements in financial statements of Russian banks

Arzhenovskii S.V. Rostov State University of Economics (RSUE), Rostov-on-Don, Russian Federation ( sarzhenov@gmail.com )

Bakhteev A.V. Rostov State University of Economics (RSUE), Rostov-on-Don, Russian Federation ( a_bakhteev@mail.ru )

Slobodyan A.S. Southern Federal University (SFEDU), Rostov-on-Don, Russian Federation ( a.slobodyan2011@yandex.ru )

Journal: International Accounting, #1, 2019

Subject The article investigates the possibilities to apply regression models when performing the audit procedures to assess the risk of material misstatement in financial statement due to fraud.
Objectives The aim is to develop mathematical models enabling to assess the risk of material misstatement arising from fraud during the financial audit of Russian banks.
Methods We overview current studies dedicated to model-building to assess the risk of fraud in financial statements, perform a praxeological analysis of information on reasons for financial organizations' license revocation published by the Bank of Russia. The paper employs econometric modeling using panel data in Stata.
Results We reviewed the existing regression models that help identify and assess the risk of material misstatement in financial statements, prepared a list of reasons for license withdrawal of Russian banks associated with financial statement fraud, offered a five-factor logit model to assess the said risk in financial statements of Russian commercial banks.
Conclusions and Relevance If used, the model will increase the efficiency of audit procedures for assessing the risk of material misstatement due to fraud in the course of financial audit of Russian banks.


The conceptual behavioral model to evaluate the propensity to the risk of falsifying financial statements as part of audits

Arzhenovskii S.V. Rostov State University of Economics (RSUE), Rostov-on-Don, Russian Federation ( sarzhenov@gmail.com )

Bakhteev A.V. Rostov State University of Economics (RSUE), Rostov-on-Don, Russian Federation ( a_bakhteev@mail.ru )

Sinyavskaya T.G. Rostov State University of Economics (RSUE), Rostov-on-Don, Russian Federation ( sin-ta@yandex.ru )

Journal: International Accounting, #6, 2019

Subject The article approaches the risk of falsifying financial statements in terms of behavioral economics, propensity of corporate leaders or decision makers to some kind of deviant behavior.
Objectives The study outlines a conceptual model of the behavioral risk of falsifying financial statements as part of the risk-oriented audit approach.
Methods We integrate fraud detection methods as part of auditing and behavioral economics, which are used to find fraud propensity determinants. We also develop conceptual principles for evaluating behavioral risks of falsifying financial statements by modifying the general fraud model. We do so by adding and specifying behavioral attitudes triggering fraud.
Results The article sets out a new conceptual approach to evaluating material misstatements of financial reporting due to fraud. The approach implies that decision makers may be inclined to fraudulent behavior. We also analyze additional behavioral qualities and use a set of questionnaires. What makes this approach advantageous is that it implies an a priori focus and does not ask direct questions, providing for versatile and statistical processing of results.
Conclusions and Relevance The two-step conceptual model can underlie the audit risk assessment technique in line with behavioral qualities of people who prepare financial statements. The findings can be used by auditing firms to identify the customers’ propensity to the risk of falsifying financial statements.


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