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Regional Economics: Theory and Practice
 

Applying projections of gross regional product to determine the possible extent of economic damage under various case scenarios of the coronavirus epidemic impact on the region's economy

Vol. 18, Iss. 9, SEPTEMBER 2020

Received: 13 July 2020

Received in revised form: 29 July 2020

Accepted: 11 August 2020

Available online: 15 September 2020

Subject Heading: ECONOMIC-MATHEMATICAL MODELING

JEL Classification: C53, E27, O11, R13

Pages: 1771–1786

https://doi.org/10.24891/re.18.9.1771

Okhlopkov G.N. Institute of Mathematics and Information Science, M.K. Ammosov North-Eastern Federal University (NEFU), Yakutsk, Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), Russian Federation
math_jsu@mail.ru

ORCID id: not available

Subject. This article explores the issues related to the system of indicators of forecasting of gross regional product and their relationship.
Objectives. The article aims to obtain projections of the extent of economic damage of the coronavirus epidemic impact on the region's economy in various case scenarios, based on scenario projections of gross regional product.
Methods. For the study, I used the techniques of mathematical modeling in economics.
Results. The article presents forecast estimates of the gross regional product of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) for 2018–2020 by an inertial scenario and the coronavirus epidemic impact on the region's economy in various case scenarios for 2020, as well as the extent of possible economic damage.
Conclusions. The methodological approach developed helps provide adequate projections of possible economic damage of the coronavirus epidemic impact on the region's economy in various case scenarios.

Keywords: gross regional product, inter-industry balance model, forecast, scenario, economic damage

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