Regional Economics: Theory and Practice
 

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The network of water routes in the Northeastern Europe and Northern Transurals: analysis and forecast

Vol. 13, Iss. 37, OCTOBER 2015

PDF  Article PDF Version

Received: 27 April 2015

Received in revised form: 22 May 2015

Accepted: 26 May 2015

Available online: 20 October 2015

Subject Heading: SPATIAL ECONOMICS

JEL Classification: 

Pages: 2-19

Kiselenko A.N. Institute of Socio-Economic and Energy Problems of North, Komi Scientific Center, Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Syktyvkar, Komi Republic, Russian Federation
kiselenko@iespn.komisc.ru

Sundukov E.Y. Institute of Socio-Economic and Energy Problems of North, Komi Scientific Center, Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Syktyvkar, Komi Republic, Russian Federation
translab@iespn.komisc.ru

Tarabukina N.A. Institute of Socio-Economic and Energy Problems of North, Komi Scientific Center, Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Syktyvkar, Komi Republic, Russian Federation
nadandtar@mail.ru

Importance The article discusses the state-of-the-art of water transport in the Northeastern Europe and the Northern Transurals. During the shipping season, inland water transport is the only transportation means for residents of some districts to get to centers of the federal district, region and district.
     Objectives The research aims at determining how to overcome negative trends in river transportation in the Northeastern Europe and Northern Transurals, and the traffic volume carried by water.
     Methods When projecting traffic trends, we performed an applied regression analysis and used the Andronov-Kiselenko forecasting methodology. The methodology includes expert and formalistic methods, methods of active and passive forecasting.
     Results The research included a systems analysis of water routes of the Northeastern Europe and the Northern Transurals and their condition. We devised regression models (linear, polynomial ones with degrees 2 and 3). To obtain the projected estimates, we chose the best of them in terms of dispersion analysis: upward and top-to-bottom methods, and individual and group models.
     Conclusions and Relevance We expect the region to decrease volumes of freight and passenger traffic carried by water, within the coming two-three years. If there are no regular dredging operations, shallow draft vessels or other modern and effective water transportation means should be used for river transportation purposes. Thorough environmental and economic evaluation should precede the implementation of water infrastructure projects. The State should support water transportation in access routes leading to the Northern Sea Route and publicly important routes.

Keywords: water routes, communication, traffic, analysis, forecast

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