Subject. This article discusses the Amur River water regime in Khabarovsk for protecting the region from catastrophic floods. Objectives. The article aims to analyze and forecast the annual maximum water levels of the Amur River gauge to strengthen the protection from floods. Methods. For the study, we used the methods of exploratory analysis and data preparation using Python code, Eviews10 packages, and MS Excel. Results. The article reveals the developed linear regression models to study the maximum annual water gauge levels. It also shows the comparison between the cost of flood damage and constructing protective structures. Conclusions. It is necessary to raise the level of the Khabarovsk protective dam. The presented methods may allow statistically reliable identification of overflows threats over protective structures compared to previously used approaches.
Bortin N.N. [Problems of water resources integrated use and management of the territory of the Amur river basin]. Vodnoe khozyaistvo Rossii: Problemy, tekhnologii, upravlenie, 2017, no. 6, pp. 16–33. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.35567/1999-4508-2017-6-2 EDN: ZXFTYD
Sokolova G.V. [Analyzing the Amur river water regime for the period preceding the catastrophic flood in 2013]. Meteorologiya i gidrologiya, 2015, no. 7, pp. 66–69. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.3103/S1068373915070067 EDN: TZZYQZ
Borshch S.V., Simonov Yu.A., Khristoforov A.V. Prognozirovanie stoka rek Rossii: monografiya [Streamflow Forecasting in Russia: A monograph]. Moscow, Gidromettsentr Rossii Publ., 2023, 200 p. EDN: NDYHGD
Makhinov A.N., Lyu Sh., Kim V.I. et al. [Great floods on the Amur river during the high water period in 2009–2021]. Tikhookeanskaya geografiya, 2023, no. 1, pp. 66–74. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.35735/26870509_2023_13_6 EDN: LKSHQQ
Makhinov A.N., Kim V.I., Voronov B.A. [Floods in the Amur basin in 2013: Causes and consequences]. Vestnik Dal'nevostochnogo otdeleniya RAN, 2014, no. 2, pp. 5–14. (In Russ.) EDN: THYDOH
Danilov-Danil'yan V.I., Gel'fan A.N., Motovilov Yu.G. et al. [Disastrous flood of 2013 in the Amur basin: Genesis, recurrence assessment, simulation results]. Vodnye resursy, 2014, vol. 41, iss. 2, pp. 115–125. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.7868/S0321059614020059 EDN: RWANTN
Danilov-Danil'yan V.I. [Possibilities and basis for forecasting the economic consequences of climate change]. Nauchnye trudy Vol'nogo ekonomicheskogo obshchestva Rossii, 2022, vol. 235, iss. 3, pp. 410–419. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.38197/2072-2060-2022-235-3-410-419
Motovilov Yu.G., Danilov-Danil'yan V.I., Dod E.V. et al. [Assessing the flood control effect of the existing and projected reservoirs in the middle Amur basin by physically-based hydrological models]. Vodnye resursy, 2015, vol. 42, iss. 5, p. 476. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.7868/S032105961503013X EDN: UDFAGZ
Danilov-Danilyan V., Gel'fman A.N. [A national-scale catastrophe]. Nauka i zhizn', 2014, no. 1, pp. 32–39. (In Russ.) EDN: WIIBJB