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National Interests: Priorities and Security
 

Developing the approaches to monitoring of risks of failure to achieve the national development objective Digital Transformation in the strategic planning system of the Russian Federation

Vol. 17, Iss. 12, DECEMBER 2021

Received: 26 August 2021

Received in revised form: 15 September 2021

Accepted: 30 September 2021

Available online: 14 December 2021

Subject Heading: NATIONAL INTERESTS

JEL Classification: C51, O21

Pages: 23792396

https://doi.org/10.24891/ni.17.12.2379

Lyubov A. BELYAEVSKAYA-PLOTNIK Institute of Economics of Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation
belyaevskaya@inbox.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4962-4095

Natalya Yu. SOROKINA Institute of Economics of Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation
sorokina-tula@mail.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5180-3389

Subject. The article investigates identification of risks that prevent the achievement of national development objectives and implementation of national projects, as the methodological approach to their assessment is still in the process of formation.
Objectives. The purpose is to develop conceptual and methodological approaches to monitoring of risks of missing the national development targets in the strategic planning system of the Russian Federation.
Methods. The research methodology rests on the theoretical basis of indicative analysis. In its logic, the risks of failure to achieve the targets of national development of the Russian Federation can be tracked through monitoring the achieved and predicted values of target indicators within their valid values.
Results. The paper specifies factors that have a significant impact on the achievement of the national target Digital Transformation, defines quantifiable values of the target indicator The Share of Households with Broadband Internet Access and limits of its permissible values. We presented a forecast, showing the most likely behavior of the analyzed indicator in the strategic perspective until 2030, revealed that the target value of the indicator, defined at the level of 97%, significantly exceeds the results of trend forecasting, which is indicative of a high risk of non-achievement of target by the key date.
Conclusions. Determination of risks of failure to achieve the digital transformation of national development objectives should become an essential stage in the procedure for monitoring the implementation of strategic planning documents in Russia.

Keywords: digital transformation, strategic planning, indicative analysis, risk of failure to achieve objectives, national development objective

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