National Interests: Priorities and Security

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The methodological apparatus for planning and regulating trends in high-tech production costs under risk

Vol. 16, Iss. 3, MARCH 2020

Received: 9 January 2020

Received in revised form: 26 January 2020

Accepted: 17 February 2020

Available online: 16 March 2020

Subject Heading: Priorities of Russia

JEL Classification: A12, G18, G28, H61, H62

Pages: 400–414

Leonov A.V. 46th Central Research Institute of Ministry of Defense of Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation

Pronin A.Yu. 46th Central Research Institute of Ministry of Defense of Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation

Subject The article discusses the methodological apparatus for assessing how many financial resources are needed, and optimize their gradual consumption in high-tech production projects. Results of the projects can be forecasted only as a probable estimate, since there is great uncertainty due to a multitude of random factors.
Objectives The study aims to form the methodological apparatus to assess the amount of financial resources needed under risk and substantiate the reasonable strategy for consuming them in high-tech production projects within a given period of time. The apparatus is to allow for quick adjustments of the financing plan and estimation of project expenditures.
Methods We applied the comprehensive approach to planning and regulating trends in high-tech production costs, methods of economic and mathematical modeling and the probability theory.
Results We reviewed methods used to assess how many financial resources are needed through demand probability distribution laws. Based on them, we devised the interval technique for regulating cost trends so as to substantiate the reasonable strategy for the performance of projects with the desired probability within the given period of time. What distinguishes the interval technique is that it provides the overall vision of the period, during which the project will be performed, and the probability of the advanced prediction of a shortage or excess of financial resources.
Conclusions and Relevance The methodological apparatus proposed herein will facilitate the technological and economic evaluation of various options of high-tech production and choose those ones which ensure the best use of financial resources, quickly regulate the economic dynamism throughout the high-tech production phases in line with a variety of factors, which randomly emerge at certain phases.

Keywords: planning, regulation, tools, methods, high-tech products


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Vol. 16, Iss. 3
March 2020