Subject. This article focuses on the theoretical and prognostic aspects of the process of financing pension provision in the People's Republic of China, taking into account the factors of population aging and the emerging deficit of the pension fund. Objectives. The article aims to predict the deficit of the pension fund in China based on research on trends in population aging. Methods. For the study, we used the methods of analysis and modeling, namely the actuarial model introduced by Jiang Yingxia (2013) was applied to forecast the pension gap of urban enterprise employees in China from 2025 to 2050. Results. The article presents calculations for three values of pension replacement ratios, showing the preservation and increase of the pension fund deficit, as well as forecast calculations showing that the deficit of the pension fund in China shows an increasing trend year by year. Conclusions and Relevance. The article concludes that government subsidies are only a short-term solution to the pension fund deficit, so China needs other methods to address its root causes and population aging in general. The results of the study can be useful for leveling the deficit of the pension fund and the formation of a balanced pension system in the People's Republic of China through the development of appropriate measures.
Keywords: pension fund, actuarial model of pension revenue and expenditure, population aging, pension gap, pension funding
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