+7 925 966 4690, 9am6pm (GMT+3), Monday – Friday
ИД «Финансы и кредит»

JOURNALS

  

FOR AUTHORS

  

SUBSCRIBE

    
Finance and Credit
 

Problems of modeling the stability of the financial market as a dynamic system

Vol. 29, Iss. 1, JANUARY 2023

Received: 13 December 2022

Received in revised form: 27 December 2022

Accepted: 17 January 2023

Available online: 30 January 2023

Subject Heading: THEORY OF FINANCE

JEL Classification: C51, C52, G10, G17

Pages: 4–20

https://doi.org/10.24891/fc.29.1.4

Rustem R. AKHMETOV Kazan (Volga Region) Federal University (KFU), Kazan, Republic of Tatarstan, Russian Federation
Rust-ar@mail.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3907-830X

Subject. The article addresses the stable functioning of the financial market and its protection against financial crises as the main indicator of financial system’s stability. It considers the history of the issue, enabling to conclude that financial markets are built mainly on the principle of unstable equilibrium in contrast to the more stable equilibrium underlying the commodity markets and industrial production.
Objectives. The article attempts to compare well-known stochastic models with dynamic and chaotic systems.
Methods. The study employs stochastic modeling (autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models), investigates methods and approaches to solving some types of differential stochastic equations, in particular, the Ito and Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov equations.
Results. Financial markets are considered within the theory of dynamic systems as an example of a non-linear system. It is extremely difficult to predict the behavior of such a system, precisely because of the non-linearity, which is reduced to random and chaotic processes. Through mathematical transformations, the paper shows that solutions are reduced to multidimensional stochastic volatility models.
Conclusions. Stochastic volatility models, despite their relative theoretical elaboration and practical applicability, can lead to dynamic chaos, when there is a vector of asset return, the conditional covariance matrix of which changes over time.

Keywords: financial stability, financial crisis, nonlinear dynamic system, stochastic model, nonlinear differential equation

References:

  1. Il'yasov S.M. [The nature and major factors of the banking system’s stability]. Den'gi i kredit = Russian Journal of Money and Finance, 2006, no. 2, pp. 45–48. (In Russ.)
  2. Lakshina O.A., Chekmareva E.N. [Analysis and assessment of financial system stability]. Den'gi i kredit = Russian Journal of Money and Finance, 2005, no. 10, pp. 24–29. (In Russ.)
  3. Kydland F.E., Prescott E.C. Time to Build an Aggregate Fluctuations. Econometrica, 1982, vol. 50, no. 6, pp. 1345–1370. URL: Link
  4. Kondrat'ev N.D. Problemy ekonomicheskoi dinamiki [Problems of economic dynamics]. Moscow, Ekonomika Publ., 1989, 523 p.
  5. Dou Sh. [The psychology of financial markets: Keynes, Minsky and emotional finance]. Voprosy Ekonomiki, 2010, no. 1, pp. 99–113. (In Russ.) URL: Link
  6. Minsky H.P. The Financial Instability Hypothesis: An Interpretation of Keynes and an Alternative to “Standard” Theory. Nebraska Journal of Economics and Business, 1977, vol. 16, no. 1, pp. 5–16. URL: Link
  7. Skorobogatov A. [Stock market, the institutional structure and stability problem in the capitalist economy]. Voprosy Ekonomiki, 2006, no. 12, pp. 80–97. (In Russ.) URL: Link
  8. Kindleberger C.P., Aliber R. Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises. Hoboken, NJ, John Wiley & Sons, 2005, 5th edition, 355 p.
  9. Mishkin F. Ekonomicheskaya teoriya deneg, bankovskogo dela i finansovykh rynkov [The economic theory of money, banking and financial markets]. Moscow, Aspekt Press Publ., 1999, 820 p.
  10. Shiryaev A.N. Osnovy stokhasticheskoi finansovoi matematiki. T. 1. Fakty, modeli [Fundamentals of stochastic financial mathematics. Vol. 1. Facts, models]. Moscow, FAZIS Publ., 1998, 512 p.
  11. Campbell J.Y., Lo A.W., MacKinlay A.C. The Econometrics of Financial Markets. Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1996, 632 p.
  12. Engle R.F. Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation. Econometrica, 1982, vol. 50, no. 4, pp. 987–1007. URL: Link
  13. Bollerslev T. Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 1986, vol. 31, pp. 307–327. URL: Link

View all articles of issue

 

ISSN 2311-8709 (Online)
ISSN 2071-4688 (Print)

Journal current issue

Vol. 30, Iss. 3
March 2024

Archive