Yashin S.N.National Research Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod, Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation jashinsn@yandex.ru
Trifonov Yu.V.National Research Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod, Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation decanat@ef.unn.ru
Koshelev E.V.National Research Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod, Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation ekoshelev@yandex.ru
Subject The article addresses the problem of adjusting the innovation strategy of innovative and industrial clusters under uncertainty in external and internal environment. Objectives The objective of the research is to develop a method to adjust the innovation strategy of innovative and industrial cluster development. Methods To manage risks inherent in innovation and industrial cluster evolution, we apply the real put option technology to abandon a strategy. The level of market capitalization in money terms can be used as a function that most adequately characterizes the status and development prospects for individual companies or industries. The incremental cash flow, which represents a difference between the values of market capitalization at certain time intervals can be used as a cash flow of branch projects. Results Using the real put option method to adjust the strategy of the Nizhny Novgorod innovation and industrial cluster made it possible to obtain a full effect from the strategy, which is substantially higher than the minimum required value determined by the sale of the Volga Shipping company. In this case, the option for a possible abandonment of the started strategy of the cluster substantially increases the considered total effect. Conclusions and Relevance Such an approach to managing the risks of cluster evolution, which applies real option technologies enables to adjust the global strategy of the region, if necessary.
Keywords: cluster, real option, put option, innovation strategy
References:
Kalyuzhnova N.Ya., Verkhoturova E.V. [Foresight-technology as a tool for forecasting innovative development of regions]. Fundamental'nye issledovaniya = Fundamental Research, 2013, no. 6-5, pp. 1196–1203. (In Russ.)
Calof J., Richards G.S., Smith J. [Foresight, Competitive Intelligence and Business Analytics – Tools for Making Industrial Programmes More Efficient]. Forsait = Foresight-Russia, 2015, vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 68–81. doi: 10.17323/1995-459X.2015.1.68.81
Martin B.R. et al. Project Foresight. A Proposal Submitted to the Cabinet Office. Brighton, UK, SPRU, University of Sussex, 1983.
Martin B.R. et al. Research Foresight: Priority-Setting in Science. London and New York, Pinter Publishers, 1989, 366 p.
Martin B.R. The Origins of the Concept of ‘Foresight’ in Science and Technology: An Insider's Perspective. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2010, vol. 77, iss. 9, pp. 1438–1447.
Kharitonov V., Kurel'chuk U., Masterov S. [Long-term stochastic forecasting of the nuclear energy global market]. Forsait = Foresight-Russia, 2015, vol. 9, no. 2, pp. 58–71. (In Russ.) doi: 10.17323/1995-459X.2015.2.58.71
Chernykh L.A. [Foresight project as tool for damping vibrations in cyclic at development of Russian defense industry]. Sovremennaya ekonomika: problemy i resheniya = Modern Economics: Problems and Solutions, 2012, no. 7, pp. 66–75. (In Russ.)
Damodaran A. Investment Valuation: Tools and Techniques for Determining the Value of Any Asset. New York, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2002, 993 p.
Klychova, G.S., Kuznetsov V.P., Trifonov Y.V., Yashin S.N., Koshelev E.V. Upgrading Corporate Equipment As an Asian Real Option. International Business Management, 2016, vol. 10, iss. 21, pp. 5130–5137. doi: 10.3923/ibm.2016.5130.5137
Myers S.C. Determinants of Corporate Borrowing. Journal of Financial Economics, 1977, vol. 5, iss. 2, pp. 147–175.
Roche J. The Value of Nothing: Mastering Business Valuations. London, Global Professional Publishing, 2005, 250 p.
Trifonov Yu.V., Yashin S.N., Koshelev E.V. Tekhnologii fondovogo rynka v biznese: monografiya [Stock market technologies in business: a monograph]. N. Novgorod, Pechatnaya masterskaya RADONEZH, 2015, 151 p.
Yashin S.N., Trifonov Yu.V., Koshelev E.V. [Planning the optimum synergy effect of a cluster with use of technologies of foresight and financial arbitrage]. Upravlenie ekonomicheskimi sistemami, 2016, no. 11. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Brigham E.F., Gapenski L.C. Intermediate Financial Management. 4th ed. Orlando, FL, The Dryden Press, 1993, 1122 p.
Ruskeepaa H. Mathematica Navigator: Mathematics, Statistics and Graphics. 3rd ed. Finland, University of Turku, 2009, 1135 p.
Kruschwitz L. Finanzierung und Investition. Munchen, Wien, R. Oldenbourg Verlag, 1999, 563 p.
Ogier T., Rugman J., Spicer L. The Real Cost of Capital: A Business Field Guide to Better Financial Decisions. London, Prentice Hall, 2004, 291 p.
