Subject The article addresses revenues from income tax to the regional budget, and analyzes a possibility of using the factor models to forecast the revenues from this tax. Objectives The purpose of the study is to establish a connection between socio-economic indexes of territorial entities and the volume of revenues per one specific entity. Methods We selected significant factors and built one- and two-factor mathematical models of revenues from income tax. On the case of the Nizhny Novgorod oblast, we analyzed data provided by the Federal Tax Service and the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation and created regression models. Results We developed a one-factor model of relation of the total indicator (income tax channeled to the regional budget) with attribute factors, and highlighted two significant attribute factors to be used in the two-factor model reflecting a crucial impact of indicators on the formation of tax liabilities on income taxes to be transferred to the regional budget. Conclusions and Relevance The study establishes a mathematical relation (in the form of regression models) between the revenues from income tax and their determinants. The findings may be used for short-term forecasting of budget revenues.
Keywords: income tax, regression model, attribute factor, regional budget
References:
Abazova F.M., Abregova M.K., Tatueva F.B., Kochesokova I.Kh. [Tax forecasting and assessment of taxable capacity from the perspective of improving the tax receipts to the budget system]. Ekonomika i predprinimatel'stvo = Economy and Entrepreneurship, 2014, no. 5-2, pp. 59–63. (In Russ.)
Gamukin V.V. Byudzhetnye riski: gruppy, vidy, primery: monografiya [Budget risks: Groups, types, examples: a monograph]. Tyumen, Tyumen State University Publ., 2015, 340 p. (In Russ.)
Lapushinskaya G.K., Lebedeva V.I. [A possibility to assess taxable capacity of territories by means of the concept of elasticity]. Vestnik Tverskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Seriya: Ekonomika i upravlenie = Bulletin of Tver State University. Series: Economy and Management, 2014, no. 4-1, pp. 107–114. (In Russ.)
Chesnokova L.A., Yashina N.I. [Creating the tax distribution algorithm by the budget system levels]. Nalogi i nalogooblozhenie = Taxes and Taxation, 2016, no. 4, pp. 300–316. (In Russ.)
Boren C. Equitable apportionment – administrative discretion and uniformity in division of corporate income for State-tax purposes. Southern California Law Review, 1976, no. 5, pp. 991–1078.
Dexter W.D. The Business Versus Non-business Distinction under the Uniform Division of Income for Tax Purpose Act. Urban Lawyer, 1978, vol. 10, no. 2, pp. 243–265.
Dixit A., Londregan J. Fiscal federalism and redistributive politics. Journal of Public Economics, 1998, vol. 68, iss. 2, pp. 153–180.
Brager D.K., Bogomolova O.Yu., Brizitskaya A.V. et al. Sovremennaya ekonomika: analiz sostoyaniya i perspektivy razvitiya [Modern economy: Analysis of the state and prospect for development]. Stavropol, Logos Publ., 2015.
Makarov A.P. [Revenue from taxation to the consolidated budget and focal points of a tax policy]. Metallurg = Metallurgist, 2007, no. 3, pp. 16–18. (In Russ.)
Zaikov V.P., Kozhevnikov M.S. [Factor modeling of budget revenues from indirect taxes]. Trudy Kubanskogo gosudarstvennogo agrarnogo universiteta = Proceedings of Kuban State Agrarian University, 2015, no. 56, pp. 42–48. (In Russ.)
Sirgazhina D.I. [Analyzing the trends in tax receipts to the budget of the Russian Federation]. Nachalo v nauke. Materialy Vserossiiskoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii shkol'nikov, studentov, magistrantov i aspirantov [Proc. Sci. All-Russia Conf. The Basis is in Science]. Ufa, Aeterna Publ., 2014, pp. 124–126. (In Russ.)
Dadasheva Yu.A. [Forecasting the property tax receipts: A method of structural modeling]. Nalogovaya politika i praktika = Tax Policy and Practice, 2009, no. 11, pp. 66–70. (In Russ.)
Sklyar A.V., Tsatsulin A.N. [Modeling the revenues of regional budgets from corporate and personal income tax]. Obshchestvo. Sreda. Razvitie = Society. Environment. Development, 2011, no. 2, pp. 4–10. (In Russ.)
Aliev B.Kh. [On tax regulation of income of constituent entities of the Russian Federation]. Finansy = Finance, 2010, no. 11, pp. 32–38. (In Russ.)
Smirnov V.P., Erokhina L.D., Pindyurina S.V. [Implementing the regional expenditure budget in the post-crisis period]. Sovremennye nauchnye issledovaniya i innovatsii,2014, no. 6. (In Russ.) Available at: web.snauka.ru/issues/2014/06/36163.
Musaev A.F.O., Gasanly Ya.G., Shykhaliev V.R. [Assessment of dependence of income tax receipts on the GDP volume]. Mezhdunarodnyi nauchnyi zhurnal = International Scientific Journal, 2009, no. 2, pp. 19–22. (In Russ.)
Pavlova A.R. [Planning and forecasting the revenues from taxes and fees: Evidence from the Sakha (Yakutia) Republic]. Nauchnye preobrazovaniya v epokhu globalizatsii. Sbornik statei Mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii [Proc. Int. Sci. Conf. Scientific Transformations under the Globalization Era]. Ufa, OMEGA SAINS Publ., 2015, pp. 235–238. (In Russ.)
Popova T.N. [On the influence of corporate finance on tax revenues to the budget of the Sakha (Yakutia) Republic]. Problemy sovremennoi ekonomiki = Problems of Modern Economics, 2014, no. 4, pp. 298–300. (In Russ.)
Korostelkina I.A. [A methodology to plan and forecast tax revenues considering the impact of tax and charges arrears]. Upravlencheskii uchet = Management Accounting, 2011, no. 3, pp. 47–57. (In Russ.)
Yashina N.I., Emel'yanova O.V. [A technique to assess the financial condition of consolidated budgets of subjects of the Russian Federation]. Vestnik Nizhegorodskogo universiteta im. N.I. Lobachevskogo = Vestnik of Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod, 2008, no. 5, pp. 154–166. (In Russ.)