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The factor modeling of revenues from income tax to the regional budget

Vol. 22, Iss. 45, DECEMBER 2016

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Received: 24 May 2016

Received in revised form: 9 August 2016

Accepted: 9 November 2016

Available online: 20 December 2016

Subject Heading: FISCAL SYSTEM

JEL Classification: H21, H25, H61, H77

Pages: 20-33

Yashina N.I. National Research Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod, Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation

Malyshev S.A. National Research Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod, Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation

Chesnokova L.A. National Research Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod, Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation

Subject The article addresses revenues from income tax to the regional budget, and analyzes a possibility of using the factor models to forecast the revenues from this tax.
Objectives The purpose of the study is to establish a connection between socio-economic indexes of territorial entities and the volume of revenues per one specific entity.
Methods We selected significant factors and built one- and two-factor mathematical models of revenues from income tax. On the case of the Nizhny Novgorod oblast, we analyzed data provided by the Federal Tax Service and the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation and created regression models.
Results We developed a one-factor model of relation of the total indicator (income tax channeled to the regional budget) with attribute factors, and highlighted two significant attribute factors to be used in the two-factor model reflecting a crucial impact of indicators on the formation of tax liabilities on income taxes to be transferred to the regional budget.
Conclusions and Relevance The study establishes a mathematical relation (in the form of regression models) between the revenues from income tax and their determinants. The findings may be used for short-term forecasting of budget revenues.

Keywords: income tax, regression model, attribute factor, regional budget


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