Pavel A. ZHOKHOVSKIIRussian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), Moscow, Russian Federation p.zh.science@gmail.com ORCID id: not available
Subject. Methods and tools for the initial assessment of business concepts of innovative projects (startups) at early stages of development in conditions of high uncertainty and a lack of historical financial data, limiting the use of traditional analytical assessment models. Objectives. Development of an integrated system for assessing the potential success of business concepts, combining qualitative and quantitative methods, standardization of input parameters with differentiation for B2C and B2B models, as well as an integral index with empirically based weighting factors of success. Methods. Comparative analysis and systematization of evaluation methods described in academic and applied sources were used; content analysis of analytical publications with frequency counting and normalization of quantitative success factors; methods for constructing integral indexes based on weighted aggregation. Results. A classification of assessment methods is proposed, differentiated by project stage and data composition, and the logic of their consistent and complementary application is substantiated. A standard of input parameters has been formed from five blocks with differentiation for B2C and B2B models. Based on content analysis, a system of 26 criteria was built, aggregated into six blocks, weighting coefficients were calculated and an integral index of the startup's potential success was formed. Testing on two verified Russian cases with opposite outcomes confirmed the model's ability to differentiate projects by the level of potential success. Conclusions. The proposed approach ensures comparability and validity of the initial assessment of business concepts at an early stage; the differentiating ability of the integral model has been confirmed in verified Russian cases with opposite outcomes.
Keywords: startup, assessment of business concepts, venture investment, integral index, startup success factors
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