Subject. The dynamics of money supply and lending in Russia. Objectives. To identify macroeconomic imbalances in the dynamics of money supply and lending. Methods. The study is based on a comprehensive analysis of the dynamic series of monetary aggregates using mathematical and statistical methods of trend approximation, structural decomposition by segments of the credit market, assessment of indicators of credit conditions and demand. Results. The long-term growth of lending to the economy and the broad money supply has been revealed, with the growth rate of loans usually outstripping the growth rate of the money supply. The ratio of loans to the money supply is highly volatile, temporarily decreasing during periods of external shocks, but always recovering, indicating stable credit expansion. A structural shift has been identified – there is a downward trend in credit demand in the corporate sector, signaling pessimistic investment sentiment, while there is a potential recovery in demand in the segments of small and medium-sized businesses and the population. Conditions and demand for loans showed extreme volatility, responding most sharply to external shocks in the segment of small and medium-sized enterprises. Conclusions. The results of the study show a picture of a credit system formed under conditions of permanent stress, which caused imbalances between the rapid growth of the money supply and lending, as well as the capabilities of the real sector and the resources of the population.
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