Subject. The credit cycle in the Russian economy. Objectives. To characterize the credit cycle in the Russian economy. Methods. The research is based on the application of special economic and mathematical methods of statistical and visual data analysis, construction of trend models and estimation of approximation coefficients to determine the strength of trends. Results. A significant credit expansion has been revealed, during which the total debt of non-financial organizations and households has more than doubled. Cyclical patterns have been found within the corporate lending market, manifested in three phases: rapid growth in lending to small and medium-sized businesses; stabilization; and a shift in focus to lending to large businesses (legal entities and individual entrepreneurs). It was found that the traditional phases of the credit cycle (expansion, overheating, and contraction) were indistinctly expressed. The expansion phase was forced and state-induced. The overheating phase manifested itself not in a halt in growth, but in the accumulation of debt imbalances and the growing vulnerability of the economy. The classic compression phase was suppressed and postponed due to the continuation of government support programs and the specific business response to the high key rate. It was determined that the debt growth was heterogeneous: from "crisis" to "adaptive" and "inflationary". The credit cycle was transformed from a classical market model into a system of managed credit expansion, where the state was a key element that replaced market mechanisms. This has led to the accumulation of significant structural imbalances. Conclusions. The research is relevant for applied economics and finance, and its value lies not only in stating facts, but also in formulating warnings about systemic risks for key stakeholders in the Russian economy.
Keywords: imbalance, debt, credit, phases, cycle
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