Subject. Forecasting the socioeconomic state of single–industry towns based on the application of models for assessing the probability of bankruptcy of city-forming organizations (using the example of the coal industry in the Kemerovo Oblast – Kuzbass). Objectives. Development of a methodology for forecasting the socioeconomic development of Russian single-industry municipalities in the coal industry. Methods. Comparative analysis, coefficient method, MDA and logit models, decision tree, integral method, weighted average method, correlation and regression analysis are used. Results. The article presents the results of assessing the probability of bankruptcy of the leading enterprises of the Kuzbass coal industry in the pre-crisis period in comparison with their current actual state using the author's models. For industrial single-industry towns, it is proposed to calculate the cumulative probability of bankruptcy of a city-forming organization of one territory by summing the weighted average values of the probability of bankruptcy of enterprises, taking into account the average number of employees. The indicator of projected financial stability (the inverse of the bankruptcy risk level) of a city-forming enterprise and the current level of socioeconomic condition of a single-industry city form the basis for the required methodology for assessing the prospects for the development of a single-industry territory. The level of the current state of the single-industry town was obtained based on the integration of the main socioeconomic indicators of the territory. The proposed method has been tested on urban coal-producing single-industry towns in the Kemerovo Oblast, and the results are presented using the graphical method. As a result, it was possible to form three different groups of single-industry towns, most of which were classified as cities with industrial potential. Conclusions. The predictive power of the author's models for assessing the probability of bankruptcy of city-forming organizations using the example of the Kuzbass coal industry was confirmed and showed a high result of 92% in the future up to 5 years. The presented model for quantifying the prospects of single-industry towns is retrospective. To assess risks for the future, it is necessary to use a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods. Taking into account the perspective analysis and risk assessment of single-industry territories using qualitative methods, the crisis in the coal industry poses a significant threat to all single-industry coal towns, especially industrial ones that fall into the industrial potential group.
Keywords: assessment of bankruptcy probability, city-forming enterprises, coal industry, level of socioeconomic development, single-industry towns
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