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Analysis of defense industry complex R&D financing at the stages of growth and reduction of military expenses

Varshavskii A.E. Central Economics and Mathematics Institute of RAS, Moscow, Russian Federation ( varshav@cemi.rssi.ru )

Makarova Iu.A. Central Economics and Mathematics Institute of RAS, Moscow, Russian Federation ( mak-yuliya@mail.ru )

Journal: National Interests: Priorities and Security, #18, 2014

By means of the carried-out analysis and modeling, and considering the USA and USSR experience, the authors have studied the research and development financing of the defense industry complexes at the stages of increase and reduction of the general military expenses to work out certain recommendations to Russia.


Research of the economic incentive methods of transition of airlines on the domestic aircraft equipment (narrow-bodied aircraft of civil aviation)

Varshavskii L.E. Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, RAS, Moscow, Russian Federa-tion ( hodvar@mail.ru )

Journal: National Interests: Priorities and Security, #24, 2014

The article discusses current situation in the domestic civil aircraft industry and problems arising with entrance of Russia in WTO. The author analyzes competition in the markets of narrow-bodied aircraft and of aircraft engines. The paper offers some approaches to the transition of airlines on domestic civil aviation based on the use of instru-ments of credit and fiscal policy. The paper analyzes the impact of tax rates, policy formation repayment of loans and interest expenses on key economic indicators of new airlines receiving new equipment according to the stable schedule of deliveries.


An analysis of engineering workforce indicators of Russia

Varshavskii A.E. Central Economics and Mathematics Institute of RAS, Moscow, Russian Federation ( varshav@cemi.rssi.ru )

Kochetkova E.V. Central Economics and Mathematics Institute of RAS, Moscow, Russian Federation ( k.v.kochetkova@gmail.com )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #9, 2016

Importance The article addresses the problem of engineering workforce demand and supply in Russia, which is very urgent for re-industrialization and innovation development.
Objectives The aim is to reveal long-term trends in engineering workforce demand and supply in Russia and search for ways to identify needs for engineering and technical specialists using the retrospective analysis of engineering workforce indicators and cross-country comparisons for the most developed countries and Russia.
Methods The research rests on an economic and statistical analysis and cross-country comparisons.
Results We reviewed changes in engineering workforce indicators for the USSR (RSFSR). Based on cross-country comparisons, we conclude on the existence of relatively stable indicators of engineering workforce, both in developed countries and in Russia.
Conclusions and Relevance The analysis demonstrated that the problem of engineering workforce shortage both in developed countries and in Russia is of multidimensional nature: there are similar problems characterizing the labor market, including structural imbalances. We believe, it is crucial to consider education quality and monitor the demand for engineering workforce in the professional and qualification structure of engineering and technical specialists.


Synergy of the military and civilian production: A case study of the aircraft industries

Varshavskii A.E. Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation ( varshav@cemi.rssi.ru )

Dubinina M.G. Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation ( mgdub@yandex.ru )

Journal: National Interests: Priorities and Security, #1, 2017

Importance The research reviews how the military and civilian segments of the military-industrial sector interact and influence one another, illustrating companies operating in the aircraft industry.
Objectives The research identifies an increase (decrease) in performance indicators of leading aircraft companies in the most advanced countries when the percentage of civilian production rises (falls).
Methods The methodology implies an examination and modeling of cost effectiveness indicators of production of military and civilian machines in the leading aircraft companies of the most advanced nations.
Results The foreign aircraft companies were proved to see their performance indicators rise as civilian production increases within the entire output.
Conclusions and Relevance We found a considerable positive and synergistic effect on companies operating in the military-industrial sector when civilian production increases. It should be taken into account in steering the development of the national aircraft industry and other segments of the military-industrial sector. The should be a comprehensive approach, with State orders and other measures being made for national aircraft products.


A problem of engineering workforce shortage

Varshavskii A.E. Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, RAS, Moscow, Russian Federation ( varshav@cemi.rssi.ru )

Kochetkova E.V. Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, RAS, Moscow, Russian Federation ( k.v.kochetkova@gmail.com )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #32, 2015

Importance The article deals with the problem of engineering workforce shortage. The issue is important in many developed countries, and it is especially urgent for the Russian economy in view of modernization and innovation development.
     Objectives The aim is to analyze engineering workforce demand and supply mismatch in the most developed countries and in Russia.
     Methods The analysis rests on the study of analytical data, OECD countries materials, cross-country comparisons and econometric modeling.
     Results We review the main reasons for engineering workforce demand and supply mismatch in foreign developed countries and in Russia. The econometric modeling based on statistical data for OECD countries reveals factors affecting the decrease in graduates majoring in Engineering. The study also considers the problems caused by globalization of labor and education markets.
     Conclusions and Relevance The factors affecting the engineering workforce shortage include a decrease in the number of graduates majoring in Engineering, low occupational prestige, problems in coordinating the demand for engineers and specialist training. The econometric analysis shows that indicators of training and supply of engineering workforce have positive correlation with the level of manufacturing industry development, especially of high-technology production, and negative - with the level of inequality. We conclude that the focus of foreign countries on employing foreign specialists threatens the engineering potential of Russia.


The need to consider contemporary trends in the development of the military-industrial complex

Varshavskii A.E. Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation ( varshav@cemi.rssi.ru )

Makarova Yu.A. Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation ( mak-yuliya@mail.ru )

Journal: National Interests: Priorities and Security, #12, 2016

Importance As new threats and challenges to the national security arise, it requires designing effective methods to ensure it. This should be considered when the military-industrial complex is reformed.
Objectives The research analyzes the specifics of the military-industrial complex development in the USA and the EU, and outlines recommendations for Russia to consider global trends when reforming the military-industrial complex.
Methods Having analyzed new threats and challenges to the national security of Russia, we investigated the U.S. and EU practices of reforms of the military-industrial complex in accordance with the current circumstances.
Results Contemporary threats and challenges were proved to generate demand for new military and industrial products. We found they influenced the reforming of the military-industrial complex abroad, reviewed whether foreign experience in the military-industrial restructuring was applicable to Russia.
Conclusions and Relevance When reforming the military-industrial complex, Russia should consider new types of threats to the national security. It is important to take the U.S. and EU experience into consideration concerning the reforming of the military-industrial complex. Considering the specifics and development of Russia before it shifted to the market economy, the governance structure of the military-industrial complex should be thoroughly and attentively elaborated.


Economic and mathematical methods for analyzing trends in market processes and the formation of competitive environment in microelectronics

Varshavskii L.E. Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation ( hodvar@mail.ru )

Journal: National Interests: Priorities and Security, #3, 2016

Importance Whereas orders and finance for the science-intensive sector decreased in the 1990s and slowed down the sector's development, it became reasonable to formulate a strategy and overcome a lag in the sector.
Objectives The research devises economic and mathematical methods to analyze trends in market processes and form the competitive environment in microelectronics. I also examine how microelectronics develops nation-wide and abroad, analyze investment processes in leading microelectronic companies.
Methods I considered the nvestment processes using econometric methods. The feasibility of investment is examined on the Z-transform framework. I propose an approach to forming market structures in microelectronics, which is based on dynamic games.
Results I analyzed the main trends and drivers in economic development of microelectronics in Russia and abroad; examined the effect of changes in the feature size of semiconductor circuits on the output structure and economic dynamic properties of investment processes in leading companies; invented a Z-transform-based approach to determining the return on production investment based. The article presents mathematical tools for designing market structures, which involve a game-based approach and Z-transform.
Conclusions and Relevance The proposed economic and mathematical methods and models allow analyzing the investment processes in microelectronic markets and lay the basis for regulatory authorities to set up effective market structures. The results can be used to outline proposals for the structure of the domestic microelectronic market, government policies for encouraging the investment activities and anti-monopoly policies.


Improving performance indicators of the military-industrial complex by expanding the civil production

Varshavskii A.E. Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation ( varshav@cemi.rssi.ru )

Makarova Yu.A. Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation ( mak-yuliya@mail.ru )

Journal: National Interests: Priorities and Security, #7, 2018

Importance This study analyzes changes in performance indicators of the military-industrial complex through the expansion of civil high-tech production. The reasonable combination of military and civil production will enable defense enterprises and entire sector to increase their effectiveness.
Objectives We examine practices of the countries which attained the best results in diversifying the military-industrial production. We also evaluate how the civil production and respective output influence performance indicators of the military-industrial complex.
Methods Analyzing the most advanced countries’ expertise (USA among them), we study how the expansion of civil production influences performance indicators of the military-industrial complex.
Results Increased output in civil production is showed to influence and improve performance indicators of the military-industrial complex.
Conclusions and Relevance We prove that both expertise of the most advanced countries and Russian distinctions should be taken into account in order to successfully implement the production diversification program. As the analysis of the U.S. aerospace industry shows, an increase in civil production output contributes to performance indicators, thus providing the rationale for diversification of the Russian military-industrial complex. The military and industrial enterprises shall set up market-oriented manufacturing of civil products, majoring in high-tech lines. The civil production output will not increase without an appropriate industrial and protectionist policy focused on the priority development of domestic mechanical engineering.


Analyzing and modeling the demand and supply indicators for engineers and technical specialists

Varshavskii A.E. Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, RAS, Moscow, Russian Federation ( varshav@cemi.rssi.ru )

Kochetkova E.V. Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, RAS, Moscow, Russian Federation ( k.v.kochetkova@gmail.com )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #5, 2018

Importance The article addresses the analysis and modeling of the labor market of engineering and technical specialists and possibilities to estimate a potential imbalance of demand and supply in this category of personnel.
Objectives The purpose is to reveal factors affecting the demand for and supply of engineers and technical staff with the help of modeling, to develop and test closed models of the labor market of this category of specialists based on data for the USA and Russia.
Methods We employ an economic and statistical analysis, modeling, and cross-country comparisons.
Results We offer two types of closed models to analyze changes in the labor market of engineering and technical staff. Testing the models based on data for the USA enabled to develop their modifications for the Russian labor market of the said specialists. Using a more complicated model that considers the results obtained in our previous works, we performed the analysis of possible imbalance of demand and supply of engineering and technical specialists up to 2020.
Conclusions The results of modeling enable to estimate a possible imbalance of demand and supply of engineers and technical specialists till 2020. They show the need for improving the labor conditions, quality of engineering and technical education, systems of monitoring the demand for this category of specialists, and planning their training. In future, when modeling the labor market of engineering and technical specialists, it is crucial to pay attention to behavioral models of occupational choice, processes of deindustrialization and reindustrialization, outsourcing and offshoring.


A macroeconomic analysis of the USA medium term development

Varshavskii L.E. Central Economics and Mathematics Institute of RAS, Moscow, Russian Federation ( hodvar@mail.ru )

Journal: National Interests: Priorities and Security, #47, 2014

Importance Due to increased interconnection of the economic development of developed countries and the determining impact of the USA on the condition of global financial and commodity markets, I underline the relevance of research activities dealing with the analysis of development prospects of the USA economy.
     Objectives The article includes a macroeconomic analysis of the US economy development in the middle-term perspective. I have researched the main factors, which guide the US Federal Reserve System (the Fed) activities in working out its crisis recovery policy. The paper considers possible directions of the US economy innovation development. Special attention is paid to the measures aimed at stimulating the development of manufacturing industry, which is characterized by its declining role in the GDP, and which has not yet fully recovered from the 2008-2009 crises.
     Methods To analyze the prospects for the USA economy development, I have used the aggregated econometric middle-term macroeconomic model, which I have developed on the basis of the USA statistics data and which includes the following blocks: GDP growth rate assessment; evaluation of the unemployment level; inflation assessment. The analysis shows that despite the measures undertaken by the Federal Reserve System on rescuing the financial system and practically a zero refinancing rate, there is no increase in investment volumes required to ensure acceptable post-crisis economic growth rate. The program of repurchasing long-term bonds that has been undertaken by the Federal Reserve System since September 2012 has ensured a slight support to the economic growth and, most importantly, a reduction in unemployment rate. However, it has resulted in a sharp increase in the money supply, which entailed active speculation in the stock markets. As a consequence, the dynamics of stock indices has become explosive. I consider 3 scenarios of the US economy development: optimistic, medium, which bases on extrapolation of post-recession (current) trends, and pessimistic.
     Results The study bases on the aggregated monetary model and enables to conclude that the United States economy in the middle-term perspective is likely to have a relatively slow pace of economic growth.
     Conclusions and Relevance I underline an urgent need for involving the United States in major international projects, which will contribute to sustainable growth of not only American, but also the global economy, and will help easing of international tension.


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