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Role of the educational environment in increase of a level of activity of students

Serkov L.A. Cand. Sc. (Physics and Mathematics), assistant professor, Eurasian Institute of Management and Business , Ekaterinburg city ( kpkg94@mail.ru )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #7, 2010

In frameworks of the econometric approach the conclusion, consisting that the educational environment plays the major role in increase of a level of activity of students is proved. The level of activity is measured within the framework of pedagogical experiment. Are received regression models of influence of the educational environment on a level of activity of students.


Modeling of education self-organization

Serkov L.A. Cand. Sc. (Physics and Mathematics), assistant professor, Eurasian Institute of Management and Business , Ekaterinburg city ( kpkg94@mail.ru )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #11, 2009

The article deals with the environment and operation of education institutions being self-organizing systems based on the three-parameter model in case there is positive and negative feedback. The author shows that such feedbacks compromising stimulates self-organization in education systems. The analysis describes the terms of proper self-organization management by means of the system and environment forming a respective attracting finite-dimensional manifold i.e. an attractor.


Synergetic and econometric features of process of innovations diffusion

Serkov L.A. Cand. Sc. (Physics and Mathematics), assistant professor, Eurasian Institute of Management and Business , Ekaterinburg city ( kpkg94@mail.ru )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #1, 2010

In frameworks of the econometric approach the conclusion, consisting that multiplicate white noise induces laws of innovative process, characteristic for the phenomenon of the self-organized criticality is proved. This conclusion is received in frameworks of the synergetic approach to research of process of innovations diffusion. The role of the econometric analysis consists in detection of long memory in time series of the innovative activity.


Self-organization of expectations with bounded rationality as a mechanism for economic systems self-development

Serkov L.A. Ural Institute of Business, Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation ( dsge2012e@mail.ru )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #33, 2014

The article addresses various mechanisms of economic agents' expectations formation. The author considers the formation of expectations on the basis of adaptive learning as one of the mechanisms for continual self-organization of expectation of economic agents at the microeconomic level. The self-evolution of this process determines the evolution of the economic system. The neo-classical model studies this self-evolution as a process of convergence of expectations with bounded rationality to the rational expectations equilibrium. The author shows that the key factor influencing the convergence is price flexibility.


Analysis of application of the notion balanced economy and unbalanced economy, stable development and unstable development

Serkov L.A. Cand. Sc. (Physics and Mathematics), assistant professor, Eurasian Institute of Management and Business , Ekaterinburg city ( kpkg94@mail.ru )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #16, 2009

The article examines modification from the position of synergy of notions of balance and stability with regard to economic systems in comparison with their interpretation in the framework of neoclassic approach. More correct in the framework of synergy approach is application of terms quasi-equilibrium and quasi-stability and indication of time interval on which the system is analyzed. At the same time to appraise ranges of fluctuations of economic indicators perspective one is use of spline-technologies allowing obvious separation of cycles at phase portraits made on the basis of data about economic dynamics. Research of cyclic economic dynamics with the help of total factor production allows obvious interpretation of quasi-stability of economy at quality level.


Formation of expectations in models with heterogeneous agents and endogenous rate of time preferences

Serkov L.A. Ural Institute of Business, Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation ( dsge2012@mail.ru )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #21, 2015

Importance One of the drawbacks of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models (DSGE models) is the formation of expectations in these representative agent models with a constant rate of time preference. Therefore, it is relevant to consider the process of formation of expectations in models with heterogeneous agents and endogenous discount rate.
     Objectives The purpose of the work is to study the effect of endogenous rate of time preference on the dynamics of stochastic models with heterogeneous agents using the algorithm of formation of expectations associated with training the agents under the trail-and-error method.
     Methods Using the mathematical modeling, I investigated the effect of endogenous rate of time preference on the volatility of variables in a dynamic stochastic model with heterogeneous agents.
     Results The study delivered the results on decomposition of the variance of endogenous variables. Furthermore, I analyzed the convergence of the algorithm of expectations formation. The study shows that the availability of feedback for time preference rate reduces the volatility of variables under consideration. In addition, in models with endogenous rate of time preference, the convergence of the algorithm of expectations formation is much higher than the rate of convergence of the algorithm in models with a constant rate of time preference.
     Conclusions and Relevance The findings may be of interest to those involved in the analysis of large-scale DSGE models, which are one of the basic tools of macroeconomic analysis. The conclusion on the mechanism of expectations formation in models with heterogeneous agents may be useful for the econometric analysis of economic systems.


Modeling the search for tolerant-to-uncertainty monetary and fiscal policies under their interaction

Serkov L.A. Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation ( dsge2012@mail.ru )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #10, 2017

Importance Searching for fiscal and monetary policies that tolerate uncertainty and do not lead to negative implications under any possible distortion of economic model's specifications is particularly relevant in dynamic model development. The article explores the effect of the degree of interaction between the central bank and the government on policy stability, using a neo-Keynesian model.
Objectives The aims are to analyze fiscal and monetary policies from the perspective of their robustness to non-structural uncertainties under interactions between monetary and fiscal authorities when developing both a commitment-based policy and a discretionary policy; to provide recommendations for designing a policy that would be tolerant to non-structural uncertainties.
Methods The study employs economic and mathematical methods and computer simulation techniques.
Results I found that a coordinated interaction between fiscal and monetary authorities when developing both a commitment-based policy and a discretionary policy is effective only when the central bank has greater bargaining power. This is true for a model with the worst-case scenario and for a model with tolerant-to-uncertainty policy. For a regime with commitments, the increasing domination of the government results in the distortion of the response of government spending to inflation shock. Under a discretionary policy, the increasing domination of the government in interactions with the central bank reduces the role of distortions introduced to the standard model.
Conclusions The findings on developing a policy that is tolerant to non-structural uncertainties should be considered in the analysis of monetary and fiscal policies in macroeconomic dynamic models.


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