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Modeling the Default Probability of the Russian Banks

Radionova M.V. National Research University Higher School of Economics, Perm, Russian Federation ( m.radionova@rambler.ru )

Pristupina Yu.V. IVS Group, Perm, Russian Federation ( juliaprist@gmail.com )

Journal: Digest Finance, #2, 2017

Importance The article focuses on modeling of the default probability of the Russian commercial banks. The research reviews two categories of the Russian commercial banks, i.e. those with their licenses recalled by the Central Bank of Russia within August 2013 through May 2016 and the banks that are still in operation. We investigate the reliability and sustainability of credit institutions, and factors that fuel the default.
Objectives The research builds up an econometric model for evaluating the probability of banks' default in line with the specifics of the Russian market.
Methods Logistic regression is used to determine whether bankruptcy is probable, since it considers figures of financial statements and some institutional factors. The information framework comprises quarterly reports of the Russian commercial banks, which subsequently went bankrupt.
Results The article outlines trends in the contemporary banking system, shows key stages of setting up a model for evaluating the probability of the Russian commercial banks' default. Based on properties of the model, we conclude that it is of high quality in terms of statistical significance and economic substance.
Conclusions and Relevance The findings can prove useful for researchers who study bankruptcy of credit institutions, and banks' management. The model can be also practiced by banking oversight agencies of the Russian Federations for purposes of remote monitoring, and companies, which are choosing the bank for servicing their accounts. The simplicity and understandability of data allow analyzing banks from perspectives of their would-be customers.


Modeling the probability of default of Russian banks

Radionova M.V. National Research University Higher School of Economics, Perm, Russian Federation ( m.radionova@rambler.ru )

Pristupina Yu.V. IVS Group, Perm, Russian Federation ( juliaprist@gmail.com )

Journal: Financial Analytics: Science and Experience, #2, 2017

Importance The article focuses on modeling of the default probability of the Russian commercial banks. The research reviews two categories of the Russian commercial banks, i.e. those ones with their licenses recalled by the Central Bank of Russia within August 2013 through May 2016 and the banks that are still in operation. We investigate the reliability and sustainability of credit institutions, and factor that fuel the default.
Objectives The research builds up an econometric model for evaluating the probability of banks’ default in line with the specifics of the Russian market.
Methods Logistic regression is used to determine whether bankruptcy is possible, since it considers figures of financial statements and some institutional factors. The information framework comprises quarterly reports of the Russian commercial banks, which subsequently went bankrupt.
Results The article outlines trends in the contemporary banking system, shows key stages of setting up a model for evaluating the probability of the Russian commercial banks’ default. Based on properties of the model, we made a conclusion that it was of high quality in terms of statistical significance and economic substance.
Conclusions and Relevance The findings can prove useful for researches who study bankruptcy of credit institutions, and banks' management. The model can be also practiced by banking oversight agencies of the Russian Federations for purposes of remote monitoring, and companies, which are choosing the bank for servicing their accounts. The simplicity and understandability of data allow analyzing banks from perspectives of its would-be customers.


Modeling of mutual commodity trade between countries (a case study of the Eurasian Economic Union member States per industry)

Radionova M.V. National Research University Higher School of Economics, Perm, Russian Federation ( m.radionova@rambler.ru )

Kulakova A.M. Prognoz ZAO, Perm, Russian Federation ( kulakova@prognoz.ru )

Journal: Financial Analytics: Science and Experience, #34, 2015

Importance Studying the reasons for international trade and implications of its changes gains momentum in the contemporary economic science, since it is important to understand those aspects of trade relations in order to take appropriate decisions that may influence any economy and the global economy as a whole.
     Objectives The research pursues making up and evaluating an econometric model intended to identify key meaningful relations between factors that influence trade. The research relies upon data on mutual exchange of commodities within the Eurasian Economic Union.
     Methods
To attain the objective, we evaluated a panel fixed-effects regression model on the basis of data on mutual trade of the EEU member countries per industry. Based on the parameters of the model, we could make a conclusion on its high quality in terms of statistical and economic significance.
     Results We examined the existing approaches to mutual trade modeling and hypothesized on factors that influenced the volume of mutual trade and the nature of this effect. We considered volumes of production and aggregate consumption, average weighted prices of the exporter, importer and worldwide. The article presents a format of the EEU mutual trade model. The parameters of the model are evaluated against real data per industry and the panel fixed-effects regression model.
     Conclusions and Relevance The research brings practical value as the proposed model can be tested in operations of any international organization, further developed and result in comprehensive evaluation of implications of integration processes in the Eurasian economic space.


Strategy of creating of territorial cluster spaceport "Vostochny":innovation and investment aspect

Radionov N.V. Doctor of Economics, Professor of department "Onboard Electric Power Systems and Aircraft", the St. Petersburg Military Space Academy named after A.F.Mozhaiski ( radionov_nv@mail.ru )

Radionova S.P. PhD in Economics, Associate Professor of department "Finance and Credit", the St. Petersburg State University of Service and Economics ( radionov_nv@mail.ru )

Fadeev A.S. PhD of Technical Sciences, General Director, the Center for Ground-Based Space Infrastructure Facilities Operation ( tsenki@roscosmos.ru )

Journal: National interests: priorities and security, #1, 2013

In the article topical issues of development of strategy of creation of the organizational and economic mechanism of management by formation of shape of objects of "Vostochny" spaceport, the organization of works on its creation and operation at limited financial resources are considered. The new solution of a problem of technical and economic optimization of management by creation of a territorial cluster of "Vostochny" spaceport according to cooperation of branch and territorial structures is proposed. The basis of the formulation and method of solving this problem is options strategy at the meso-level


Selection of mechanisms for management of the development of regional economy in the conditions of social and economic instability and financial constraints

Radionova S.P. Saint-Petersburg State University of Economics (UNECON), St. Petersburg, Russian Federation ( spradionova@mail.ru )

Journal: Regional Economics: Theory and Pactice, #6, 2017

Subject The article deals with the organizational and economic relations, environment, institutional and social conditions, factors and mechanisms of regional economic management system in modern market conditions.
Objectives The article aims to find and select the appropriate mechanisms to manage the development of regional economy in the conditions of social and economic instability and financial restrictions.
Methods For the study, I used systems and logical analyses, and synthesis of various aspects of the regional economy management.
Results A scientific abstract analysis of the reforms helps identify and determine a structural framework and significant growth and development points of the economy, as well as determine the system points of human development, and identify the space of objectification that is necessary for development of a civil society.
Conclusions The mechanism of management of the regional economy's development should take into account the systemic changes in the economy and society, including the determination of the vector of development based on cognitive models and synergistic effects, and also affect the total efficiency of reforms through the acceleration of the reform process and activating the processes of social solidarity.


Setting up a financial mechanism for corporate development during the adaptation of the Russian economy to a new technological mode

Radionova S.P. Saint Petersburg State University of Economics, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation ( spradionova@mail.ru )

Journal: National interests: priorities and security, #8, 2017

Importance The article reviews the corporate finance governance in adapting to new conditions of the socio-economic environment.
Objectives The research forms a financial mechanism for corporate governance that would streamline the adaptation to a new technological mode in the financial and economic instability.
Methods The research relies upon a systems and logic analysis of various aspects of corporate finance governance.
Results I examine the financial mechanism for corporate development in the dialectical unity with the financial mechanism of management. I review key steps of a comprehensive analysis of financial and business operations to determine the functionality of the financial system. I provide the rationale for a dynamic structural unit – the financial design sector. The article also analyzes issues of corporate governance that are common for SME during organizational changes and innovation. I propose methods for vector-oriented optimization of investment projects for SME in line with available software. The article presents a conditional and conceptual model of the financial system, formalizes it and points out financial criteria based on discounted cash flows.
Conclusions and Relevance Considering the adoption of a new technological mode, entities should articulate competition strategies, using a comprehensive approach and individual development paths. The financial mechanism for development grows more important as it bolsters such production factors as knowledge, organization, information. The unstable market situation and financial restrictions make entities use their economic capabilities and software to support innovative and investing activities.


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