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An approach to identify factors of migration processes formation in Russian regions

Nizamutdinov M.M. Institute of Socio-Economic Research, Ufa Science Centre of RAS, Ufa, Republic of Bashkortostan, Russian Federation ( marsel_n@mail.ru )

Oreshnikov V.V. Institute of Socio-Economic Research, Ufa Science Centre of RAS, Ufa, Republic of Bashkortostan, Russian Federation ( voresh@mail.ru )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #5, 2018

Importance The article addresses the processes of spatial mobility of the population in Russian regions and the influence of various socio-economic factors on them.
Objectives The aim is to determine the combination of socio-economic factors impacting significantly on the direction and intensity of migration processes in Russian regions.
Methods We performed a statistical analysis to reveal the correlation between indicators, characterizing the trends in migration processes, and the socio-economic development of Russian regions (more than 100 indicators). The study draws on methods of structural analysis, dynamics analysis, methods of economic and mathematical modeling.
Results We prepared a list consisting of 24 indicators. Based on their standardized values, we offer an algorithm to define integrated indicators that consider a variety of parameters.
Conclusions The results of the study can be used for decision-making in the sphere of regional development management in the Russian Federation, the population policy in particular.


Analyzing and assessing the interaction of parameters of demographic and economic development of regions and cities: The Volga Federal District case

Fattakhov R.V. Financial University under Government of Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation ( fattakhov@mail.ru )

Abdulova L.R. Institute for Socioeconomic Studies, Ufa Scientific Centre of Russian Academy of Sciences, Ufa, Russian Federation ( leanaf@mail.ru )

Oreshnikov V.V. Institute for Socioeconomic Studies, Ufa Scientific Centre of Russian Academy of Sciences, Ufa, Russian Federation ( voresh@mail.ru )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #2, 2016

Subject The article addresses the impact of economic and demographic factors on the urban settlement system formation in the Volga Federal District of the Russian Federation.
Objectives The purpose of the research is to analyze the assessment of mutual influence of demographic potential and economic development factors at the regional level.
Methods The research tools include the systems analysis, statistical methods, structural, dynamic, correlation and regression analyses, as well as classification and ranking methods. The official data of the Federal State Statistics Service, papers of Russian scientists and our works on the subject served as an information database of the research.
Results We offer a set of indicators to assess the urban development of the Russian Federation. The indicators take into account the economic potential of urban development and socio-demographic trends, and form a basis to assess the behavior of indicators of large cities development in the Volga Federal District over 2002–2013. Based on the integral estimates, we rank the cities. The ranking enables to determine the growth zones of the territory.
Conclusions and Relevance The study reveals uniform density of cities in the Volga Federal District and increasing contrast of settlement against the background of advancing growth of the largest cities. When working out the demographic policy, governmental authorities need to comprehensively assess the factors of this sphere's interdependence with economic processes.


Modeling and scenario forecasting of territorial system development at the municipal level: Methodological and practical considerations

Nizamutdinov M.M. Institute of Socio-Economic Research, Ufa Science Centre of RAS, Ufa, Republic of Bashkortostan, Russian Federation ( marsel_n@mail.ru )

Oreshnikov V.V. Institute of Socio-Economic Research, Ufa Science Centre of RAS, Ufa, Republic of Bashkortostan, Russian Federation ( voresh@mail.ru )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #7, 2017

Subject The article considers forecast generation of municipality's socio-economic development on the case of Oktyabrsky town, Republic of Bashkortostan.
Objectives The aim of the research is to underpin key parameters of medium-term and long-term forecasts of town development as a complex system operating in unstable macroeconomic environment.
Methods The forecast generation relies on complexity and consistency requirements that can be realized through the use of economic and mathematical methods and models. The developed models enable to quantitatively rationalize basic parameters of social and economic development and assess the implications of measures taken at the State and municipal level and the influence of environmental factors. To take into account uncertainty and probabilistic nature of changes in the parameters of the economic system as well as other related risks, we consider three scenarios of socio-economic development of Oktyabrsky.
Results The study shows that socio-economic development of municipalities depends largely on external factors. According to model calculations, Oktyabrsky has a solid base for future development. However, unfavorable macroeconomic conditions and internal risks associated with the development may cause economic stagnation. The baseline scenario seems the most probable in the current circumstances, and differences between the scenarios to a greater extent appear in the longer term.
Conclusions and Relevance Further development and application of economic and mathematical modeling in forecasting and planning at the municipal level may not only improve the forecast accuracy but also ensure efficient State and municipal management.


Forecasting the development of socio-economic systems at the municipal level using modeling tools (the Ufa city case study)

Fattakhov R.V. Financial University under Government of Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation ( fattakhov@mail.ru )

Oreshnikov V.V. Institute of Socio-Economic Research, Ufa Science Centre of RAS, Ufa, Republic of Bashkortostan, Russian Federation ( VOresh@mail.ru )

Journal: Regional Economics: Theory and Practice, #13, 2015

Importance The article covers the problems of management of socio-economic systems at the municipal level. A complex of problems, available in this field, requires the introduction of modern methods of forecasting and planning for municipal development. A promising direction is the application of economic-mathematical models, to provide science-based assessment of the options for the medium term.
     Objectives The purpose of the study is the development of an economic-mathematical model of municipality. To achieve the goal, it is necessary to define the general principles of modeling based on the characteristics of the studied object, to develop a method of scenario parameters that affect the development of the municipal system, to specify factor dependency ratios and balance sheet models, as well as to set a range of indicative figures. The object of study is the municipal social and economic system; the subject of study is the social and economic processes and mechanisms of functioning and interaction of actors at the municipal level.
     Methods As the research tools, we used methods of economic-mathematical modeling, statistical, structural and dynamic analyses, and the correlation and regression analyses of the parameters of municipalities’ development.
     Results As a result, we have formed and tested a model of municipal formation, obtained quantitative indicators of development for the selected scenarios. The calculations based on the data of the Ufa City District, showed a relative preference for the investment-oriented model of development; the positive trends and the results of this strategy are most apparent in the medium to long term.
     Relevance The use of such tools in management practices will increase the efficiency of decision-making, ensure the validity of predictions and, in general, will have a positive impact on the formation of the municipal management in the Russian Federation.


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