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An approach to identify factors of migration processes formation in Russian regions

Nizamutdinov M.M. Institute of Socio-Economic Research, Ufa Science Centre of RAS, Ufa, Republic of Bashkortostan, Russian Federation ( marsel_n@mail.ru )

Oreshnikov V.V. Institute of Socio-Economic Research, Ufa Science Centre of RAS, Ufa, Republic of Bashkortostan, Russian Federation ( voresh@mail.ru )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #5, 2018

Importance The article addresses the processes of spatial mobility of the population in Russian regions and the influence of various socio-economic factors on them.
Objectives The aim is to determine the combination of socio-economic factors impacting significantly on the direction and intensity of migration processes in Russian regions.
Methods We performed a statistical analysis to reveal the correlation between indicators, characterizing the trends in migration processes, and the socio-economic development of Russian regions (more than 100 indicators). The study draws on methods of structural analysis, dynamics analysis, methods of economic and mathematical modeling.
Results We prepared a list consisting of 24 indicators. Based on their standardized values, we offer an algorithm to define integrated indicators that consider a variety of parameters.
Conclusions The results of the study can be used for decision-making in the sphere of regional development management in the Russian Federation, the population policy in particular.


Modeling and scenario forecasting of territorial system development at the municipal level: Methodological and practical considerations

Nizamutdinov M.M. Institute of Socio-Economic Research, Ufa Science Centre of RAS, Ufa, Republic of Bashkortostan, Russian Federation ( marsel_n@mail.ru )

Oreshnikov V.V. Institute of Socio-Economic Research, Ufa Science Centre of RAS, Ufa, Republic of Bashkortostan, Russian Federation ( voresh@mail.ru )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #7, 2017

Subject The article considers forecast generation of municipality's socio-economic development on the case of Oktyabrsky town, Republic of Bashkortostan.
Objectives The aim of the research is to underpin key parameters of medium-term and long-term forecasts of town development as a complex system operating in unstable macroeconomic environment.
Methods The forecast generation relies on complexity and consistency requirements that can be realized through the use of economic and mathematical methods and models. The developed models enable to quantitatively rationalize basic parameters of social and economic development and assess the implications of measures taken at the State and municipal level and the influence of environmental factors. To take into account uncertainty and probabilistic nature of changes in the parameters of the economic system as well as other related risks, we consider three scenarios of socio-economic development of Oktyabrsky.
Results The study shows that socio-economic development of municipalities depends largely on external factors. According to model calculations, Oktyabrsky has a solid base for future development. However, unfavorable macroeconomic conditions and internal risks associated with the development may cause economic stagnation. The baseline scenario seems the most probable in the current circumstances, and differences between the scenarios to a greater extent appear in the longer term.
Conclusions and Relevance Further development and application of economic and mathematical modeling in forecasting and planning at the municipal level may not only improve the forecast accuracy but also ensure efficient State and municipal management.


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