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Econometric modeling of investment from profit in Russian economy

Mitsek S.A. doctor of economic sciences, dean of faculty of business and management of the Humanitarian University of Yekaterinburg ( mitsek@mail.ur.ru )

Mitsek E.B. candidate of economic sciences, chief of board of Management and Marketing, Faculty of Business and Management, Liberal Arts University in Yekaterinburg, Russia ( mitsek@mail.ur.ru )

Journal: Finance and Credit, #34, 2009

Authors suggest an optimization model of investment in fixed assets from profit and make econometric estimates of this parameter. These estimated showed that investment depends sufficiently from net profit and from marginal revenue of capital. The latter depends strongly from price index of Russian export.


Investment, productivity and incomes in Russian regions

Mitsek S.A. doctor of economic sciences, dean of faculty of business and management of the Humanitarian University of Yekaterinburg ( mitsek@mail.ur.ru )

Mitsek E.B. candidate of economic sciences, chief of board of Management and Marketing, Faculty of Business and Management, Liberal Arts University in Yekaterinburg, Russia ( mitsek@mail.ur.ru )

Journal: Regional Economics: Theory and Practice, #36, 2009

The authors estimate econometric equation where regressors are factors that have influence on the income per capita in Russian regions. The equation shows that the strongest factors are capital intensity of labor, labor and capital productivity and a share of employed in the total population. The share of export in GRP and a share of employees with higher education also have influence on income levels.


Regional Analysis of Investments to Basic Capital of Russia

Mitsek S.A. doctor of economic sciences, dean of faculty of business and management of the Humanitarian University of Yekaterinburg ( mitsek@mail.ur.ru )

Mitsek Ye.B. Candidate of Economics, Humanitarian University, Yekaterinburg ( mitsek@mail.ur.ru )

Journal: Regional Economics: Theory and Practice, #4, 2009

The article provides economical analysis of investments to the Russian basic capital, using the methods of econometric modelling. On this basis the authors come ot several conclusions on major factors defining the basic capital dynamics, including the law tendency to net profit investments, law tendency to ammortization investments, the federal tax burden, the inefficient invesmtents structure based on the state budget and poor condition of the Russian financial market.


Econometric modeling of investment in foxed assets from bank credits in Russia

Mitsek S.A. doctor of economic sciences, dean of faculty of business and management of the Humanitarian University of Yekaterinburg ( mitsek@mail.ur.ru )

Mitsek E.B. candidate of economic sciences, chief of board of Management and Marketing, Faculty of Business and Management, Liberal Arts University in Yekaterinburg, Russia ( mitsek@mail.ur.ru )

Journal: Finance and Credit, #23, 2010

The authors fulfill econometric modeling of investment in fixed assets from bank credits in Russia. Besides the equation that characterizes the dependence of investment from bank credits and marginal revenue on capital they estimated regressions of bank credits on deposits and other variables. Finally the equation of bank deposits from GDP and net profit of organizations was estimated. The model helps to analyze the dynamics of investment and bank credits in Russia in recent years.


Mid-term forecast of investment in foxed assets in Russia by means of econometric model

Mitsek S.A. doctor of economic sciences, dean of faculty of business and management of the Humanitarian University of Yekaterinburg ( mitsek@mail.ur.ru )

Mitsek E.B. candidate of economic sciences, chief of board of Management and Marketing, Faculty of Business and Management, Liberal Arts University in Yekaterinburg, Russia ( mitsek@mail.ur.ru )

Journal: Finance and Credit, #40, 2010

Authors worked out an econometric model that links the major macroeconomic variables and use it to make a mid-term forecast of investment in fixed assets. They analyze different forecasting variants with decrease of export prices, tax increase and aggressive monetary policy, ant others. The forecasting shows that export prices have a strong influence on Russian economy, and tax increase declines an economic growth with crowding out of private investment by the government one.


Econometric estimates, indexes and rank correlations in the analysis of investments in Russian regions

Mitsek S.A. doctor of economic sciences, dean of faculty of business and management of the Humanitarian University of Yekaterinburg ( mitsek@mail.ur.ru )

Mitsek E.B. candidate of economic sciences, chief of board of Management and Marketing, Faculty of Business and Management, Liberal Arts University in Yekaterinburg, Russia ( mitsek@mail.ur.ru )

Journal: Finance and Credit, #12, 2010

In the article there were used the panel data for Russian regions for 2004-2006 and estimated econometric equation of average efficiency of fixed assets on different factors. The sufficient were three technological variables (scientific expenditures, number of patents and number of personal computers) and a share of export in gross regional product. This result was used to calculate several indexes for each region: technological, export, dynamic, indexes of total factor productivity, capital intensity and efficiency and household incomes.
     The authors estimated a matrix of rank correlations between all these indexes that helps to make recommendations about investment and economic policy in regions.


Savings, investments and model of economic growth with stocks

Mitsek S.A. Doctor of Economics, Professor of department "Finance and Credit", The University of Humanities, Yekaterinburg ( mitsek@mail.ur.ru )

Mitsek E.B. Doctor of Economics, Professor of department"Management and Marketing" The University of Humanities, Yekaterinburg ( emitsek@mail.ru )

Journal: Finance and Credit, #47, 2012

In the article it is noted that usually in models of economic growth of savings and an investment into fixed capital but these sizes aren't equal among themselves. The model of growth of economy in which the gap between savings and the investments, representing dynamics of stocks is provided is formulated. The imitating calculations which have been carried out on the basis of model, show that the economy with such properties reaches a steady state, and that in it, unlike traditional models, growth of tendency to consumption increases investments.


Econometric and statistical estimates of industrial and regional structural change in economy of the Russian Federation

Mitsek S.A. Doctor of Economics, Professor, the Department of Finance and Credit, the Humanitarian University, Yekaterinburg ( mitsek@mail.ur.ru )

Mitsek E.B. Doctor of Economics, Professor, the Department of Management and Marketing the Humanitarian University, Yekaterinburg ( emitsek@mail.ru )

Journal: Finance and Credit, #1, 2014

The paper analyzes industrial, regional and income structural changes in Russian Federation. The authors calculate the prices' and production indexes that underlie changes in industrial structure. These calculations show that some industries (such as government services and healthcare) increased their share in the GDP solely due to prices' factors, some other (financial services) due to rapid production growth. Some trends of structural change in Russian economy are typical to other countries also (decreasing share of manufacturing and agriculture and increasing that of services), some other are Russian specific (lagging of mining in spite of high world prices for raw materials and abnormal increase of government services).


Foreign liabilities, monetary and credit policy and ways out of crisis of Russian economy

Mitsek S.A. doctor of economic sciences, dean of faculty of business and management of the Humanitarian University of Yekaterinburg ( mitsek@mail.ur.ru )

Journal: Financial Analytics: Science and Experience, #2, 2009

In the article the author considers prerequisites to crisis in economy of Russia and its main indicators. The author suggests measures that in his opinion will promote to crisis overcoming.


Economic growth, inflation, investments and incomes in the Russian Federation: Econometric model-based analysis and forecast

Mitsek S.A. Liberal Arts University, Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation ( sergey.mitsek@gmail.com )

Mitsek E.B. Liberal Arts University, Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation ( emitsek@mail.ru )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #1, 2018

Importance The article describes findings based on the new version of our econometric model, designed to analyze current trends in the Russian economy and determinants of its development, and to forecast its behavior pattern for the coming years.
Objectives Our purpose is to show the influence of various factors on the main macroeconomic variables under different scenarios of external economic situation and options of monetary and fiscal policy in the Russian Federation.
Methods Using the econometric model, we analyzed current trends in economic development and revealed factors impacting the macroeconomic indicators and economic growth of Russia's economy.
Results The model shows that if the present trend in exogenous variables continues, the economic growth in Russia in 2018–2019 will become negative. However, loosening the monetary policy and curbing the growth of public procurement deflator will be favorable for investments in fixed assets and the economic growth.
Conclusions The model demonstrates a relative weakening of external economic factors' influence on the Russian economy. It remains strongly dependent on demographic factors. Major problems of the Russian economy include stagnation of total factor productivity and insufficient level of investment in fixed assets.


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