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Macroeconomic assessment of consequences arising from the threat of long-term shortage of energy

Mazurova O.V. Melentiev Energy Systems Institute of Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk, Russian Federation ( ol.mazurova@yandex.ru )

Journal: National Interests: Priorities and Security, #6, 2017

Importance The article focuses on the threat of possible shortage of energy to the country as one of the main strategic threats to the national energy security.
Objectives The research investigates the adverse effect of energy shortage arising from that the power engineering development lags behind needs of the economy. I also assess the probable macroeconomic effect.
Methods The research involved formalized methods and economic and mathematical models.
Results The article assesses the macroeconomic damage of the energy shortage under the given economic circumstances and the national power engineering within 2025–2030. I should note such assessment is conditional, since it primarily depends on predetermined scenarios and conditions for the development of the economy and power engineering.
Conclusions and Relevance The increasing shortage of energy may have a significant effect, thus stifling the economic development and reducing production volumes in all sectors. Macroeconomic consequences of the long-term shortage of energy do not demonstrate a non-linear growth. The research proves such assessment is necessary to increase the reliability and uninterrupted power supply in the long run.


Assessment of the competitiveness of automotive fuels, taking into account regional characteristics and initial data vagueness

Mazurova O.V. Melentiev Energy Systems Institute of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk, Russian Federation ( ol.mazurova@yandex.ru )

Journal: Regional Economics: Theory and Practice, #1, 2016

Importance The article deals with the forecasting studies according to demand and prices of automotive fuels in the region, taking into account the comparative effectiveness of the use of traditional and alternative motor fuels and the increasing initial data vagueness.
Objectives The article aims to evaluate the effectiveness of demand for motor fuel in the region depending on the changes in fuel prices, energy competition, road transport technologies change, the share of alternative fuels in the regional market, baseline data uncertainty, region specifics.
Methods For the study, I used Monte-Carlo methods based on combining the assessment of price elasticity of demand for energy resources with optimization of energy and fuel supply in the region.
Results I present the results of the multivariate calculations and projections obtained of price according to the demand for motor fuels for freight transport in macro-regions of the Russian Federation in terms of energy and fuel supply for the period 2020–2025.
Conclusions and Relevance The quantitative results indicate the workability of the proposed approach and confirm the dependence of projected demand for motor fuels for heavy vehicles both on the price range of possible-to-use fuels in the region and probability distribution of distinct values within the range. The proposed tools expand the analytical capabilities of currently used methods of predictive studies of the conditions (demand and prices) in regional energy markets and price elasticity of demand for fuel, and increase the validity of long-term projections for development of the fuel and energy complex of the country and regions.


Lack of investment as a strategic threat to Russia's energy security

Loktionov V.I. Melentiev Energy Systems Institute of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk, Russian Federation ( vadlok@mail.ru )

Mazurova O.V. Melentiev Energy Systems Institute of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk, Russian Federation ( ol.mazurova@yandex.ru )

Journal: National Interests: Priorities and Security, #7, 2018

Importance Insufficient investment resources entail negative implications for the national economy. Scarce finance of the national power engineering is one of such issues. It may hinder the pace of energy capacity renewal and cause a lack of energy, which will undermine the national energy security.
Objectives The research is an attempt to develop the theory and practice of evaluating strategic threats to Russia’s energy security.
Methods The research relies upon general scientific methods of analysis and synthesis, formalized methods for modeling the operation of energy systems. As part of the research, we applied the macroeconomic model designed by the Melentiev Energy Systems Institute, which describes dynamic relationship among twenty five sectors of the economy.
Results We unravel the mechanism reflecting the way a lack of investment influences the national energy security, quantify macroeconomic implications caused by a 5–15 percent decrease in investment. We also analyzed consequences of energy supply cuts due to insufficient investment in the energy and fuel sector.
Conclusions and Relevance A lack of investment poses a serious strategic threat to the national energy security. Therefore, to prevent such insufficiency of energy resources at the national level, it is necessary to undertake measures for encouraging investment in the economy and power engineering by improving the investment climate.


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