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Mathematical modeling of a cyclical trend in the investment and construction sphere of the Russian Federation under innovative transformations

Geras'kina I.N. Saint-Petersburg State University of Architecture and Civil Engineering, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation ( Geraskina82@mail.ru )

Kudryavtsev A.Yu. AO All-Russian Scientific Research Institute of Radio Engineering, Moscow, Russian Federation ( kudral@inbox.ru )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #11, 2017

Importance At the present stage of its development, the economic science requires timely and qualitative forecasting of economic system's crisis. The article considers new approaches to studying the trends in and management of complex systems, taking into account the natural behavior and properties identified in the process of economic and mathematical modeling.
Objectives The purpose of the study is to devise a mathematical model describing the cyclical development of the Russian investment and construction sector for qualitative forecasts and support to management decisions.
Methods We apply the analysis of the phase space to identify the existing attractors of the economic system, transition between them, and conditions facilitating a switch from one state to another. The phase curve provides a visual representation of the trend in economic system's development, which is essential for making strategic decisions based on economic-mathematical modeling.
Results We have developed a user-friendly economic and mathematical model. It enables to use statistical data and describe cyclic and transition processes; to qualitatively predict the value of a new cycle of the Russian investment and construction sector; to identify the sensitivity of parameters of the order to the dynamics of governing variables, the bifurcation state and behavior of the object under certain managerial influence.
Conclusions Approximation of statistical data, analysis of phase curves of resulting variables helped obtain a mathematical model of cyclic development of the economic system under consideration.


Development of non-agricultural activities in rural areas of the industrial and agricultural region

Pavlov A.Yu. Penza State Technological University, Penza, Russian Federation ( pavlov_85@bk.ru )

Kudryavtsev A.A. Penza State Technological University, Penza, Russian Federation ( kudryavcev_a@inbox.ru )

Karmyshova Yu.V. Penza State Technological University, Zarechny, Penza Region, Russian Federation ( k-arm@yandex.ru )

Journal: Regional Economics: Theory and Pactice, #2, 2015

Importance The article deals with the outflow of the most active part of the rural population in the city, as is the case for almost all industrial and agricultural areas of the Russian Federation. The diversification of the rural economy, on the basis of non-agricultural activities, will help overcome the negative tendencies in the development of these territories, including the lack of adequately paying jobs.
     Objectives The purpose of the study is the development of alternative employment for the well-being of rural residents by creating new jobs and maintaining the existing ones.
     Methods For the analysis, we used economic-statistical methods. We have analyzed various aspects of the development of non-agricultural activities in rural areas of the industrial and agricultural region and identified the most effective directions of economic diversification for the municipal districts of the Penza region.
     Results We are proposing a selective approach to encourage the development of non-agricultural activities in individual municipal areas of the region, taking into account local characteristics. As a priority area for diversification of the rural economy for all districts of the Penza region, we offer domestic and social-cultural services that will attract young people to rural areas, and will contribute to the development of rural tourism, increase entrepreneurial activity and improve the sustainability of rural areas.
     Conclusions and Relevance We concluded that the rural entrepreneurs need not only subsidized loans, but State support as well, which will help them acquire the equipment for drying, freezing and storage of fruits, berries, mushrooms and medicinal plants. The Government support should also be available to organizations and businesses not related to categories of agricultural producers.


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