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Economic development of Russia and Russian world when facing the world's centers of power

Krasil'nikov O.Yu. Saratov State University named after N.G. Chernyshevsky, Saratov, Russian Federation ( ok-russia@yandex.ru )

Krasil'nikova E.V. Stolypin Volga Region Institute of Administration, Branch of Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Saratov, Russian Federation ( ok-russia@yandex.ru )

Journal: National interests: priorities and security, #27, 2014

In the context of globalization competition between individual countries and regions of the world intensifies. The authors consider the place of Russia and the Russian world when facing the global centers of power, emerging threat, the strategy of confrontation to expansionist behavior and possible situation development scenarios. There are four main centers of power: the United States, the European Union, China, and the "Eastern belt" of the Muslim states. The Russia's potential is measured from the different sides: the geographic, demographic and economic ones. The authors make conclusion about the necessity to elaborate a comprehensive competitive strategy of economic development of Russia and the Russian world in the medium- and long- term perspectives.


Social modernization of the Ulyanovsk oblast

Filippova I.A. Ulyanovsk State Technical University, Ulyanovsk, Russian Federation ( fia282@mail.ru )

Krasil’nikova E.E. Ulyanovsk State Technical University, Ulyanovsk, Russian Federation ( studentulstu@mail.ru )

Journal: Regional Economics: Theory and Pactice, #46, 2015

Importance The article covers the issues of social modernization of the Ulyanovsk oblast.
     Objectives The paper identifies the areas of efficient use of human capital in the Ulyanovsk oblast.
     Methods The study is based on statistics for 2012–2014.
     Results We identified the directions of effective use of human capital: updating the material and technical base of healthcare, pre-school, supplementary, and general education institutions.
     Conclusions and Relevance Modernization of the social sphere is one of the key measures to stimulate economic growth of the region.


Import substitution prospects for the Agricultural-Industrial Complex: points of growth and stagnation

Filippova I.A. Ulyanovsk State Technical University, Ulyanovsk, Russian Federation ( fia282@mail.ru )

Krasil'nikova E.E. Ulyanovsk State Technical University, Ulyanovsk, Russian Federation ( studentulstu@mail.ru )

Journal: National interests: priorities and security, #4, 2017

Importance The article analyzes trends in export/import of food and industrial products, methods to unleash economic growth through the import substitution policy, and impediments.
Objectives The research examines mechanisms for effective import substitution in the AIC and industrial sector, determines points of growth and stagnation and impediments to Russia’s independence from imported goods.
Methods The article represents qualitative comparative analysis of export and import trends in the AIC and industrial sector, and industrial dependence since 2000.
Results The research provides the rationale for a definitely export-based model of economic growth. We analyzed the current real sector of economy, illustrating the AIC and industrial sector, identified the sectors that depended on import, and impediments to import substitution processes.
Conclusions and Relevance The import substitution concept in Russia will be successfully implemented and the goals will be reached, if enterprises’ working assets are largely and deeply upgraded, business pursues an innovative development path and the State stimulates their investing activities.


The innovative and import-substitution cluster in the contemporary economy of Russia

Filippova I.A. Ulyanovsk State Technical University, Ulyanovsk, Russian Federation ( fia282@mail.ru )

Krasil'nikova E.E. Ulyanovsk State Technical University, Ulyanovsk, Russian Federation ( studentulstu@mail.ru )

Journal: National interests: priorities and security, #7, 2017

Importance In this article, we discuss advantages and provide the rationale for an innovative and import substitution cluster to be set up in Russia so to boost the innovative potential of the real sector of the economy.
Objectives The research provides a profound insight into mechanisms for the effective implementation of the innovative and import substitution cluster project in Russia, analyzes conditions, advantages and prospects in the regions.
Methods The research constitutes a thorough comparative analysis of trends in innovative activities of the Russian entities, starting from 2010.
Results We substantiate the need to create integrated forms of production in the Russian regions, meaning an innovative and import substitution cluster. Intended to embed innovative achievements and technologies into real products, the cluster will help the Russian entities offer competitive products to the global market.
Conclusions and Relevance We substantiate the advantages of setting up more adaptable forms of the cluster principles in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. We propose necessary activities to boost innovative activities by aggregating regional enterprises into clusters.


Negative consequences of economic sanctions: the boomerang effect

Filippova I.A. Ulyanovsk State Technical University, Ulyanovsk, Russian Federation ( fia282@mail.ru )

Krasil'nikova E.E. Ulyanovsk State Technical University, Ulyanovsk, Russian Federation ( studentulstu@mail.ru )

Journal: National interests: priorities and security, #5, 2016

Importance The article overviews the effect of economic sanctions, analyzes their implications and the ability to alleviate them, or, ideally, safeguard the economy through a set of governmental measures.
Objectives We analyze the substance and implications of economic sanctions imposed by the EU countries and the USA; examine the scope of economic sanctions against Russia, political escalation that caused restrictions, and consequences of economic sanctions for both opponents of this economic confrontation.
Methods The research analyzes the scope and implications of economic sanctions for Europe, Russia and the USA.
Results The research found what implications economic sanctions against Russia had and substantiated the boomerang effect since economic restrictions affected the EU countries and the USA, rather than Russia only. We studied the positive effect of sanctions as they motivated Russia to form its own resource, scientific and intellectual capabilities. The article evaluates measures the Russian Government undertook to overcome adverse effects of the economic sanctions.
Conclusions and Relevance The restrictions affected the oil and gas sector and products of dual purpose, military and civilian. Russia appeared to be unprepared to so rapid economic attack. Thus the import substitution policies were implemented post factum.


Company's sustainable growth: Relation between life cycle concepts and financial and economic factors, probability simulation

Krasil'nikova E.V. Central Economics and Mathematics Institute of Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation ( Krasilnikova_lena@list.ru )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #8, 2017

Importance The article considers the problem of company's transition to sustainable growth and investigates interrelations of its performance and life cycle phases.
Objectives The paper aims to substantiate the hypothesis about the need to develop a system-integration concept of sustainable growth, taking into account changes in financial and economic characteristics at different stages of life cycle, to identify the impact on the probability of transition to a new stage, to define significant drivers of instability.
Methods I constructed regression logit models based on panel data of public companies to assess the impact of financial and economic factors on company's growth and simulate the probability of unsustainable growth, employed methods of graphical analysis. The probability value is obtained by calculating the partial derivatives of a composite function.
Results The paper states the need to take into consideration the organization's life cycle concept while examining its condition, underpins the expediency of developing a system-integration concept to study company's growth. Using the economic and mathematical methods of analysis, I obtained qualitative and quantitative estimates of influence on life cycle phases, calculated the probability of unsustainable growth depending on financial leverage and slow growth stage.
Conclusions It is important to consider life cycle phases when studying the company's operations. Management should apply the results of probability simulation to create forecasts and scenarios of development, potential threats, and motivating factors.


Import substitution policy: An analysis of theoretical and methodological aspects

Filippova I.A. Ulyanovsk State Technical University, Ulyanovsk, Russian Federation ( fia282@mail.ru )

Krasil'nikova E.E. Ulyanovsk State Technical University, Ulyanovsk, Russian Federation ( studentulstu@mail.ru )

Journal: National interests: priorities and security, #10, 2016

Importance Considering the import-oriented model of economic development, it is especially critical for Russia to increase the domestic production, stimulate S&T advancement and offer competitive national products in the global market.
Objectives The research analyzes theoretical and methodological aspects of the import substitution policy as one of the sustainable economic growth drivers at the current stage of Russia's development. The research pursues identifying negative consequences of Russia's economic dependence on import, analyzing theoretical aspects of the import substitution policy in Russia, setting up a mechanism for the most effective implementation
Methods The article presents a comparative analysis of support to science and education in Russia and other countries in 2015.
Results We substantiate that it is necessary to shift from the import-oriented to definite export-based model of economic development. Elaborated and effective import substitution policies should be a cornerstone for such transformation. We also analyze negative aspects of dependence on import that has been aggravating for decades, thus involving the key and strategic sectors of the Russian economy. The article proposes the most efficient and appropriate mechanism to protect domestic manufacturers in the current circumstances.
Conclusions and Relevance The import substitution initiative should develop in a versatile, and profound manner. Production rates should be reached and increased not only in certain industries, but also throughout the entire economy. Import substitution is to become one of the leading doctrines of Russia's economic development.


Sentiment-driven economy in the 21st century: From rise to fall

Krasil'nikova E.E. Ulyanovsk State Technical University, Ulyanovsk, Russian Federation ( studentulstu@mail.ru )

Filippova I.A. Ulyanovsk State Technical University, Ulyanovsk, Russian Federation ( fia282@mail.ru )

Journal: National interests: priorities and security, #11, 2016

Importance National economic development has been evaluated and forecast with such indicators as production rates in economic sectors, capital inflow and outflow, investment, etc. for a long time. As internationally proved, the economic growth is shaped inter alia with economic sentiment of people.
Objectives The research analyzes economic sentiment of the population and businessmen, its impact on economic growth rates and the use of data to forecast rates of long-term growth in Russia as the main source. The research pursues identifying the substance and nature of economic sentiment, analyzing how aspirations and concerns of businessmen and population influence economic conditions.
Methods The research constitutes a comparative analysis of trends in consumer and business confidence indexes, starting from 2005 and onwards.
Results We proved the need to consider economic sentiment of the population to formulate the national policy for economic development. As the article illustrates, economic growth is spurred, among other factors, with people’s intention to increase and maintain the existing quality of living. Economic behavior of the population, such as rush and panic, tend to be a starting point for global financial crises.
Conclusions and Relevance As our main conclusions, we suggest that the forecast of economic development rates should include the sentiment of the public and business. The negative response of the latter would be taken into account when outlining measures to stabilize economy and reach a balanced economic growth.


An influence of import substitution policies on ensuring the national economic sovereignty

Filippova I.A. Ulyanovsk State Technical University, Ulyanovsk, Russian Federation ( fia282@mail.com )

Krasil'nikova E.E. Ulyanovsk State Technical University, Ulyanovsk, Russian Federation ( studentulstu@mail.ru )

Journal: National interests: priorities and security, #6, 2016

Importance Whereas Russia faces the Western economic sanctions, import substitution policies and their effective implementation gain special relevance and significance. As its domestic policy priority, Russia should undertake a combination of measures to provide the domestic market with products, which would be identical to imported ones, and equal in terms of prices and quality.
Objectives The research comprehensively examines mechanisms for implementing import substitution policies as a response to the EU and U.S. sanctions. We also identify what mechanisms Russia uses to implement the import substitution policies, priority sectors, and analyze positive and negative effects of the import substitution policies for Russia.
Methods The research represents a comparative analysis of export and import in Russia for the period from 2012 through 2015.
Results Import substitution constitutes a complicated system, a set of measures to create favorable conditions for domestic production and its development in Russia. Scientific and productive capabilities of domestic manufacturers will not advance without the State aid. We presented measures the State undertakes to create the favorable environment for domestic production.
Conclusions and Relevance Import substitution is a long, complicated and contradictory process. Import substitution may prove unreasonable for reasons, other than financial sovereignty that is regarded as a priority for any nation. To provide the market and consumers with products, that would be comparable with imported ones, the country should create appropriate conditions for effective operation and development of human, investment, scientific and productive capabilities.


Education factors and management quality as determinants of innovative development and sustainability of economic systems

Krasil'nikova E.V. Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, RAS, Moscow, Russian Federation ( Krasilnikova_lena@list.ru )

Nikonova A.A. Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, RAS, Moscow, Russian Federation ( prettyal@cemi.rssi.ru )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #33, 2015

Importance Sustainable economic development and competitiveness of economic entities and the entire national economy, as well as management skills improvement become increasingly relevant in the context of significant global technological and structural changes. Meanwhile, the role of knowledge in the fields of mathematics, engineering and science is as important as the impact of quality management on sustainability and competitiveness.
     Objectives The study aims to select priorities for devising adequate strategies and tools in relevant areas to pursue long-term sustainability and competitiveness.
     Methods The application of the system-integrated paradigm to study education factors extends the undertaken analysis to seven basic groups of factors. This approach enables to consider the influence of mental, cultural and historical factors. The factors explain the profound difference in sustainability and innovative development of various economic entities or national economies despite similar regulatory and economic environment.
     Results We have selected ten most significant global trends in education and scientific activity. Their impact on creation and absorption of knowledge and on management quality will determine long-term competitiveness and sustainability of companies and the national economic system as a whole.
     Conclusions Special human abilities and competences determine the level and quality of innovative development. Their development is influenced by multiple interrelated factors. To detect such influence, we suggest using a systems approach. The education system will produce skilled professionals and managers, only if it complies with identified factors and conditions and focuses on the multidisciplinary approach in industry, science and management.


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