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Sustainable development: Evaluation, analysis, forecasting

Lyubushin N.P. Voronezh State University, Voronezh, Russian Federation ( lubushinnp@mail.ru )

Babicheva N.E. Voronezh State University, Voronezh, Russian Federation ( sigaeva@mail.ru )

Konyshkov A.S. Atos, Moscow, Russian Federation ( alexey.konyshkov@atos.net )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #12, 2017

Importance The article considers methods, rules, evaluation techniques, analysis of and forecasting the sustainable development of economic systems.
Objectives The study aims to work out an integrated assessment methodology for sustainable development of economic systems.
Methods The methodology of the study draws on general scientific principles and research techniques, like analysis, synthesis, grouping, comparison, abstraction, generalization, analogy, and modeling.
Results We define sustainable development and the invariant that characterizes it. The paper presents an integrated methodology for assessing the sustainable development of economic systems at different hierarchical levels. It enables to link resource efficiency with the type of production development, financial stability, risk level, assessment of financial condition and sustainable development. The algorithm used in the economic analysis in the calculation of changes in material cost under a factor model of additive type illustrates the complexity and diversity of the conducted factor analysis, depending on the degree of decomposition of factors characterizing the energy intensity.
Conclusions In the context of limited resources, the need to reduce material and energy intensity of GDP and to enhance energy efficiency, the given additive model should be expanded towards incorporation of social and environmental factors.


Evaluating the impact on sustainable development of energy consumption of economic systems

Lyubushin N.P. Voronezh State University, Voronezh, Russian Federation ( lubushinnp@mail.ru )

Babicheva N.E. Voronezh State University, Voronezh, Russian Federation ( sigaeva@mail.ru )

Kozinova A.T. National Research Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod, Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation ( antonina.kozinova@gmail.com )

Konyshkov A.S. Voronezh State University, Voronezh, Russian Federation ( Alexey.Konyshkov@atos.net )

Journal: Financial Analytics: Science and Experience, #45, 2016

Importance The article studies an economic aspect of sustainable development by evaluating the efficiency of energy resource use.
Objectives The research identifies trends describing energy capacity of Gross Domestic Product, devises algorithms (models) that determine a type of sustainable development depending on the number and quality of energy consumption, and forecasts whether it would be possible to project a reduction in energy consumption of GDP.
Methods The research applies a comparison method through general and special methods of analysis, synthesis and analogy.
Results The final algorithms (model) helped to find the nexus between the efficiency of energy consumption, type of economic development, and the type of sustainable development. We also determined trends reflecting the energy production, consumption and energy output, thus forecasting whether target imperatives for reduction in energy consumption were feasible.
Conclusions and Relevance Having studied the type of sustainable development, we found out that energy consumption demonstrated both absolute sustainability and crisis in different periods. To attain target indicators for lower energy consumption, it is necessary to change energy production and consumption trends.


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