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Dynamic indicators construction of banking crisis

Karminskii A.M. Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russian Federation ( karminsky@mail.ru )

Kiselev V.Iu. Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russian Federation ( vadimkiselev.study@gmail.com )

Journal: National Interests: Priorities and Security, #15, 2014

The article offers the complex indicator of financial intensity. The author considers the results of creation of this indicator for the banking sector of Russia. The basis of the construction of this indicator is growth rates of individual indicators of banking activities that are associated with the implementation of various banking risks: liquidities, credit risk, decrease in capitalization, external shocks. The offered indicator fixes the increased financial intensity at the end of 2013 - beginning of 2014.


Collateral sufficiency as an adapt financial covenant in bank crediting

Karminskii A.M. National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russian Federation ( karminsky@mail.ru )

Khon O.D. National Research University Higher School of Economics – Saint Petersburg, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation ( okhon@hse.ru )

Journal: Finance and credit, #6, 2018

Importance The article examines the loan-to-value ratio in three dimensions. First, as a measure of leverage, helpful to understand the spread of systemic risk in the economy. Second, we identify LTV throughout financial covenants. Finally, we implement LTV to indicate the probability of default.
Objectives The goal of the paper is to study the impact of collateral sufficiency on credit risk throughout adjusted financial covenants for bank corporate loans.
Methods To conduct the research, the authors implement econometric methods, linear regressions and binary models.
Results We have revealed the prevalence of the posterior theory of the impact of the collateral sufficiency on the credit risk evaluation by corporate loans. We have also revealed that the higher credit risks, the higher collateral requirements to pledge the loans.
Conclusions and Relevance We have considered a new approach to identify collateral requirements, throughout LTV measures, as adjusted financial covenants on the Russian market. Lender’s preferences are being stronger at the time of downturns in economic activity. At the same time, economic growth neutralizes any visible behavioral favors/patterns. Hereby psychological risk components are quite essential, and need studying in modern banking.


Specifics of appraisal of M&A deals in the banking sector

Karminskii A.M. Higher School of Economics – National Research University, Moscow, Russian Federation ( karminsky@mail.ru )

Frolova E.A. Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University) of Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation ( elvinafa@gmail.com )

Khanuskova S. Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University) of Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation shanuskova@hotmail.com

Journal: Financial Analytics: Science and Experience, #45, 2016

Importance The article overviews the M&A market in the banking sector of Russia and some foreign countries in 2005–2015, and performs a comparative analysis of methods to evaluate parties to such deals.
Objectives The research analyzes the market value of public banks in Russia, starting from 2007 through 2015. The market value was assessed with the Price/Book Value ratio, and compares this value with identical ones in Eastern Europe, China, India, Brazil. We also identify the specifics in appraisal of M&A deals through a sample of the banking sector of Russia for 2005–2015. The research elaborates methods for indicative assessment and illustrates the real deal between MDM Bank and BINBANK in 2015.
Methods The research uses methods of comparative, statistical and regression analysis, and the theory of appraisal of value and banking business.
Results Banks were shown to be appraised at higher value in the market when they had higher return on equity and low additional expenses. As a common trend, we proved that retail banks were acquired at low value due to recall of their licenses, negative GDP, reduction in the return on assets and equity of the banking sector, and continuing growth in overdue debts. We also found out that most deals were of horizontal nature, with strategic investors playing an important role in the market.
Conclusions and Relevance Appraisal of credit institutions will remain a challenging issue, and large banking groups will continue acquiring smaller and medium-sized banks with high discount on capital.


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