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Reasons for post-sanctions ruble devaluation and the problem of its exchange rate optimization

Kapkanshchikov S.G. Ulyanovsk State University, Ulyanovsk, Russian Federation ( kapkansg@yandex.ru )

Kapkanshchikova S.V. Ulyanovsk State University, Ulyanovsk, Russian Federation ( kapkansv@mail.ru )

Journal: Finance and Credit, #8, 2018

Importance The article considers trends in the Russian ruble exchange rate fluctuations during the post-sanctions period from the perspective of their contradictory impact on the Russian economy.
Objectives The aim is to unveil patterns in search of the optimal ruble exchange rate, which contributes to achieving the main macroeconomic goals of contemporary Russia.
Methods We apply a dialectical method to study the common factors governing the formation of the economic policy of the government in their development.
Results The paper highlights reasons behind the post-sanctions devaluation of the Russian currency, underpins the prevailing negative impact of excessive devaluation on the dynamics of GDP and inflationary processes taking place in Russia.
Conclusions and Relevance Ascending economic development is impossible under the current exchange rate of ruble. The largest exporters of commodities, financial speculators and the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation are characterized as major beneficiaries of the transition to the floating exchange rate of ruble. Achieving the optimal exchange rate of ruble in the course of overcoming its current undervaluation is seen as a critical success factor in the Russian economy diversification and the 'Dutch disease' eradication.


Hybrid warfare as a threat to Russia's economic security, and sanctions as its main tool

Kapkanshchikov S.G. Ulyanovsk State University, Ulyanovsk, Russian Federation ( kafedra_we@inbox.ru )

Kapkanshchikova S.V. Ulyanovsk State University, Ulyanovsk, Russian Federation ( kafedra_td@mail.ru )

Journal: National Interests: Priorities and Security, #6, 2018

Importance Once Crimea and the city of Sevastopol joined the Russian Federation, the USA and EU unleashed a hybrid war against Russia, using the Western sanctions to influence it. It is critical to conduct an in-depth economic and theoretical analysis of their adverse effect mechanism.
Objectives The research is to prove close relationship of adverse effects of the sanctions and strategic defects of the budgetary, fiscal and monetary policies of the Russian Federation, thus fueling the sanctions and their consequences.
Methods The research employs a variety of methodological approaches to studying the content and tools of the hybrid warfare, focusing on the systems approach.
Conclusions and Relevance We conduct a comparative analysis of the cold war against the USSR and hybrid war against Russia, unravelling multiple tools used. As for the profound reasons for the hybrid warfare, the USA attempts to compensate for its geoeconomic lag behind China by preventing its economic alliance with Russia. We also reveal the role of color revolutions and the Overton window in the hybrid warfare mechanism. The article traces the direct and inverse relationship of the Western technological and financial sanctions and the current economic situation in Russia. The severe Dutch disease, reluctance of authorities to dramatically change the resource-based model, rigid monetary and fiscal policies engendered endogenous causes intensifying the negative socio-economic effect of the sanction-driven war against Russia.


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