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Cost barriers of diffusion of technologies of alternative power engineering in Russia

Ratner S.V. Doctor of Economics Sciences, Leading Researcher of the Laboratory of Economic Dynamics and Management of Innovations, the Institute of Problems of Management named after V.A. Trapeznikov of the Russian Academy of Sciences ( lanarat@mail.ru )

Iosifov V.V. PhD of Technical Sciences, Head of the Department of Mechanical Engineering and Motor Transport, the Kuban State Technological University ( iosifov@kubstu.ru )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #40, 2013

In many countries diffusion of technologies of renewable power restrains a number of barriers of technical, economic, institutional, legal and cultural character. In the article cost barriers of diffusion of the most mature technologies of alternative power engineering in Russia, namely conditions of their price competition in the electric power market with traditional technologies are investigated.


Study on the regularities of the development of new high-tech industries in the energy sector

Ratner S.V. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences of Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation ( lanarat@mail.ru )

Iosifov V.V. Kuban State Technological University, Krasnodar, Russian Federation ( iosifov@kubstu.ru )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #28, 2014

The paper analyzes the evolution of industrial activity of the Spanish company Gamesa, which is the world leader in wind turbine manufacturing and maintenance of wind farms. The paper discusses the main regularities of the development of the industry in the period of intensive growth and during the period of stagnation. It also considers the embedding in the emerging global technological chains of Russian manufacturers. The results obtained can be used by private economic agents (machine-building enterprises) in making investment decisions, as well as by public authorities to develop strategies for the development of renewable energy and energy engineering.


Modeling of State support measures to promote electric vehicles

Iosifov V.V. Kuban State Technological University, Krasnodar, Russian Federation ( iosifov_v@mail.ru )

Journal: Financial Analytics: Science and Experience, #2, 2018

Subject This paper deals with the effectiveness of incentive measures of State support on the market of electric vehicles.
Objectives The paper aims to evaluate the quantitative rating of different incentive measures of State support through modeling.
Methods The study applies a correlation-regression analysis, the equality test of two independent samples, and the non-parametric Mann-Whitney test.
Results The paper presents the built models of double linear regression to describe the influence of State subsidies on the purchase of electric vehicles and the influence of the level of development of the charging infrastructure on the market volume of electric vehicles. The results are confirmed through the Mann-Whitney test use.
Relevance The received models can be used for forecasting parameters of the Russian market of electric vehicles with introduction of some government support measures.


Modeling the Efficiency of the State Aid to the Development of Electric Vehicles

Iosifov V.V. Kuban State Technological University, Krasnodar, Russian Federation ( iosifov_v@mail.ru )

Journal: Digest Finance, #2, 2018

Importance This paper deals with the efficiency of governmental incentives to the market of electric vehicles.
Objectives The paper aims to quantify different governmental incentives through modeling.
Methods The study applies a correlation-regression analysis, test for equality of means for two independent samples, and the Mann-Whitney test.
Results The paper provides models of paired linear regression to describe how governmental subsidies for purchase of electric vehicles (EV) and EV charging infrastructure level influence the EV market volume. Based on the test for equality of means, I found out that preferential parking rates, access to public transport lanes and restricted driving zones, tax credits on EV purchase and preferential electric power supply tariff have no statistically significant impact on the annual EV market volume and EV dissemination. The results were verified through the Mann–Whitney test.
Conclusions and Relevance The received models can be used to forecast parameters of the Russian EV market provided that some governmental incentives are in place.


Development of the Russian market for electric vehicles: Trends, prospects, barriers

Iosifov V.V. Kuban State Technological University, Krasnodar, Russian Federation ( iosifov_v@mail.ru )

Bobylev E.E. Kuban State Technological University, Krasnodar, Russian Federation ( ebobylev@mail.ru )

Journal: Financial Analytics: Science and Experience, #11, 2017

Subject The article discusses the issues of development of the market for electric vehicles in Russia.
Objectives The article aims to analyze the status and dynamics of the Russian market for electric vehicles, consider the use of the deployment policy, and offer alternatives.
Methods For the study, we used the methods of comparative analysis, techno-economic analysis, descriptive statistics, and multiple linear regression. As an information base, we used the International Energy Agency (IEA) analytical surveys, data from major Russian automobile dealers, and the Russian Federal State Statistics Service data.
Results The article shows trends in the development of the Russian market for electric vehicles and the characteristics of its spatial structure, highlights the cost and infrastructural barriers to its development as the basic ones. We have also built and now present a model for the price of an electric car, depending on its technical specification, and show the most important parameters for demand generation.
Relevance The results obtained can be used to form federal and regional R&D and innovation support programs, as well as improve public energy efficiency policies.


International protectionism policy in developing new energy technologies

Ratner S.V. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences of RAS, Moscow, Russian Federation ( lanarat@mail.ru )

Iosifov V.V. Kuban State Technological University, Krasnodar, Russian Federation ( iosifov@kubstu.ru )

Journal: National Interests: Priorities and Security, #46, 2015

Importance The world practice of technology diffusion indicates that high-tech sectors can dynamically evolve not only due to implementing national scientific developments, but also due to calling in companies that are the leaders of high-tech production for opening joint ventures and subsidiaries. The level of high-tech production localization is a critical point.
     Objectives This research examines protectionist practices various WTO member countries use to accelerate energy technologies diffusion (wind energy case). The legislative aspects of introducing a production localization index are analyzed, as well as positive and negative effects of this practice.
     Methods This research draws upon a bibliographical analysis, statistical analysis, comparative analysis, and case studies.
     Results Localization threshold introduction has both positive and negative effects the article describes.
     Conclusions and Relevance The major wind potential of Russia and the high-volume domestic market as well as a high level of development of related industries such as metallurgy, rare earth production, energy mechanical engineering, allow assuming that introducing a threshold localization index will be an economically justifiable stimulus for the development of the national wind energy engineering.


Assessment of conformity of a region's economic growth model to the sustainable development principles through the method of non-parametric optimization

Ratner S.V. V.A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences of Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation ( lanaratner@ipu.ru )

Iosifov V.V. Kuban State Technological University, Krasnodar, Russian Federation ( iosifov_v@mail.ru )

Journal: Regional Economics: Theory and Practice, #9, 2018

Subject This article discusses the issues of measuring the degree of sustainability of economic systems development.
Objectives The article aims to develop a method of assessing the conformity of a region's economic growth model to the basic principles of sustainable development based on mathematical models of non-parametric optimization.
Methods For the study, we used a DEA technique taking into account the environmental aspect of the problem.
Results The calculation based on the statistics for 2014 identifies the regions with the optimal model of development and optimum impact on the environment, regions with economic growth potential, and the regions inefficiently using natural resources and approaching a large-scale environmental crisis.
Conclusions and Relevance The solution of the problem of environmental data envelopment analysis enables to rank regions according to the degree of ecological and economic efficiency, determine how the region's economic development model corresponds to the basic principles of sustainable development concept, and it promotes the use of the best available technologies. The proposed approach to the assessment of models of economic growth of regions can be used in the regional ecological management and at the industry branch level, when decision-making about spatial placing of production capacities.


Evaluation of the level of development of process environmental innovation

Ratner S.V. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences of Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation ( lanaratner@ipu.ru )

Iosifov V.V. Kuban State Technological University, Krasnodar, Russian Federation ( iosifov@kubstu.ru )

Journal: Financial Analytics: Science and Experience, #34, 2016

Subject The article discusses the issues of assessing the level of development of the various types of environmental innovation: product, process, organizational, and the marketing ones.
Objectives The paper aims to develop a method of indirect measuring the level of development of process environmental innovation.
Methods To develop the indirect measurement method, we used a DEA methodology. The method reduces to the solution of the problem of nonparametric optimization of multiple indicators of industrial and environmental activities of homogeneous economic agents.
Results The developed method of indirect measurement of the level of development of process ecological innovations has been validated at many electricity companies, within the framework of OAO OGK-2. The resulting estimates of the level of development of process environmental innovation of the companies surveyed go well with the results of analysis of the technological structure of production of these companies obtained by other researchers.
Conclusions The proposed method of measuring the level of development of process environmental innovation is an important contribution to the theory and methodology of the study of barriers to environmental innovation. The advantage of the method proposed: the measurement results are presented in a ratio scale, which allows both to rank companies according to the criterion of development of process ecological innovations, and to assess the definite margin of superiority of one company over another, in this aspect. The disadvantage of the approach proposed is the dependence of measurement results on the number of measured objects.


A scenario analysis of the co-directional development of innovative technology in automobile transport and power generation

Iosifov V.V. Kuban State Technological University, Krasnodar, Russian Federation ( iosifov_v@mail.ru )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #11, 2016

Subject The article considers methodological approaches to forecasting the economic and ecological effects of diffusion of innovative automobile transport technologies, i.e. electric cars and hydrogen-powered cars.
Methods I employ a scenario analysis. The forecast of changes in technical and economic parameters of primary and supporting technologies rests on learning curve models, the forecast of demand for new technologies – on time series, and the diffusion level of new technologies is determined by a variety of external factors, including the State policy. I propose several scenarios that further serve as a framework to forecast the economic and ecological effects of the technology replacement process subject to the impact of exogenous factors.
Results A simplified version of the scenario-based analysis has been tested in the Pskov oblast (a region with the highest indicators of air pollution by automobile transport per unit of GRP and per capita). I obtained quantitative estimation of pure ecological effect for the case of full diffusion of the electric car technology in the private transport sector.
Conclusions The quantitative estimations of decreasing pollution after complete replacement of private cars by electric ones prove the invalidity of concerns that positive ecological effect of new automobile technologies introduction is completely smoothed over by increased negative ecological effects at other stages of the life cycle. The increase in demand for electricity caused by the transition to new automobile technologies has been insignificant in the pilot region, and could be compensated for by increasing the use factor of existing power-generating capacities.


Strategizing for solar energy development in Russia subject to environmental impact

Ratner S.V. V.A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation ( lanaratner@ipu.ru )

Iosifov V.V. Kuban State Technological University, Krasnodar, Russian Federation ( iosifov_v@mail.ru )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #8, 2017

Subject The article considers the issues of production base development for solar energy in Russia and process chain creation, which can meet the growing demand of the domestic market and, in the long run, approach international photovoltaics markets.
Objectives The purpose of the study is to assess negative impact of various photovoltaic (PV) technologies on environment to select and support the most ecologically friendly production, standardize and identify the best available technologies.
Methods We assess the negative impact of rival PV technologies on environment, using the Life Cycle Analysis technique. Based on the CML 2001 methodology, we select the categories and quantifiable indicators of the impact. Comparative evaluation of integrated eco-efficiency of rival PV technologies was carried out using the Data Envelopment Analysis.
Results We found that cadmium telluride and copper indium selenide photovoltaic panels on film solar cells are the most ecologically efficient throughout the life cycle. Economic indicators that determine the preference of one or another technology at the same level of environmental friendliness can be derived from standard procedures for techno-economic analysis. For the rest of the PV technologies, we calculated target values of fifteen indicators of negative environmental impact, which, if achieved, provide for their eco-efficiency.
Conclusions The findings can be applied to design and amend State programs for solar energy development in Russia.


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