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Determination of regional aspects of population aging in Russia

Chereshnev V.A. Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation ( chereshnev.v.a@ya.ru )

Chistova E.V. Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation ( elvitvas@ya.ru )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #12, 2017

Subject The paper deals with the determination of specific features of population aging in Russia at the regional level.
Objectives The aim is to adapt and combine the existing approaches to demographic aging process description at the regional level.
Methods The paper presents an overview of approaches to determining the level of demographic aging. It shows that the old-age dependency ratio is the most common and obvious measure, but it is not sufficient to identify the specific aspects of the phenomenon. We offer methods to assess the scale of population aging in the region. The stages of aging are defined on the basis of the threshold metrics system, which includes such valuation parameters as the level of aging, its depth, factors and speed.
Results The findings show that problem of population aging is irrelevant for some subjects of the Russian Federation. Under the presented approach, only 60 percent of the subjects of the Russian Federation have old and very old population.
Conclusions and Relevance Trends in population aging are observed throughout Russia. Some subjects face a very acute problem of health protection of the population, rather than aging.


Assessing the economic efficiency of socially oriented government programs by simulation modeling methods

Chereshnev V.A. Institute of Immunology and Physiology, Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation ( chereshnev@duma.gov.ru )

Vasil'eva A.V. Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation ( sa840sha@mail.ru )

Korobitsyn B.A. Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation ( kba@ecko.uran.ru )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #1, 2017

Importance The main criterion for selection and approval of government programs aimed at solving social and economic problems should be an evidence-based technique to assess the economic efficiency. However, at present there are no regulations on a standard assessment, or, at least, its general (basic) principles.
Objectives The paper aims to solve urgent problems related to development and realization of methods for economic efficiency assessment of socially oriented government programs, having both scientific novelty and practical implication.
Methods For the study, we employ a Monte Carlo Simulation method to assess the impact of economic, financial and currency risks on program implementation under uncertainty, a discounting technique to discount the future value of costs and benefits associated with a project to present value. To represent expected effects of program implementation in value terms, we use the human development index.
Results The offered methodology was realized in MathCAD. We tested the methodology to assess the efficiency of Health Care Development, a government program of the Russian Federation. The obtained results enabled to conclude on the program's high expected return and average risk level.
Conclusions and Relevance Based on successful test results, we offer our methodology as a model to assess economic efficiency of other socially oriented programs, to compare and select the most effective ones under budget restrictions.


Developing and implementing a methodological approach to evaluating the economic efficiency of the State social programs

Chereshnev V.A. Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation ( chereshnev@duma.gov.ru )

Vasil'eva A.V. Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation ( sa840sha@mail.ru )

Naslunga K.S. Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation ( Kseniya_naslunga@mail.ru )

Journal: National interests: priorities and security, #29, 2015

Importance Many State programs have been implemented for the recent years. Those programs tackle contemporary socio-economic issues of Russia. Such programs should be selected and approved in line with the scientifically proven and reasonable methodology for evaluating their economic efficiency. However, there are no regulatory documents providing for typical evaluation methods or their basic principles.
     Objectives The research addresses a topical issue of developing and implementing the methodological approach to evaluating the economic efficiency of State social programs, which bring scientific novelty and high practical value.
     Methods As prescribed in the methodological approach, the efficiency of State social programs is evaluated in line with the following methodological principles: presentation of the expected program deliverables in monetary value; adjustment of the future expenses and income of the project to the current value using the discounting method; using net present value as the key evaluation indicator of the economic efficiency; using the simulation modeling method to evaluate the effect of risks on the implementation of the program under uncertainty.
     Results Using the proposed methodological approach in MathCAD, we evaluated the economic efficiency of the State program of the Russian Federation, Healthcare Development. Based on the analysis and results, we conclude that the net present value of this Program will be 95.5% positive in 2025.
     Conclusions and Relevance As the proposed methodological approach was successfully tested, we can offer it as a baseline method for evaluating the economic efficiency of other State social programs.


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