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Bernasovskaya L.I. Saint-Petersburg State Economic University (SPbSEU), St. Petersburg, Russian Federation ( Lbernasovskaya40@mail.ru )
Kormanovskaya I.R. Saint-Petersburg State Economic University (SPbSEU), St. Petersburg, Russian Federation ( email@example.com )
Journal: Regional Economics: Theory and Pactice, #1,
Subject The article focuses on the issue of establishing a risk assessment and prediction system based on a rank factor model that minimizes uncertainty in the onset of unfavorable events in the medium-and long-term planning of the region's economic development.
Objectives The article aims to develop tools for assessing and predicting the sustainable development of regions in terms of their sectoral structure by identifying the sources of regional risks, their aggregating assessment, and the priorities for innovative development.
Methods For the study, we used the methods and techniques of scientific abstraction, observation, expert evaluation, economic and statistical analysis, structural and logical analysis, and a systems approach.
Results The article presents a methodology for assessing the development of a regional economy, which is characterized by the synthesis of dynamic regulations and the use of non-parametric rank methods. This methodology enables the analysis of specific quantitative characteristics of the development, which allows the overall movement path to be controlled by growth rate of each particular indicator included in the dynamic regulation.
Conclusions To achieve innovative development, it is necessary to measure the degree of economic dynamism of the regional system by improving its structure. From the management paradigm perspective, risk ranking is required in terms of the impact on the region's socioeconomic development.
Bernasovskaya L.I. Branch of Saint-Petersburg State University of Economics, Veliky Novgorod, Russian Federation ( firstname.lastname@example.org )
Kormanovskaya I.R. Branch of Saint-Petersburg State University of Economics, Veliky Novgorod, Russian Federation ( email@example.com )
Journal: Regional Economics: Theory and Pactice, #6,
Importance The nonlinear character of regional economic development, expressed by diverse macroeconomic indicators, determines its cyclicality, dynamics of structural changes and enterprise proportions. It involves the necessity to regularly research the structural dynamics with the purpose to stabilize the regional economic and social system and change over to an innovation economy model.
Objectives The article covers an important issue of estimation and forecasting of qualitative shifts of the regional economy. The main task is to set up a list of criteria and exponents.
Methods We are expounding our own practical problem-solving approach based on a structural-logical research method. The figured system of the exponents of valuation and forecasting of structural changes bases on an indicator system construction. The indicators reflect three aspects: the first aspect concerns the analysis of exponent systems, needed for estimation of region's innovative activity; the second one concerns the cyclicality estimation, which requires both qualitative and quantitative characteristics; the third aspect concerns the forecasting of structural changes in the long-term period. Such an approach to the determination of the suggested exponent list makes it possible to get reliable forecast. The actual data from the regional statistics department of the Novgorod region have confirmed the forecast.
Results Using the selected indicators of the Novgorod region, we have analyzed and predicted structural changes of the reproduction economic sectors. This brought us to a conclusion that the management of structural changes in the region's economy is not effective enough. The structural changes throughout all the exponents, featuring the development of the region's economy, were multidirectional and of regressive nature. The main reason of such a situation is the deficient budgeting and internal investing. That will not allow ensuring the innovation breakthrough till 2030.
Conclusions and Relevance We are submitting certain operational guidelines for an innovation scenario of the region's development. The guidelines can be used by the executive authorities for organizational policy improvement.
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