SEARCH
 

Search

 

Результаты поиска 1 - 5 из 5
Начало | Пред. | 1 | След. | Конец


Economic and statistical analysis of the cost structure of regional information and communication technology

Arzhenovskii S.V. Rostov State Economic University (RINH), Rostov-on-Don, Russian Federation ( sarzhenov@gmail.com )

Sountoura L. Rostov State Economic University (RINH), Rostov-on-Don, Russian Federation ( sountoural@mail.ru )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #28, 2014

The article suggests use of the method of shift-share analysis to identify regions that have competitive advantages in the field of information and communication technologies in comparison with the country’s economy as a whole. The article sets groups of regions on the allocation capacity. The authors propose to use the results in the working out of regional and federal programs for development of information and communications industry.


Priorities of the long-term socio-economic development of the region: Econometric models of production functions

Arzhenovskii S.V. Rostov State University of Economics, Rostov-on-Don, Russian Federation ( arzhenov@gmail.com )

Shekhovtsov R.V. Rostov State University of Economics, Rostov-on-Don, Russian Federation ( hekrom71@gmail.com )

Journal: Regional Economics: Theory and Pactice, #10, 2016

Importance The article studies the changes rate of the long-term socio-economic development of a region by its economic activity, using the Rostov oblast as a case study.
Objectives The article aims to estimate the production functions and identify resource opportunities for economic activities of the region.
Methods For the study, we used the method of regression modeling, and after-modeling economic analysis of production functions of Cobb-Douglas type. We used the Federal State Statistics Service in the Rostov oblast statistics data for 2004–2014 as an information base of the work.
Results We built production functions for all economic activities of the Rostov oblast, including restrictions on the coefficients of elasticity. We obtained statistically significant production function equations for 14 of the 32 types of economic activity, and calculated the average and marginal products of factors for certain economic activities.
Conclusions and Relevance The estimates of production functions in the Rostov oblast for economic activities are applicable to determine priorities when developing a strategy for socio-economic development of the region. For certain types of activities, we disclosed an analytical capability for economic analysis of production functions based on the output elasticity estimates calculated by factors. We found that for most important functions, the rate of output growth by activities is higher than by factors.


Logit models to assess the risk of fraudulent misstatements in financial statements of Russian banks

Arzhenovskii S.V. Rostov State University of Economics (RSUE), Rostov-on-Don, Russian Federation ( sarzhenov@gmail.com )

Bakhteev A.V. Rostov State University of Economics (RSUE), Rostov-on-Don, Russian Federation ( a_bakhteev@mail.ru )

Slobodyan A.S. Southern Federal University, Rostov-on-Don, Russian Federation ( a.slobodyan2011@yandex.ru )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #8, 2017

Importance The article investigates the possibilities to apply regression models when performing the audit procedures to assess the risk of material misstatement in financial statement due to fraud.
Objectives The aim is to develop mathematical models enabling to assess the risk of material misstatement arising from fraud during the financial audit of Russian banks.
Methods We overview current studies dedicated to model-building to assess the risk of fraud in financial statements, perform a praxeological analysis of information on reasons for financial organizations’ license revocation published by the Bank of Russia. The paper employs econometric modeling using panel data in Stata.
Results We reviewed the existing regression models that help identify and assess the risk of material misstatement in financial statements, prepared a list of reasons for license withdrawal of Russian banks associated with financial statement fraud, offered a five-factor logit model to assess the said risk in financial statements of Russian commercial banks.
Conclusions and Relevance If used, the model will increase the efficiency of audit procedures for assessing the risk of material misstatement due to fraud in the course of financial audit of Russian banks.


Military expenditures and economic growth: Econometric estimates of nexus

Arzhenovskii S.V. Rostov State University of Economics (RSUE), Rostov-on-Don, Russian Federation ( sarzhenov@gmail.com )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #9, 2016

Importance The article addresses the influence of European countries' military expenditure on the economic growth.
Objectives The purpose of the study is to build econometric models to identify the areas of influence of military expenditures on the economic growth. The information base of the research is the panel data on 38 European countries based on sources from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute and the World Bank for 1992–2014.
Methods The study employs the econometric methods of estimating the panel data models with one-way and two-way fixed effects in the error and the Swamy approach with random coefficients.
Results I reviewed empirical studies on economic effects of military expenditures within several theoretical areas. The paper specifies and identifies the Feder–Ram models, the modified Solow model and the model of endogenous growth. A statistically significant effect of military expenditures on economic growth is obtained under the Solow model. The estimation of the effects of military expenditures on economic growth is helpful to determine strategic priorities of European countries’ development, and to justify the amount of military expenditures in budget planning.
Conclusions The findings show that five countries, i.e. Russia, France, Great Britain, Germany and Italy have military expenditures, which in 2014 accounted for almost three fourths of total expenditures of all countries in the sample. The share of military expenditures in Russia's GDP from 1998 to 2014 increased 2.1 times. The share of France, Great Britain demonstrates a descending trend. The estimation of the effect of military expenditures on economic growth of European countries is negative, small, and significant only for the modified Solow model.


Price behavior forecasting and investment in gold risk assessment

Arzhenovskii S.V. Rostov State Economic University (RINH), Rostov-on-Don, Russian Federation ( sarzhenov@gmail.com )

Journal: Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, #20, 2015

Subject The article studies the price behavior in the gold market as gold is a reserve metal for the world economy.
     Objectives The purpose of the study is to obtain prediction estimates of gold price, to assess the risk of investing in gold, and to perform an econometric analysis to identify the factors having effect on the gold price.
     Methods The methodology base includes the analysis of trends, seasonality, and techniques to reveal autoregressive time series patterns of an isolated time series. To study the of multivariate time series, I applied econometric techniques of cointegration and vector autoregressive modeling. The information base of the research includes the monthly data on the gold prices per gram and on a number of macroeconomic indicators, like the Dow Jones index, monetary gold reserves of Russia, the dollar exchange rate, the refinance rate of the Federal Reserve, inflation in the United States.
     Results I have developed a trend-seasonal autocorrelation model to predict the dynamics of the gold price in view of the 2008 crisis, a and vector autoregressive model with the error correction mechanism for a multivariate time series.
     Conclusions and Relevance Under the model, the short-term forecast of gold price has an average relative error of 3.8%. The econometric modeling shows that the gold price is significantly determined by the Dow Jones Index, monetary gold reserves of Russia, the US inflation rate and the refinance rate of the Federal Reserve System, as well as by long-term market mechanisms of price adjustment. For the studied time period, the estimated risk of investing in gold is 11.98% at the level of reliability of 0.99.


Результаты поиска 1 - 5 из 5
Начало | Пред. | 1 | След. | Конец


Отсортировано по релевантности | Сортировать по дате