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Innovational-technological potential of region: questions of an estimation and dynamics

Akberdina V. V. candidate of economic sciences, senior lecturer, Ural branch of the Russian academy of sciences

Journal: Regional Economics: Theory and Practice, #23, 2009

In the article the questions of an estimation of innovational-technological potential of region are considered from the point of view of the resource and the productive approaches, the system of «resources» and «results of use» parameters of potential is opened. The elements of innovational potential productivity, dynamics of parameters have allowed the author to formulate mechanisms of increase the innovational-technological potential efficiency in a region, to determine character, forms and methods of technological development with the purpose of correct innovational policy.


Scenario approach to develop long-term strategy for the region (the Sverdlovsk Region)

Ogloblin A.A. candidate of economic sciences, Deputy Minister of Economy and Labor of Sverdlovsk Region

Akberdina V.V. candidate of economic sciences, senior lecturer, Ural branch of the Russian academy of sciences

Journal: Regional Economics: Theory and Practice, #29, 2009

The need for the submission of the prospects for scenario development in the region due to the existing single-mindedness social-economic situation. These uncertainties and risks associated with foreign economic conditions, state of the production base of industrial enterprises, multi-development prospects due to the collision of many forces that pursue the interests of multidirectional and, accordingly, have a fundamentally different direction of development.


Regions of Russia: the classification on the grounds self-development

Lavrikova J.G. doctor of science, Institute of Economics, UB RAS ( k515l@mail.ru )

Akberdina V.V. candidate of science, Institute of Economics, UB RAS ( akb_vic@mail.ru )

Dushin A.V. candidate of science, Institute of Economics, UB RAS ( dushin.a@ursmu.ru )

Sidorova E.N. candidate of science, Institute of Economics, UB RAS ( katelen@mail.ru )

Tatarkin D.A. candidate of science, Institute of Economics, UB RAS ( tatarkin@mail.ru )

Journal: Regional Economics: Theory and Practice, #19, 2010

The article presents the methodology of classification of regions on the grounds of self-development and the results of classification. The method is based on the author's interpretation of the concept of «self-development» of regions and includes a two-tiered classification procedure. The first level is based on assessing the level of self-development, the second level - in assessing the quality of self-development. Scientific novelty of the method is a methodological approach, which implies the existence of a formal level of self-development, calculated on the basis of statistical data and qualitative characteristics of self-development, indicating a degree of achievement of self-development of the region


Econometric modeling and forecasting of economic security of the cross-sectoral complex

Akberdina V.V. Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation ( akb_vic@mail.ru )

Smirnova O.P. Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation ( olysmirnova95@gmail.com )

Journal: National Interests: Priorities and Security, #6, 2018

Importance The article unfolds capabilities of econometric models to forecast the economic security of a cross-sectoral complex.
Objectives We formulate the definition of cross-sectoral complex, overview the principal methods of econometric modeling and forecasting of trends in regional sectoral markets. The article indicates the main components of the economic security in the cross-sectoral complex and analyzes how economic security constituents influence the integral indicator.
Methods The research is based on the methodology for forecasting structural, spatial and timing trends in cross-sectoral complexes, including new and specified modeling and forecasting methods.
Results The article defines the terms cross-sectoral complex, economic security of the Russian cross-sectoral complex. We prove the economic security level of certain enterprises depends on changes in the network chain. We assess the effect of networked production enterprises on the construction sector.
Conclusions and Relevance Setting up a large-scale simulation model is the most complicated approach to forecasting the economic security of the cross-sectoral complex. Econometric modeling and forecasting procedures help construct, assess and make decisions with big non-linear data. The system of non-linear equations can be simultaneous, while containing dynamic and lagging data. Econometric modeling facilitate automated computations of any derivatives needed for assessment and modeling purposes.


Application of the Committee Machine Method to Forecast the Movement of Exchange Rates and Oil Prices

Akberdina V.V. Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation ( akb_vic@mail.ru )

Chernavin N.P. Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation ( chernavin_fedor@mail.ru )

Chernavin F.P. Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation ( chernavin_fedor@mail.ru )

Journal: Finance and credit, #46, 2017

Importance This article discusses the forecasting of financial asset prices considering the most liquid and known financial assets of currency and commodity markets, such as currency pairs of USD/RUB, EUR/RUB, CAD/USD and the Brent crude oil.
Objectives The paper aims to show that in financial markets, a great number of traders and analysts are shaping the demand for new interesting analytical tools, develop a methodology for establishing committee machine designs and principles of their use in financial markets, and show real practical results of the committee machine method use.
Methods To forecast the price of financial assets, we used a committee machine method based on majority voting. Data from the Moscow Exchange (MOEX) and FOREX market are used as a source of information on market prices.
Results The paper shows the conditions for the applicability of the decision rules received in real trade. For illustration purposes, the decisions given in the article are analyzed by income from January 7, 2010 to May 23, 2017.
Conclusions and Relevance The paper concludes that the committee machine method is applicable as a tool for forecasting real time financial asset prices.


Application of the Committee Machine Method to Forecast the Movement of Exchange Rates and Oil Prices

Akberdina V.V. Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation ( akb_vic@mail.ru )

Chernavin N.P. Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation ( ch_k@mail.ru )

Chernavin F.P. Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation ( chernavin_fedor@mail.ru )

Journal: Digest Finance, #1, 2018

Importance This article discusses the forecasting of financial asset prices considering the most liquid and known financial assets of currency and commodity markets, such as currency pairs of USD/RUB, EUR/RUB, CAD/USD and the Brent crude oil.
Objectives The paper aims to show that in financial markets, a great number of traders and analysts are shaping the demand for new interesting analytical tools, develop a methodology for establishing committee machine designs and principles of their use in financial markets, and show real practical results of the committee machine method use.
Methods To forecast the price of financial assets, we used a committee machine method based on majority voting. Data from the Moscow Exchange (MOEX) and FOREX market are used as a source of information on market prices.
Results The paper shows the conditions for the applicability of the decision rules received in real trade. For illustration purposes, the decisions given in the article are analyzed by income from January 7, 2010 to May 23, 2017.
Conclusions and Relevance The paper concludes that the committee machine method is applicable as a tool for forecasting real time financial asset prices.


The new industrialization steady-state path of the Russian regions

Akberdina V.V. Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation ( akb_vik@mail.ru )

Korovin G.B. Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation ( grig_korovin@mail.ru )

Journal: Regional Economics: Theory and Practice, #1, 2016

Importance The article considers the issues of deindustrialization and re-industrialization under stirring up the development of old and new industrial regions of the Russian Federation.
Objectives The study aims to identify the causes of the deindustrialization in Russia, to determine the most promising regions from the viewpoint of industrial development, the possibilities, the development path dependency in the light of new industrialization vector.
Methods For the study, we used a data analysis of regional statistics, policy and strategy documents, an indicative analysis and a model of innovation resonance.
Results Our study highlighted groups of regions: new industrial regions, old industrial regions, as well as the regions that strengthened their manufacturing industries. Differentiating the industrial regions allowed a hypothesis about the uniqueness of the trajectory of development of the region that takes into account resource, structural and institutional features. We propose to use an innovation resonance model for modelling such individual paths in the regions' development.
Conclusions and Relevance The analysis of the development potential of industrial regions confirmed the hypothesis concerning the need to develop an individual trajectory of development of individual types of regions. The study showed that the industrial complex of Russia, as a whole, has a high innovative potential, but there is a significant disparity of innovation dynamics. The most important catalyst for innovative resonance should be the functional industrial policy carried out in the regions.


Applying the committee machine method to forecast responses of oil prices to changes in oil reserves

Akberdina V.V. Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation ( akb_vic@mail.ru )

Chernavin N.P. Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation ( ch_k@mail.ru )

Chernavin F.P. PAO Sberbank, Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation ( chernavin_fedor@mail.ru )

Journal: Finance and credit, #5, 2018

Subject The article addresses oil price forecasting, being very important for all financial market actors as oil is an essential asset and any changes in oil prices have a direct influence on the entire financial markets industry.
Objectives The purposes of the study are to describe the logic of developing the analytical and forecasting methods, which are used on financial markets; to devise a committee machine methodology to analyze data from financial markets; to build a real committee machine model for oil price forecasting.
Methods To forecast oil prices, we apply the committee machine method with majority logic. Main sources of information on market prices and oil reserves include websites of FINAM company, Investing.com, and Bloomberg analytical platform.
Results Constructed committee machines with majority logic of 3 and 5 members are the results of the research. To build the models, we analyzed intraday quotes on the day of the EIA report publishing and changes in oil supplies from 11 February 2009 to 9 August 2017. Based on the analysis and comparison of the models' quality, we built a model to forecast heightened volatility of oil prices after the EIA report release.
Conclusions The findings show that the committee machine method can be used as a tool to forecast oil price changes.


Network-based complementary production operations: Economic security and sectoral markets

Akberdina V.V. Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation ( akb_vic@mail.ru )

Smirnova O.P. Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation ( olysmirnova95@gmail.com )

Journal: National Interests: Priorities and Security, #9, 2017

Importance The article explores key elements of economic security, including productive, financial, innovative, investment, social and environmental potential of network-based complementary production operations.
Objectives We formulate the definition of the regional sectoral market, determine key methods for studying and forecasting structural, spatial and timing trends of regional sectoral markets. The article specifies the concept of network-based complementary production operations, analyzes a growth in such production in the economy. We point out basic elements of economic security for network-based complementary production operations, and review how economic security elements influence the integral indicator.
Methods The article overviews the methodology for forecasting structural, spatial and timing trends in sectoral markets, including new and refined methods for analyzing and forecasting complementary production operations, i.e. reproductive, institutional, synergistic approaches.
Results We propose our own definition of regional sectoral market, economic security in network-based complementary production operations, specify the definition of network-based complementary production operations. The article sets out general points of the method for evaluating the efficiency of the sectoral market, assess rates of indicators reflecting the economic security potential of network-based complementary production. Economic security of standalone production can be influenced by changes in the network chain. We assess the extent to which network-based production operations influence the construction industry.
Conclusions and Relevance As the estimated integral indicator of economic security shows, it changes like economic security does in network-based complementary production operations. Hence, economic security of the construction industry will significantly depend on the way complementary sector will develop.


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